A guerra no Médio Oriente “derrubou” o mundo? O presidente do FMI alerta: o crescimento económico abranda, a inflação agrava-se!

Finance News Agency, April 7th (Editor: Huang Junzhi)
Local time Monday (6th), International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Kristalina Georgieva stated that the Middle East war will lead to increased inflation and a slowdown in global economic growth.

The nearly six-week-long conflict between the US and Iran has triggered one of the most severe disruptions to global energy supplies in history. Due to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz (a key passage for one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas transportation), millions of barrels of oil production have been forced to halt.

The IMF plans to release a new “World Economic Outlook” next Tuesday (14th). According to Georgieva, even if the conflict is resolved quickly, the IMF will still revise down economic growth forecasts and revise up inflation expectations.

In a blog post on March 30th, the IMF hinted that due to asymmetric shocks caused by the war and tightening financial conditions, it might lower its economic growth outlook. Without the war, the organization originally expected a slight upward revision—global economic growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.

“On the contrary, now all paths lead to higher prices and slower growth,” Georgieva said.

She further pointed out that the war has reduced global oil supply by 13%, causing chain reactions in oil and natural gas transportation, as well as related supply chains such as helium and fertilizers.

It is also noteworthy that Georgieva believes that even if hostilities end quickly and the economy recovers swiftly, it will still lead to a “relatively small” downward revision of growth forecasts and an upward revision of inflation forecasts. If the war persists for a long time, the impacts on inflation and economic growth will be greater.

IMF Spring Meetings to be Held Soon

Next week, the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington are expected to mainly discuss this war, where financial officials from around the world will gather.

Georgieva added that poor, vulnerable countries without energy reserves will be hit hardest, noting that many countries have little fiscal space to help their populations cope with rising prices caused by the war.

She also further stated that the IMF has received some financing aid requests from certain countries, and the organization can increase some existing loan programs to meet these countries’ needs. Georgieva did not specify which countries, but 85% of IMF member countries are energy importers.

It is evident that the impact of this attack is asymmetric; energy-importing countries are most affected, but even energy-exporting countries like Qatar have felt the effects of Iran’s attacks on their production facilities.

Georgieva said Qatar expects it will take three to five years to restore about 17% of its natural gas production due to the damage caused by the war. The International Energy Agency reports that 72 energy facilities have been damaged, with one-third severely affected.

“Even if the war stops today, it will have lasting negative impacts on other parts of the world,” she said.

“Food Concerns”

Georgieva stated that the IMF is also in consultations with the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization regarding food security issues.

WFP indicated in mid-March that if the war continues until June, hundreds of millions will face severe hunger. Georgieva said that the IMF has not yet seen a food crisis, but such a situation could occur if fertilizer supplies are blocked.