$BTC Short-term market movements should not be chased; pay attention to the testing of key resistance and support levels.

BTC last month closed with an inverted T bullish candlestick. Generally speaking, this is not a continuation of a decline but rather a need to fill the needle tip, which is consistent with my analysis of the weekly pattern in early March. After consecutive bearish candles, an inverted T pattern appears, indicating that during the rebound there is selling pressure, but it is not enough to turn the candlestick bearish. The bottom has buying interest, which is the result of testing upper resistance. Next, there may be a need to fill the gap, but this is not absolute.

Of course, it is only the beginning of the month, and the market still has many variables, especially against the backdrop of serious geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran. Short-term price movements are almost entirely driven by news. Since the continuous retests without breaking below 66,000, the market has moved sideways upwards. Yesterday, negotiations were announced, and funds flooded into risk markets, causing a sharp short-term surge. The market can spike on a single news event or plummet on a single missile strike.

Therefore, in recent short-term trading, control your positions and risks. Overall, the market remains oscillating within the 66,000-76,000 range, with no clear trend emerging. As long as it stays within this range, the bullish and bearish shifts are very rapid and common. However, I have always held a bias: ultimately, it is necessary to sweep below 59,909. Only after acquiring liquidity at lower levels, from various perspectives, will it be more conducive to a major rally later.

Be aware that short-term positive news may not last long; the market will eventually return to its own rhythm. Yesterday, a strong surge to 72,773 tested the price gap after the previous decline. The price reached the upper band resistance, and a bearish close today is not surprising. But this is the first decline after the rally. If a new high is falsely broken through again, it would be the best opportunity to short. That is, if the price rises again to above 73,000 and then falls below 72,770, it signals a perfect short entry. If it breaks through without retesting, it will continue higher. Watch the 70,600 level; if it falls below today, it will directly turn into a weak oscillation. If a small rebound occurs at this level, it can be short-term longed.

In summary, the recent surge driven by news is usually not sustainable. The market remains in a large-range oscillation structure, with key resistance at 73,000-74,000. Watching for false breakouts at this level can allow for medium-term shorts. If it breaks and stabilizes, it may fill the monthly needle tip. Short-term support is around 70,600; if broken, it will directly shift into a weak oscillation. A rebound from this level indicates a secondary rally and short-term long positions. However, regardless of how the market develops or surges, I still have a bias to revisit the previous low. I believe only after completely clearing the liquidity of the current bullish wave can a better bottom be formed for accumulation, paving the way for higher highs in the future. Otherwise, everything seems less rational and rushed.