Por que o plano de redistribuição de distritos do Texas não é uma aposta garantida

WASHINGTON (AP) — O Texas deu início à batalha de redistribuição deste ano ao desenhar um novo mapa eleitoral para a Câmara dos Representantes, concebido para reforçar os Republicanos nas eleições de meio de mandato. Agora, com as primárias em curso, as esperanças do partido dependem de uma questão-chave — saber se os eleitores que ajudaram a eleger o Presidente Donald Trump há dois anos vão aparecer para apoiar outros candidatos republicanos quando ele não estiver em disputa.

O novo mapa está suposto ajudar os Republicanos a conquistarem cinco lugares atualmente detidos pelo Partido Democrata, um alvo definido por Trump. Se tiverem sucesso, os Democratas representarão apenas oito dos 38 distritos do estado, abaixo dos 13 atuais.

Os Republicanos perseguiram este objetivo com uma tática chamada “cracking” (“fragmentação”), que consiste em espalhar eleitores com tendência democrata por distritos que incluem mais eleitores com tendência republicana. Assim, torna-se mais difícil para os Democratas juntarem uma maioria em corridas individuais para o Congresso.

Mas a matemática por trás disso não é tão simples. Prever se determinados eleitores se inclinam mais para a esquerda ou para a direita, ou se vão votar, é complexo, e errar pode ter consequências.

Uma abordagem comum é olhar para a eleição geral mais recente. A lógica é simples: Como a expressão mais recente das preferências dos eleitores, oferece o retrato mais atualizado do eleitorado.

                        Histórias relacionadas
                    
                

        
    
    
    
    







    
        

                
                    



    
        


  




    




    





    



    




    




    


    





                    
                        3 MIN DE LEITURA
                    

        
    
    
    
    




    

    


    

    
        

            
            
            
                        Um soldado dos EUA tenta impedir a deportação da esposa depois de ela ter sido detida numa base militar do Louisiana
            

        
    
    
    
    

    

    
    







    
    
        
        
    
    
    
    
        

            3 MIN READ

15

                        5 MIN DE LEITURA
                    

        
    
    
    
    




    

    


    

    
        

            
            
            
                        A destruição ameaçada das centrais de energia do Irão por parte de Trump poderá ser considerada um crime de guerra, dizem especialistas
            

        
    
    
    
    

    

    
    







    
    
        
        
    
    
    
    
        

            5 MIN READ

76

                        4 MIN DE LEITURA
                    

        
    
    
    
    




    

    


    

    
        

            
            
            
                        Um vídeo lança nova luz sobre um tiroteio envolvendo um agente da ICE em Minneapolis após as acusações contra 2 homens terem sido anuladas
            

        
    
    
    
    

    

    
    







    
    
        
        
    
    
    
    
        

            4 MIN READ

22

The new map is more likely to deliver those five seats to the GOP if Texans vote the same way they did in the 2024 presidential election — that is, Trump voters stick with Republicans and Kamala Harris voters stick with Democrats. Under that assumption, seats like the new 28th and 34th Districts, which are currently represented by Democrats, would flip to Republican control.

Ler mais 

But any single election is also shaped by its broader political environment. Was the incumbent party unpopular? How did voters feel about the economy?

In the case of 2024, those answers are “yes” and “bad.” The election was a strong one for Republicans nationwide, and especially for Trump. An Associated Press analysis finds that if voters in 2026 were to cast ballots the same way they did in the 2024 presidential race, most of those races would not be particularly close. Only four would have margins within 15 percentage points.

However, applying the results of a more Democratic-leaning election to the new districts makes the picture appear more muddled. If voters revert to their 2020 presidential preferences, Republicans will have a harder time gaining all five seats.

When looking at 2020 presidential results on the new map instead of 2024, districts along the southern border, which have a high proportion of Hispanic voters, shift from narrow Republican margins to narrow Democratic ones. Others, such as districts in and around Dallas, move from strongly Republican to more competitive, though still GOP-leaning. Under 2020 voting patterns, nine districts would have margins within 15 points.

To be clear, some seats — like a Dallas-area seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Marc Veasey, which has been stretched to include more Republican-leaning voters — include enough Republican-leaning areas that even 2020-style voting would not keep them in the Democratic column.

Rather than seek reelection in the redder version of his district, Veasey is retiring from Congress.

“The city of Fort Worth has no Democratic representation,” Veasey said of the new maps.

“It’s going to be sad,” Veasey added. “I feel terrible.”

The question will be whether voters Trump picked up in 2024 will stick with his party in the midterms. While the country as a whole shifted to the right in 2024 compared with 2020, some demographic groups moved more sharply than others. Hispanic voters in particular — who are heavily represented along the border and in several Texas cities — supported Trump at higher rates than they had four years earlier.

There are warning signs for this plan, particularly in heavily Hispanic areas: Even as Trump made double-digit improvements in his margins along the southern border, those voters also returned Democratic incumbent Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez to Congress. Both are running again in reconstituted districts.

Ultimately, the success of Texas’ new congressional map hinges on a central uncertainty: whether 2024 marked a durable political realignment or a high-water mark for Republican gains among key constituencies. The coming primaries won’t answer that question on their own — but they will offer the first clues as to whether the map’s architects bet correctly.