Futuros
Aceda a centenas de contratos perpétuos
TradFi
Ouro
Plataforma de ativos tradicionais globais
Opções
Hot
Negoceie Opções Vanilla ao estilo europeu
Conta Unificada
Maximize a eficiência do seu capital
Negociação de demonstração
Introdução à negociação de futuros
Prepare-se para a sua negociação de futuros
Eventos de futuros
Participe em eventos para recompensas
Negociação de demonstração
Utilize fundos virtuais para experimentar uma negociação sem riscos
Lançamento
CandyDrop
Recolher doces para ganhar airdrops
Launchpool
Faça staking rapidamente, ganhe potenciais novos tokens
HODLer Airdrop
Detenha GT e obtenha airdrops maciços de graça
Launchpad
Chegue cedo ao próximo grande projeto de tokens
Pontos Alpha
Negoceie ativos on-chain para airdrops
Pontos de futuros
Ganhe pontos de futuros e receba recompensas de airdrop
Investimento
Simple Earn
Ganhe juros com tokens inativos
Investimento automático
Invista automaticamente de forma regular.
Investimento Duplo
Aproveite a volatilidade do mercado
Soft Staking
Ganhe recompensas com staking flexível
Empréstimo de criptomoedas
0 Fees
Dê em garantia uma criptomoeda para pedir outra emprestada
Centro de empréstimos
Centro de empréstimos integrado
Mais
Aprofundar a “barreira” do “vinho antigo”: Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong Shandong 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Pergunta à IA · Como é que a reserva de vinho antigo do Shede (Sêder) pode lançar as bases para a recuperação da indústria em 2026?
A receita da Anta ultrapassa 80 mil milhões
As ações A voltam a registar uma loucura sem sentido
Fonte丨Deep Blue Finanças
Autor丨Yang Bo
Em 2025, para a indústria do baijiu, foi um ano especialmente desafiante. A pressão coletiva sobre os mercados de baijiu de gama alta e de gama média-alta é um facto objetivo, e a indústria entrou num período de ajustamento profundo.
Perante a volatilidade do ciclo, a maioria das empresas de bebidas alcoólicas opta por “recuar as linhas de batalha, perder menos para ganhar”, e a defesa passiva tornou-se a corrente principal. Mas, como uma das “Seis Flores” da província de Sichuan, a indústria de bebidas alcoólicas da Shede, pelo contrário, mostra uma firmeza estratégica de “não seguir a tendência, olhar para o longo prazo”, apresentando um desempenho melhor do que o nível geral da indústria.
De acordo com o relatório anual, graças ao “vinho antigo” como estratégia central, a Shede registou uma redução acentuadamente menor, ano contra ano, na receita e no lucro líquido em 2025, evidenciando uma resiliência operacional contínua. A empresa alcançou uma receita operacional de 4,419 mil milhões de yuan, e um lucro líquido atribuível aos acionistas de 223 milhões de yuan, mantendo rentabilidade positiva. O fluxo de caixa das atividades operacionais cresceu 26,08% em comparação com o ano anterior, e a “base” operacional foi ainda mais restaurada. No período de ajustamento da indústria, a Shede fornece um exemplo positivo raro para as empresas de baijiu de gama média-alta.
1
Ajustamento profundo da indústria,
Shede mantém resiliência na adversidade
Em 2025, a pressão sobre o mercado de baijiu foi significativa. O relatório “Pesquisa Intermédia sobre o Mercado de Baijiu Chinês de 2025”, publicado conjuntamente pela China Alcoholic Beverages Association e pela KPMG, mostra que, na primeira metade de 2025, a inversão de preços tornou-se evidente nos produtos na faixa de 800—1500 yuan; a faixa de 500—800 yuan enfrenta maior dificuldade de sobrevivência, e as principais faixas de preço de consumo no mercado desceram da faixa de 300—500 yuan no passado para 100—300 yuan. Com tal ambiente industrial, o mercado de gama média-alta enfrenta em geral pressão, mas a Shede mostra uma capacidade de resistência ao ciclo mais forte.
No lado dos produtos, a Shede conseguiu um enquadramento virtuoso de “manter a gama alta e crescer o segmento de massas”. No mercado de gama média-alta, a empresa consolidou a posição de mercado da sua gama principal “Pinwei Shede” (品味舍得). Além disso, construiu com prioridade o marco de valor de gama alta “Cangpin Shede 10 anos”. Durante o ano, este produto conquistou vários prémios de destaque, incluindo o ouro no International Spirits Challenge. Os pontos fortes de crescimento concentraram-se no canal de consumo de massas. As vendas de álcool comuns atingiram 733 milhões de yuan, um aumento de 5,75% em termos homólogos. Entre os principais produtos que se destacaram, estiveram o T68 de Taopai (沱牌特级T68) e o Qujiu (沱牌曲酒), que tiveram um desempenho de mobilização em vendas particularmente brilhante, tornando-se um estabilizador importante para os resultados.
No que toca à implementação de canais, em 2025 a Shede continuou a aprofundar o layout em todos os canais, centrando-se nas bases e nos mercados-chave, e otimizando o sistema de distribuidores. Embora o número total de distribuidores tenha sido ligeiramente reduzido, a estrutura ficou ainda mais eficiente, e os mercados-base e os mercados-chave foram ainda mais concentrados. Além disso, o canal offline KA adicionou dezenas de milhares de lojas, alargando ainda mais o alcance da marca. Particularmente impressionante foi a explosão do canal de e-commerce: a receita anual do e-commerce atingiu 604 milhões de yuan, com um crescimento homólogo significativo de 35,46%. Isto recriou um polo de crescimento online e acrescentou à empresa um “novo motor” para o desenvolvimento futuro.
Em termos de redução de custos e melhoria de eficiência, a Shede impulsionou uma gestão mais refinada das operações. Segundo os dados do relatório financeiro, em 2025 as despesas com vendas da empresa foram de 1,140 mil milhões de yuan, uma descida de 10,68% em comparação com o ano anterior; as despesas de gestão foram de 478 milhões de yuan, uma queda de 12,39% em termos homólogos. Através da substituição de dirigentes e da otimização organizacional, a Shede reforçou a resiliência da organização e, ao mesmo tempo, forneceu garantias para a implementação estável da estratégia do vinho antigo.
Além disso, a Shede tem sempre dado prioridade à devolução aos acionistas. Nos últimos anos, a percentagem de dividendos tem aumentado continuamente. Em 2022, a taxa de pagamento de dividendos foi de 29,65%; em 2023, 40,22%; em 2024, 40,91%, mostrando uma tendência de aumento ano após ano. Após a divulgação do relatório financeiro de 2025, a percentagem de dividendos da empresa subiu ainda mais para 45,67%, com dividendos em numerário de 3,10 yuan por cada 10 ações (com impostos). Trata-se de uma demonstração, com ações concretas, do compromisso de longo prazo para com os acionistas.
2
O avanço em profundidade da “estratégia do vinho antigo”,
os resultados faseados continuam a ser libertados
A “estratégia do vinho antigo” da Shede é, desde sempre, o seu fosso principal para atravessar os ciclos. Até ao final de 2025, os inventários da Shede totalizavam 5,904 mil milhões de yuan, sobretudo constituídos por excelentes bases de álcool (jiu) e reservas de vinho antigo. Na verdade, estes vinhos antigos não foram acumulados num único dia; desde 1976, a Shede tem insistido em manter bases de álcool de alta qualidade, e, ao longo de décadas, construiu-se uma barreira de qualidade difícil de replicar. O baijiu não tem restrição de prazo de validade; quanto maior o tempo de armazenagem, mais aumentam os sabores do corpo do vinho e o respetivo valor. Estes vinhos antigos tornaram-se ativos centrais da Shede para a competitividade de longo prazo.
Atualmente, a Shede mantém a produção moderada e expande a capacidade. Em primeiro lugar, corresponde às exigências de desenvolvimento futuro do negócio, garantindo a segurança da capacidade. Em segundo lugar, consolida a barreira central da estratégia do vinho antigo, assegurando a necessidade de preparação (blend) de vinho antigo para toda a linha de produtos. Em terceiro lugar, aproveita a tendência de concentração da indústria de baijiu em empresas líderes, para conquistar mais quotas de mercado.
Esta estratégia assemelha-se à sabedoria estratégica de “erguer bem as muralhas, acumular abundantemente os grãos, e só então declarar o rei”. “Erguer bem as muralhas” é aprofundar continuamente a “estratégia do vinho antigo” para consolidar a mentalidade do consumidor de que “Shede = vinho antigo”. “Acumular abundantemente os grãos” é acumular os barris (talhões de armazenamento) de vinho antigo guardados com o tempo, que se tornam cada vez mais valiosos; estas bases de álcool de alta qualidade serão a arma principal na competição futura. “Só então declarar o rei” é aguardar a recuperação do ciclo de prosperidade do mercado e, então, aproveitar as vantagens acumuladas ao longo de muitos anos para realizar progressos substanciais, criando mais valor de mercado.
Dito de forma simples, a Shede está, no fundo do setor, a fazer “coisas difíceis, mas corretas”. Agora, resistir à pressão para seguir a tendência e fazer um recuo, é para, no futuro, fazer um impacto notável.
Na verdade, também podemos ver a qualidade da “estratégia do vinho antigo” por outra perspetiva.
Atualmente, a juventude (young) no consumo de baijiu tornou-se uma questão de resposta obrigatória para as empresas de bebidas alcoólicas. É de destacar que, apoiada na confiança da estratégia do vinho antigo, a Shede tem uma sensação de “ataque em outra dimensão” no mercado jovem. Por exemplo, o novo produto de 29 graus, “Shede Zizi” (舍得自在), um tipo de vinho de baixo teor alcoólico para consumo descontraído (畅饮型老酒). A base alcoólica é vinho antigo em barril guardado por mais de 6 anos; são adicionados aromas e ajustes de sabor com vinho antigo de 20 anos e de 30 anos. O corpo do vinho é espesso, suave e agradável, conquistando bem o agrado dos consumidores jovens. Este produto, durante a pré-venda na plataforma Jingdong (京东), já tinha criado resultados impressionantes: mais de 20.000 adições ao carrinho em 24 horas e mais de 12.000 encomendas em 36 horas.
Desde a implementação da “estratégia do vinho antigo”, a Shede alcançou resultados notáveis em várias dimensões, como valor da marca, inovação de produtos e desempenho ESG. No que diz respeito à marca, de acordo com o relatório “China 500 Marcas Mais Valiosas” de 2025, o valor da marca “Shede” é de 1108,72 mil milhões de yuan, e o valor da marca “Taopai” (沱牌) é de 798,26 mil milhões de yuan. No que toca aos produtos, “Shede Zizi” (舍得自在) foi lançado em 2025 e, no espaço de 4 meses, conquistou 7 prémios. Produtos centrais como “Cangpin Shede 10 anos” também conquistaram prémios de ouro internacionais. Em termos de ESG, em 2025 a pontuação ESG da Shede pela S&P aumentou 73% em termos homólogos, e a empresa recebeu sucessivamente vários reconhecimentos, incluindo “Guoxin Cup · ESG Bull Award (国新杯·ESG金牛奖)” e “Top 100 de Empresas ESG na China 2025 (2025中国企业ESG百强)”.
3
Conclusão
De forma geral, em 2025 a Shede, no período de baixa do setor, manteve a base operacional. A redução das quedas foi menor, a estrutura dos distribuidores foi otimizada, novos motores de crescimento começaram a ganhar impulso, e a devolução aos acionistas aumentou, lançando uma base sólida para o desenvolvimento de elevada qualidade em 2026.
Olhando para este ano, as perspetivas do mercado de consumo de baijiu são em geral melhores do que no ano passado. O Goldman Sachs, no documento “Perspetivas para 2026 sobre a indústria de bens de consumo essenciais na China”, aponta que, à medida que os efeitos da política vão diminuindo gradualmente, a segunda metade de 2026 poderá registar uma recuperação em termos de variação sequencial (mês/semana a semana/mês). O relatório divulgado no início do ano pela CICC (Citi Securities?) aponta claramente que a tendência de recuperação gradual da indústria de baijiu este ano é clara; o relatório de pesquisa mais recente de março pela Everbright Securities (光大证券) também menciona que a limpeza dos riscos nos canais chegou ao fim e está a entrar na fase final.
Combinando informações de várias partes, estima-se que em 2026 a indústria de baijiu possa estabilizar efetivamente de forma substancial!
A Shede também revelou que, durante o Festival da Primavera (春节), o crescimento dos vários produtos da empresa foi forte. A liquidação acelerada do inventário nos terminais foi evidente, a taxa de abertura das garrafas manteve um crescimento de dois dígitos e foi alcançado com sucesso um “excelente arranque de Ano Novo” (开门红). É de prever que, sob o impulso contínuo da linha principal da “estratégia do vinho antigo”, juntamente com a otimização da estrutura de produtos e o aperfeiçoamento do layout dos canais, o desempenho da Shede este ano seja digno de expectativa.