Huachuang Securities Zhang Yu: Os altos preços do petróleo trazem "limpeza", a participação das empresas de transporte de petróleo na China pode "crescer"

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券首席经济学家张瑜发表研报，探讨了高油价持续的状态下，中国中游制造份额提升的可能。
智通财经APP news,华创证券 Chief Economist Zhang Yu published a research report exploring the possibility of an increase in China’s midstream manufacturing share under sustained high oil prices.

报告主要基于四个逻辑：一是从全球制造业的油气对外依赖度来看，中国处于适中位置，有更多的制造业，对油气的进口依赖高于中国。
The report is mainly based on four logics: First, in terms of the dependence of global manufacturing on oil and gas imports, China is in a moderate position, with more manufacturing and a higher dependence on oil and gas imports than China.

二是从2020年疫情的经验来看，外部冲击往往带来供应链的重塑以及新增需求的增加。
Second, from the experience of the 2020 pandemic, external shocks often lead to a reshaping of supply chains and an increase in new demand.

从新增需求来看，本轮高油价或带来的新增需求集中在能源替代领域，中国有望受益。
In terms of new demand, the current round of high oil prices may bring new demand focused on energy substitution, from which China is expected to benefit.

三是从上世纪70-80年代的两次石油危机来看，制造大国，同时油气进口依赖相对偏低的制造大国(美国)，在石油危机期间，中游的份额确实出现了明显的抬升。
Third, looking at the two oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s, major manufacturing countries, especially those with relatively low dependence on oil and gas imports (the United States), did see a significant increase in midstream shares during the oil crises.

考虑到彼时，美国实行了偏紧的货币政策以抑制高通胀，中国当下的通胀水平并不需要实施偏紧的货币政策，中国中游份额提升的阻力或更小。
Considering that at that time, the U.S. implemented a tight monetary policy to curb high inflation, the current level of inflation in China does not require a tight monetary policy, so the resistance to the increase in China’s midstream share may be smaller.

四是从2000年以来的经验来看，每一次油价大幅上涨，中国中游制造出口份额均有所抬升，背后或与中国的能源成本(如工业用电)受油价影响小有关。
Fourth, based on experience since 2000, every time oil prices have surged, China’s midstream manufacturing export share has increased, which may be related to the fact that China’s energy costs (such as industrial electricity) are less affected by oil prices.

华创证券主要观点如下：
The main viewpoints of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

一、当下现状：全球制造业依赖油气进口

1. Current Situation: Global Manufacturing Relies on Oil and Gas Imports

全球制造业普遍依赖油气进口。我们使用2024年的数据，计算各国制造增加值所需要的油气净进口额，样本涵盖50个经济体，占全球制造业增加值的92.5%。
Global manufacturing generally relies on oil and gas imports. We use data from 2024 to calculate the net oil and gas import required for the value added of manufacturing in various countries, with a sample covering 50 economies, accounting for 92.5% of global manufacturing value added.

我们发现，占全球制造业增加值的23.9%的经济体，其油气为净出口，不需要油气进口。
We found that 23.9% of the economies accounting for global manufacturing value added are net exporters of oil and gas and do not require oil and gas imports.

但是占全球制造业增加值68.6%的经济体，其油气为净进口。
However, economies accounting for 68.6% of global manufacturing value added are net importers of oil and gas.

经济体来看，中国，2024年单位制造业增加值对应的油气进口是8.6%。
In terms of economies, for China, the oil and gas import corresponding to unit manufacturing value added in 2024 is 8.6%.

有25个经济体对油气的进口依赖超过中国，包括东亚的日本(14.7%)、韩国(18.6%);东南亚的越南(12.2%)、泰国(29.3%)、新加坡(14.9%)、菲律宾(22.8%);南亚的印度(20.8%)、巴基斯坦(33.6%);欧洲的德国、法国、英国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、比利时、芬兰、罗马尼亚、奥地利、捷克、波兰、匈牙利;非洲的南非、埃及以及南美洲的智利、秘鲁。
There are 25 economies that have a higher dependence on oil and gas imports than China, including Japan (14.7%) and South Korea (18.6%) in East Asia; Vietnam (12.2%), Thailand (29.3%), Singapore (14.9%), and the Philippines (22.8%) in Southeast Asia; India (20.8%) and Pakistan (33.6%) in South Asia; Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Finland, Romania, Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary in Europe; and South Africa and Egypt in Africa, as well as Chile and Peru in South America.

这些经济体合计的制造业增加值占全球之比为30.1%。
The combined manufacturing value added of these economies accounts for 30.1% of the global total.

二、历史经验：石油危机对于中游制造的影响分析
2. Historical Experience: Analysis of the Impact of Oil Crises on Midstream Manufacturing

(一)第一次石油危机复盘：1973-1975年
(1) Review of the First Oil Crisis: 1973-1975

第一次石油危机，从油价与原油消费来看，主要影响在1973-1975年。
The first oil crisis, in terms of oil prices and crude oil consumption, mainly affected the years 1973-1975.

其中，1973年-1974年1季度油价大幅上涨，按照世界银行统计的全球原油月度均价来看，1973年1月原油价格为2.08美元/桶，到1973年12月上升至4.1美元/桶，1974年1月进一步上升至13美元/桶，1974年4月小幅回落至10.6美元/桶，之后到1976年12月，维持在10-12美元每桶区间震荡。
During this period, from 1973 to the first quarter of 1974, oil prices rose sharply. According to the World Bank’s statistics on the global monthly average price of crude oil, the price in January 1973 was $2.08 per barrel, rising to $4.1 per barrel in December 1973, further increasing to $13 per barrel in January 1974, slightly falling to $10.6 per barrel in April 1974, and then fluctuating between $10 and $12 per barrel until December 1976.

1974-1975年全球原油消费量大幅回落。
From 1974 to 1975, global crude oil consumption dropped significantly.

按照BP(英国石油公司)的统计，1973年全球原油消费量增速为7.92%，1974年、1975年分别降至-1.54%、-0.85%。
According to BP (British Petroleum) statistics, the growth rate of global crude oil consumption in 1973 was 7.92%, dropping to -1.54% and -0.85% in 1974 and 1975, respectively.

1976年原油消费恢复正常，增速达到6.46%。
In 1976, crude oil consumption returned to normal, with a growth rate of 6.46%.

从1973-1975年的全球中游制造(SITC，第七类)出口来看，根据68个经济体的样本数据(样本经济体占全球出口总额的82.4%左右)。
Looking at global midstream manufacturing (SITC, category 7) exports from 1973 to 1975, based on sample data from 68 economies (which account for about 82.4% of total global exports).

1973-1975年中游出口保持高增长，年均增速达到25.5%，好于1972年的19.7%，以及1976-1977年的数据。
Midstream exports maintained high growth from 1973 to 1975, with an average annual growth rate of 25.5%, better than the 19.7% in 1972 and the data from 1976-1977.

对于彼时的制造强国(美国与德国，全球出口份额前二，差距较小)，两国中游制造均受益，但美国中游制造受益程度好于德国。
For the manufacturing powerhouses of that time (the United States and Germany, which had the two largest shares of global exports with a small difference), both countries benefited in midstream manufacturing, but the U.S. midstream manufacturing benefited more than Germany.

1972年(危机前)，美国中游份额为19.0%，1973-1975年，美国中游份额平均达到19.8%，份额提升幅度达到0.8%。
In 1972 (before the crisis), the U.S. midstream share was 19.0%, and from 1973 to 1975, the average U.S. midstream share reached 19.8%, an increase of 0.8%.

对于德国，1972年的中游份额为19.5%，1973-1975年平均达到19.8%，份额提升幅度为0.3%。
For Germany, the midstream share in 1972 was 19.5%, and from 1973 to 1975, the average reached 19.8%, an increase of 0.3%.

从原油消费来看，德国受冲击幅度更大，1974-1975年全球原油消费负增长的年份，德国原油消费增速均值低于美国2.62个百分点。
In terms of crude oil consumption, Germany was more severely impacted. During the years of negative growth in global crude oil consumption in 1974-1975, the average growth rate of Germany’s crude oil consumption was 2.62 percentage points lower than that of the U.S.

(二)第二次石油危机复盘：1979-1981年
(2) Review of the Second Oil Crisis: 1979-1981

对于第二次石油危机，从油价与原油消费来看，主要影响在1979-1983年。
Regarding the second oil crisis, in terms of oil prices and crude oil consumption, the main impact occurred from 1979 to 1983.

但考虑到美国货币政策在1980-1982年紧缩幅度较大，后期的原油消费影响有可能来自美国的货币紧缩。
However, considering that U.S. monetary policy tightened significantly from 1980 to 1982, the later impact on crude oil consumption may come from the tightening of U.S. monetary policy.

我们主要关注前三年，即1979-1981年的情况。
We mainly focus on the first three years, namely the period from 1979 to 1981.

其中，1979年油价大幅涨，按照世界银行统计的全球原油月度均价来看，1978年12月原油价格为14.5美元/桶，到1979年12月上升至39.75美元/桶，1980年12月保持在39.75美元/桶的高位，1981年之后趋于回落。
In 1979, oil prices rose sharply; according to the World Bank’s statistics on the global monthly average price of crude oil, the price in December 1978 was $14.5 per barrel, rising to $39.75 per barrel in December 1979, maintaining that high level in December 1980, and then trending downward after 1981.

1980-1983年全球原油消费量增速回落。
From 1980 to 1983, the growth rate of global crude oil consumption declined.

按照BP(英国石油公司)的统计，1979年全球原油消费量增速为1.26%，1980-1983年增速分别为-4.33%、-3.67%、-3.08%、-0.55%。
According to BP (British Petroleum) statistics, the growth rate of global crude oil consumption in 1979 was 1.26%, with growth rates of -4.33%, -3.67%, -3.08%, and -0.55% from 1980 to 1983, respectively.

连续四年全球原油消费增速为负。
For four consecutive years, the growth rate of global crude oil consumption was negative.

从1979-1981年的全球中游制造(SITC，第七类)出口来看，根据68个经济体的样本数据(样本经济体占全球出口总额的82.4%左右)。
Looking at global midstream manufacturing (SITC, category 7) exports from 1979 to 1981, based on sample data from 68 economies (which account for about 82.4% of total global exports).

1979-1981年全球中游出口增速有所回落，平均增速达到11.7%，略低于此前1977-1978年的水平。
From 1979 to 1981, the growth rate of global midstream exports declined, with an average growth rate of 11.7%, slightly lower than the levels of 1977-1978.

主要是1981年开始全球中游出口增速出现大幅放缓，为3.1%，1980年为16.4%。
This was primarily due to a significant slowdown in global midstream export growth starting in 1981, which was 3.1%, compared to 16.4% in 1980.

对于彼时的制造强国，美国中游制造份额提升，德国受损。
For the manufacturing powerhouses of that time, the U.S. midstream manufacturing share increased while Germany was adversely affected.

1978年(危机前)，美国中游份额为17.4%，1979-1981年，美国中游份额平均达到18.8%，份额提升幅度达到1.4%。
In 1978 (before the crisis), the U.S. midstream share was 17.4%, and from 1979 to 1981, the average U.S. midstream share reached 18.8%, an increase of 1.4%.

对于德国，1978年的中游份额为19.2%，1979-1981年平均达到17.9%，份额回落。
For Germany, the midstream share in 1978 was 19.2%, and from 1979 to 1981, the average dropped to 17.9%.

从原油消费来看，1979-1980年全球原油消费负增长的年份，德国原油消费增速均值低于美国1.75个百分点。
In terms of crude oil consumption, during the years of negative growth in global crude oil consumption in 1979-1980, the average growth rate of Germany’s crude oil consumption was 1.75 percentage points lower than that of the U.S.

三、未来展望：高油价抬升中国中游份额的途径推演
3. Future Outlook: Pathways for High Oil Prices to Elevate China’s Midstream Share

(一)途径一：供应链重塑，订单转移中国
(1) Pathway One: Reshaping Supply Chains, Shifting Orders to China

参考疫情，疫情对于全球供给格局影响较大。
Referring to the pandemic, it had a significant impact on the global supply landscape.

以机械及运输设备为例，2020年全球总需求减少，增速为-4.8%，是2016年以来增速最低的一年。
Taking machinery and transportation equipment as an example, global total demand decreased in 2020, with a growth rate of -4.8%, the lowest growth rate since 2016.

但中国的机械及运输设备出口增速达到5.2%。
However, China’s exports of machinery and transportation equipment grew at a rate of 5.2%.

体现到份额上，中国的机械及运输设备份额从2019年的17.7%提升到2020年的19.6%。
In terms of share, China’s share of machinery and transportation equipment increased from 17.7% in 2019 to 19.6% in 2020.

疫情结束后，尽管份额有所波动，但始终在19%-21%区间波动，远高于2019年的17.7%。
After the pandemic ended, although the share fluctuated, it remained within the range of 19%-21%, much higher than 17.7% in 2019.

本轮高油价以及军事冲突，或对能源保障能力不足的经济体而言，带来较大的供给冲击，中国或将受益于自身较强的能源保障能力，出口份额有望进一步提升。
The current round of high oil prices and military conflicts may bring significant supply shocks to economies with insufficient energy security. China may benefit from its strong energy security capabilities, and its export share is expected to further increase.

(二)途径二：新增需求增加，中国有望受益
(2) Pathway Two: Increase in New Demand, China Expected to Benefit

参考疫情：带来的新增需求主要在防疫领域，典型的是纺织用品(如口罩等)、医药用品(如退烧药等)。
Referring to the pandemic: The new demand generated mainly occurred in the field of epidemic prevention, typically in textiles (such as masks) and medical supplies (such as antipyretics).

尽管2020年全球总出口增速为-7.2%，但纺织相关用品全球出口增速为7.2%，医药相关产品全球出口增速为9.7%。
Although the global total export growth rate in 2020 was -7.2%, the export growth rate of textile-related products was 7.2%, and that of medical-related products was 9.7%.

中国受益于全球需求增加。
China benefited from the increase in global demand.

纺织用品，2020年中国出口增速为28.9%，全球份额从2019年的38.4%提升到2020年的46.1%。
For textiles, China’s export growth rate in 2020 was 28.9%, and its global share increased from 38.4% in 2019 to 46.1% in 2020.

医药用品，2020-2021年中国出口增速分别为28%、120.6%。
For medical supplies, China’s export growth rates were 28% and 120.6% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

全球份额从2019年的2.7%提升到2021年的5.8%。
The global share increased from 2.7% in 2019 to 5.8% in 2021.

本轮高油价以及军事冲突，或带来的新增需求在能源安全、国防安全、供应链安全等领域。
The current round of high oil prices and military conflicts may bring new demand in areas such as energy security, national defense security, and supply chain security.

典型品种或在新能源、新能源汽车、电网设备、船舶、军工用品等领域。
Typical products may include those in the fields of new energy, new energy vehicles, power grid equipment, ships, and military supplies.

(三)途径三：成本优势增加，助力份额提升
(3) Pathway Three: Increased Cost Advantages to Support Share Growth

第三个途径或与成本有关。
The third pathway may be related to costs.

中国受益于能源结构中煤炭、非化石能源占比较高，油价波动较大时，电价影响较小。
China benefits from a high proportion of coal and non-fossil energy in its energy structure, resulting in smaller impacts on electricity prices when oil prices fluctuate significantly.

但，欧洲与美国的电价受原油价格波动影响较大。
However, electricity prices in Europe and the U.S. are significantly affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices.

例如，2022年，受俄乌冲突影响，全年油价中枢大幅上行。
For example, in 2022, due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the annual average oil price rose sharply.

欧洲电价(PPI口径，代表工业用电，下同)全年上涨61%，美国电价全年上涨90.5%。
European electricity prices (PPI basis, representing industrial electricity, the same below) rose by 61% for the entire year, while U.S. electricity prices rose by 90.5% for the year.

中国电价全年仅上涨5.1%。
In contrast, China’s electricity prices only increased by 5.1% for the entire year.

2000年以来，使用油价数据与中游制造的中国份额数据，对比发现，油价大幅上涨年份(例如超过30%)，中国的中游制造份额继续保持上行(当年相比上年)。
Since 2000, using oil price data and China’s midstream manufacturing share data, it has been found that in years of significant increases in oil prices (for example, exceeding 30%), China’s midstream manufacturing share continued to rise (compared to the previous year).

典型的年份是2022年，全年按照世界银行的口径，油价中枢上涨40.6%，中国中游出口份额继续抬升0.1%，考虑到2020-2021年受疫情影响中游出口份额已经抬升幅度较大，2022年保持抬升较为不易。
A typical year is 2022, when the annual average oil price, according to the World Bank, rose by 40.6%, and China’s midstream export share continued to increase by 0.1%. Considering that the midstream export share had already risen significantly due to the pandemic’s impact in 2020-2021, it was relatively challenging to maintain the upward trend in 2022.

其他油价中枢全年上涨超过30%的年份还包括2021年、2011年、2008年、2005年、2004年、2000年。
Other years when the annual average oil price rose by more than 30% include 2021, 2011, 2008, 2005, 2004, and 2000.

这些年份，中国中游制造的全球出口份额全部上行。
In these years, China’s global export share in midstream manufacturing rose in all cases.

此外，考虑到中游制造企业海外毛利率大幅高于国内，叠加中游制造业企业在海外相比海外产能成本优势更大(油价上行)，份额提升或更加顺畅(既有主动出口的动力，又有开拓市场的成本优势)。
In addition, considering that midstream manufacturing enterprises have significantly higher gross profit margins overseas compared to domestically, coupled with the greater cost advantages of midstream manufacturing enterprises overseas (due to rising oil prices), the increase in share may be smoother (with both the motivation for proactive exports and the cost advantages of market expansion).