A guerra reescreve o roteiro do mercado cambial, o dólar recupera fortemente e apresenta o desempenho mais forte em quase oito meses

随着中东冲突扰乱华尔街对全球主导储备货币的既有判断，美元即将创下自去年7月以来的最佳单月表现。
As the Middle Eastern conflict disrupts Wall Street’s existing judgment on the dominant global reserve currency, the dollar is set to post its best monthly performance since July of last year.

截至目前，美元指数3月累计上涨约2.4%，为2025年7月以来最佳单月表现，主要受到避险资金流入、战争推高能源价格以及市场下调对美联储降息预期的支撑。
So far, the dollar index has risen about 2.4% in March, marking its best monthly performance since July 2025, primarily supported by inflows of safe-haven funds, war-driven increases in energy prices, and market adjustments to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

得益于3月的强势，美元指数今年迄今为止上涨1.7%，该指数去年大跌9.4%。
Benefiting from the strong performance in March, the dollar index has risen 1.7% so far this year, after a significant drop of 9.4% last year.

这标志着美元走势的明显逆转。在冲突爆发前夕，美元刚刚录得连续第四个月下跌。
This marks a clear reversal in the dollar’s trend. Just before the outbreak of the conflict, the dollar had recorded its fourth consecutive month of decline.

随着战事持续，这一变化正在给此前看空美元的银行和投资者带来压力。
As the fighting continues, this change is putting pressure on banks and investors who were previously bearish on the dollar.

例如，摩根大通的策略师们一年来首次转为看涨。
For example, JPMorgan’s strategists have turned bullish for the first time in a year.

在期货市场，投机者也已转向押注美元上涨，而在2月中旬时，他们对美元的看空程度仍处于约五年来最高水平。
In the futures market, speculators have also shifted to betting on the dollar’s rise, whereas in mid-February, their bearish positions on the dollar were at their highest level in about five years.

渣打银行G10外汇研究主管Steven Englander表示：“2026年初的美元空头头寸被打了个措手不及。”
Standard Chartered’s head of G10 forex research, Steven Englander, stated: “The dollar short positions at the beginning of 2026 were caught off guard.”

随着交易员平仓空头头寸、能源价格维持高位，Englander坚持其对美元进一步上涨的预测，这一观点他自2026年初便一直持有。
As traders close short positions and energy prices remain high, Englander maintains his prediction of further dollar appreciation, a view he has held since the beginning of 2026.

他预计，到今年年底，美元兑欧元汇率将升至约1.12美元（即1欧元兑1.12美元），这将是自去年5月以来的最强水平，而目前的汇率约为1.15美元。
He predicts that by the end of this year, the dollar-to-euro exchange rate will rise to about 1.12 dollars (i.e., 1 euro equals 1.12 dollars), which would be the strongest level since May of last year, while the current rate is about 1.15 dollars.

年初悲观预期
Pessimistic Expectations at the Start of the Year

高盛集团和德意志银行等机构年初曾预测美元将走弱，部分原因是预计美联储将在2026年继续放松货币政策。
Institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank predicted at the beginning of the year that the dollar would weaken, partly due to expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue to ease monetary policy in 2026.

美联储去年下半年进行了三次降息，累计降息75个基点。
The Federal Reserve cut rates three times in the second half of last year, totaling a 75 basis point reduction.

市场原本预计决策者今年将继续实施宽松政策。
The market originally expected policymakers to continue implementing easing measures this year.

然而，随着伊朗战争持续进行，霍尔木兹海峡被封导致原油等大宗商品价格走高，投资者目前已倾向于美联储将在通胀上升的情况下重新开始加息。
However, as the war in Iran continues and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to rising prices for crude oil and other commodities, investors are now inclined to believe that the Federal Reserve will resume rate hikes in the face of rising inflation.

此前，美国总统特朗普去年发起的贸易战也引发了市场对资金可能撤离美国资产的猜测。不过，事实证明投资者仍在持续流入，同时通过对冲来防范美元下跌风险。
Previously, the trade war initiated by U.S. President Trump last year raised speculation about the potential withdrawal of capital from U.S. assets. However, it has proven that investors are still flowing in while hedging against the risk of a dollar decline.

一个更深层的风险在于，这场战争可能重新点燃关于长期“去美元化”的讨。
A deeper risk is that this war may reignite discussions about long-term “de-dollarization.”

无论是出于对特朗普政府政策的担忧，还是因战争支出加剧财政前景的不安。
Whether due to concerns over the Trump administration’s policies or unease over the fiscal outlook exacerbated by war spending.

数十年来，美元在全球金融体系中的核心地位无可匹敌。
For decades, the dollar’s central role in the global financial system has been unmatched.

但德意志银行本周发布报告指出，这场战争正在考验美元作为全球石油交易货币的地位，并提到未来可能更多使用人民币结算。
However, Deutsche Bank’s report this week pointed out that this war is testing the dollar’s status as the global currency for oil transactions, and mentioned that there may be more use of the renminbi for settlements in the future.

增长担忧或成关键变量
Growth Concerns May Become a Key Variable

当前更直接的关注点在于：如果能源价格长期高企，市场是否会将焦点转向经济增长风险。
The more immediate concern is whether the market will shift its focus to economic growth risks if energy prices remain high for an extended period.

尽管美国作为产油国相对更具韧性，但一旦增长担忧升温，市场对美联储降息的预期可能重新出现。
Although the U.S. is relatively more resilient as an oil-producing country, if growth concerns escalate, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may resurface.

高盛策略师本周撰文称，如果市场转向担忧增长问题，“美元对G10货币的整体升值可能会受到抑制”。
Goldman Sachs strategists wrote this week that if the market shifts to concerns about growth, “the overall appreciation of the dollar against G10 currencies may be suppressed.”

摩根士丹利则更进一步认为，随着经济担忧加剧，美元最终将走弱。
Morgan Stanley goes further to suggest that as economic concerns intensify, the dollar will ultimately weaken.

预测暂时“冻结”
Forecasts Temporarily “Frozen”

由于战争持续时间及其走向（升级还是达成和平协议）仍不明朗，许多机构暂缓更新预测。
Due to the unclear duration and direction of the war (whether it escalates or a peace agreement is reached), many institutions have postponed updating their forecasts.

道明证券外汇策略主管Jayati Bharadwaj本周在报告中表示，在当前高风险环境下，美元应受益；如果冲突升级，该行可能转为看多美元。
Jayati Bharadwaj, head of foreign exchange strategy at TD Securities, stated in a report this week that the dollar should benefit in the current high-risk environment; if the conflict escalates, the firm may turn bullish on the dollar.

不过，她仍不愿修改其看空美元的长期预测，因为如果未来几周美伊达成和平协议，美元仍有走弱空间。
However, she is still unwilling to revise her long-term bearish forecast on the dollar, as there is still room for the dollar to weaken if a peace agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran in the coming weeks.

Bharadwaj写道：“在这种情况下，美国经济‘例外性’减弱、避险溢价下降，以及近期美国政策引发的‘对冲美国（Hedge America）’交易加强，都将对美元构成压力。”
Bharadwaj wrote: “In this case, the weakening of the U.S. economy’s ‘exceptionalism,’ the decline in the risk premium, and the strengthening of recent U.S. policies leading to ‘Hedge America’ trades will all put pressure on the dollar.”

Manulife Investment Management资深全球宏观分析师Erica Camilleri同样对美元持偏空观点，尽管该机构本月已经平掉美元空头头寸。
Erica Camilleri, a senior global macro analyst at Manulife Investment Management, also holds a bearish view on the dollar, although the firm has already closed its dollar short positions this month.

Camilleri指出，市场对美国以外经济增长的悲观情绪“被夸大”，同时美联储仍可能降息，而她认为今年其他央行不会采取同样行动。
Camilleri noted that the market’s pessimism regarding economic growth outside the U.S. is “overstated,” and the Federal Reserve may still cut rates, while she believes that other central banks will not take similar actions this year.

她表示：“我们仍然倾向于认为中期美元将贬值，并预计欧元将在年底前升值。”
She stated: “We still tend to believe that the dollar will depreciate in the medium term and expect the euro to appreciate before the end of the year.”

多头暂占上风
Bulls Currently Hold the Upper Hand

不过，就目前而言，多头仍占据主导。
However, for now, the bulls still hold the dominant position.

周五，在对长期战争的担忧加剧之际，美元和油价双双上涨。
On Friday, amid escalating concerns over a prolonged war, both the dollar and oil prices rose.

尽管特朗普周四再次宣布暂缓打击伊朗能源设施，但市场情绪并未改善。
Although Trump announced on Thursday to again delay strikes on Iranian energy facilities, market sentiment did not improve.

在期权市场，未来一个月看涨美元的押注占据主导，但更长期的仓位显示，市场预计美元强势将逐渐减弱。
In the options market, bullish bets on the dollar dominate for the next month, but longer-term positions indicate that the market expects the dollar’s strength to gradually weaken.

布朗兄弟哈里曼全球市场策略主管Elias Haddad表示：“全球宏观环境的相对重要性已让位于与战争相关的消息。”
Elias Haddad, the global market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, stated: “The relative importance of the global macro environment has given way to war-related news.”

“当前是一个战术性市场，”Haddad说。“你必须反应迅速。”
“It is currently a tactical market,” Haddad said. “You have to react quickly.”

（文章来源：财联社）
(Source: Caixin)