【Estratégia Institucional】A resiliência do mercado A-shares ainda persiste. Nesta fase, é necessário manter uma atitude otimista.

中原证券认为，周四，上证指数、深证成指早盘低开后一度回升，随后回落走低，午后震荡下探，上证指数再度失守3900点；
A Zhongyuan Securities believes that on Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index opened lower in the morning but rebounded briefly, then fell back, and in the afternoon, they fluctuated downwards, with the Shanghai Composite Index once again falling below 3900 points;
创业板指早盘低开高走，随后快速回落，午后震荡下探。
the ChiNext Index opened low and rose in the morning, then quickly fell back, fluctuating downwards in the afternoon.
盘中电池、能源金属、化学制品以及机器人等行业表现较好；
During the session, industries such as batteries, energy metals, chemical products, and robotics performed well;
地面兵装稀土、保险以及风电设备等行业表现较弱。
while industries such as ground military equipment, rare earths, insurance, and wind power equipment performed poorly.
当前市场的核心压制因素来自海外，中东冲突若进一步升级，可能引发油价持续冲高，加剧全球滞胀压力。
The core suppressing factor in the current market comes from abroad. If the Middle East conflict escalates further, it may lead to a sustained rise in oil prices, exacerbating global stagflation pressures.
若美国通胀持续超预期，美联储可能推迟降息甚至重新加息，对全球流动性及风险偏好形成压制。
If U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts or even raise rates again, putting pressure on global liquidity and risk appetite.
考虑到国内宏观政策基调进一步明朗，为市场提供了坚实的底线支撑。
Considering that the domestic macro policy tone has become clearer, it provides solid bottom support for the market.
建议密切关注宏观经济数据、海外流动性变化以及政策动向。
It is recommended to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy trends.

东吴证券认为，周四，A股市场主要指数缩量下跌。
Dongwu Securities believes that on Thursday, the main indices of the A-share market experienced a decrease in volume and fell.
随着局势的反复，原油期货再度大涨，近阶段仍需着重关注消息面变化，行情受到地缘风险影响较大。
As the situation fluctuates, crude oil futures have risen sharply again, and it is essential to focus on changes in news, as market trends are significantly influenced by geopolitical risks.
技术上看，量能迅速缩小一定程度上表明了市场资金的谨慎态度，
From a technical perspective, the rapid contraction of volume indicates a cautious attitude of market funds to some extent,
前期离场资金暂未大幅回流进场，而场内资金在消息面变化较快的当下信心较为脆弱，
with previously exited funds not significantly flowing back in, while on-site funds are relatively weak in confidence amid rapid changes in news,
在消息面的催动下市场出现缩量下行的状态，值得注意的是，目前主要风险在外部地缘冲突，
resulting in a state of reduced volume and downward movement in the market. It is noteworthy that the main risk currently lies in external geopolitical conflicts,
后续若缓和信号再度出现，则市场向上的动能也依然较强，
and if signals of easing emerge later, the upward momentum of the market will remain strong,
整体经济基本面数据相对表现较强，A股市场韧性仍存，本阶段还需保持乐观态度。
with overall economic fundamentals showing relatively strong performance, the A-share market still has resilience, and an optimistic attitude should be maintained at this stage.

财信证券认为，周四，A股大盘缩量下跌。
Caixin Securities believes that on Thursday, the A-share market experienced a decrease in volume and fell.
大盘经历前两个交易日的连续反弹后，虽然阶段底部或已确立，
After experiencing consecutive rebounds in the previous two trading days, although the phase bottom may have been established,
但是由于前期快速下跌积累了一定套牢盘，目前主要指数已接近压力位，
due to the accumulation of certain trapped positions from the previous rapid decline, the main indices are now close to resistance levels,
需要在成交额稳步放量配合下才能实现快速突破。
and a steady increase in trading volume is needed to achieve a quick breakthrough.
而前期大幅波动后，市场信心有待重建，叠加能源危机带来的全球“类滞胀”影响短期难以完全消退，
After significant fluctuations previously, market confidence needs to be rebuilt, and the global “quasi-stagflation” effects brought by the energy crisis are unlikely to completely dissipate in the short term,
部分资金或继续以观望为主，当日在全市场成交额不足2万亿元的情况下，大盘迎来调整。
with some funds possibly continuing to adopt a wait-and-see approach. On a day where the total market turnover was below 2 trillion yuan, the index faced adjustments.
盘面上，红利方向表现相对较好，而科创方向普遍走弱。
On the board, the dividend direction performed relatively well, while the tech innovation direction generally weakened.
往后看，尽管中东局势仍有反复，但事件趋于平稳是大概率事件，
Looking ahead, although the situation in the Middle East remains volatile, it is highly probable that events will stabilize,
对A股的影响也将边际减弱，短期大盘或仍延续反弹趋势。
and the impact on the A-shares will diminish marginally, with the index likely continuing its rebound trend in the short term.
不过，海外能源危机带来的全球“类滞胀”效应以及A股财报季带来的业绩风险，
However, the global “quasi-stagflation” effects brought about by the overseas energy crisis and the performance risks from the A-share earnings season,
都将压制增量资金入场节奏，大盘反弹过程中将会有一定反复。
will suppress the pace of incremental capital entering the market, leading to certain fluctuations during the index’s rebound.
基于此，近期大盘可能呈现题材板块分化的结构性行情。
Based on this, the recent market may present a structural trend of differentiation among thematic sectors.
中期来看，在财政政策及货币政策“双宽松”基调延续、
In the medium term, with the continuation of the “dual easing” tone of fiscal and monetary policy,
居民储蓄资产持续入市、“反内卷”改善上市公司业绩、
the continuous inflow of household savings into the market, and the improvement of listed company performance due to “anti-involution,”
全球AI科技仍持续突破等共同驱动下，本轮A股行情基础依旧牢固，
and the ongoing breakthroughs in global AI technology driving these factors, the foundation of the current A-share market remains solid,
预计本次中东冲突仅影响A股市场短期情绪与市场运行节奏，并不会改变市场方向，
it is expected that this Middle East conflict will only affect the short-term sentiment and market operation rhythm of the A-share market and will not change the market direction,
对市场中长期向好的趋势仍然抱有信心，不宜过度担忧。
and we should remain confident in the medium to long-term positive trend of the market, without excessive worry.