【Análise de ações de entregas】Meituan, Alibaba recuam 3% — Análise: Ainda há dúvidas se a guerra de entregas acabou; se a era de queima de dinheiro e subsídios chegou ao fim, a Meituan será a maior beneficiária

Hong Kong stocks weaken, Hang Seng Index drops 347 points at midday, Tech Index falls over 2%, food delivery platform stocks show mixed developments. Meituan (3690) rebounded nearly 14% yesterday but retreated 3% on Thursday. Alibaba (09988) declined 3.7%, JD.com (09618) rose about 1.7% against the market trend.

The State Market Supervision Administration reposted an editorial from mainland official media Economic Daily titled “The Food Delivery War Should End,” which temporarily boosted the stocks of the three major food delivery giants. Blue Water Capital Chief Investment Officer Li Zeming stated in a video program that whether the food delivery war can truly end remains uncertain. Previously, regulatory authorities and official media repeatedly called for platforms to reduce subsidies and avoid vicious competition, but enforcement has been difficult. Food delivery and e-commerce are not standardized products like cement or photovoltaics, making it harder to regulate costs and pricing, thus difficult to completely eliminate malicious competition.

Li Zeming said that if the era of burning money on subsidies by food delivery platforms is expected to end, Meituan would be the biggest beneficiary because, compared to Alibaba and JD.com’s food delivery businesses, which only constitute part of their operations, Meituan faces the greatest competitive pressure. “The one that benefits the most is definitely Meituan, because it has suffered the deepest, with all its businesses being squeezed by the other two,” he explained. Therefore, Meituan’s stock price rebounded the most. However, he believes that a single article is far from solving the problem. “Meituan is in a situation of repeatedly breaking bottom and occasionally rebounding,” and in the short term, it is necessary to see if it can recover the 100-day moving average and stabilize at around HKD 94.

He noted that the rebound of large tech stocks provides a positive boost to the market, but it is still uncertain whether the food delivery war will truly end. Moreover, the market does not fully believe that the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement. Funds are mainly focused on short-term trading. The Hang Seng Index is expected to rebound to around 25,500 points, targeting the 20-day moving average, but it is anticipated that the short-term rebound of Hong Kong stocks will face significant challenges.