Investigador da Universidade de Peking comenta o impacto do conflito entre EUA, Israel e Irão: procura global por produtos manufaturados em ascensão

China Youth Daily Client (Reporter Zhu Caiyun) — The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is impacting global supply chains. During the economic situation and policy analysis meeting held after the 2026 Peking University Guanghua Two Sessions on March 17, Associate Professor at Peking University Guanghua School of Management and Deputy Director of the Peking University Institute of Economic Policy, Yan Se, stated that geopolitical conflicts have increased global uncertainty, triggering a “buying frenzy” for resources and industrial products, while the implementation of AI technology has generated huge energy demands.

“These two forces are jointly driving up global demand for manufacturing products, and China, with its advantages in the entire industrial chain and diversified energy strategy, has secured a favorable position,” Yan said. In the first two months of this year, China’s exports exceeded expectations, reflecting this logic.

On March 17, the post-2026 Peking University Guanghua Two Sessions economic situation and policy analysis meeting was held at Peking University Science Park. Associate Professor at Peking University Guanghua School of Management and Deputy Director of the Peking University Institute of Economic Policy, Yan Se, shared insights. Photo provided by the organizer.

Based on this, Yan believes that with external demand and cost push factors, China’s more than three-year-long downward price cycle may be approaching a turning point. He predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) may turn positive by the end of June, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could rise to around 1.5% by the end of the year, thereby restoring corporate profits and improving consumption.

“China’s economy is entering a new cycle driven by long-term factors,” Yan said. In his view, the overcapacity and downward price pressures that have troubled China in recent years are changing under the influence of international situations and technological revolutions. Overcoming the old cycle relies on China’s deep industrial and technological advantages.

Source: China Youth Daily Client