"Guerra energética" intensifica-se! Bombardeamento israelita do maior campo de gás do Irão, por trás da disparada dos preços do petróleo: Israel "controla" completamente Trump?

Israel’s unprecedented bombing of Iran’s core natural gas fields has not only triggered a supply disruption panic in the crude oil market but also caused the market to reassess the true power structure within the US-Israel alliance amid the current Middle East upheaval — who is really in control?

The incident began with the attack on the South Pars gas field. On Wednesday, March 18, local time, the energy red line in Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts was substantially broken. According to CCTV News, the Israel Defense Forces attacked facilities related to the South Pars gas field in Busher Province, southern Iran.

CCTV quoted Israeli officials as saying that the facility processed about 40% of Iran’s natural gas, and the attack was carried out “in coordination with the United States.” This marks the first direct military strike on Iran’s upstream oil and gas assets since the outbreak of this round of conflict.

In response to the attack, Xinhua News Agency reported that Iran’s National Gas Company issued a statement on the 18th confirming that facilities related to the South Pars gas field were attacked by hostile forces, causing a fire. However, the statement objectively emphasized that there were no casualties, the fire was fully extinguished, and natural gas production continued safely, maintaining normal national energy supply.

The market’s reaction was extremely intense. Brent crude oil surged over 6% intraday, approaching the $110 per barrel mark.

Energy War: Why is this bombing so dangerous?

Before exploring the behind-the-scenes game between the US and Israel, it is essential to clarify a core fact: South Pars is not only Iran’s trump card but also the “Achilles’ heel” of the global energy market.

South Pars is currently the world’s largest known natural gas reserve, shared by Iran and Qatar. It is not only the foundation for Iran’s domestic power generation, industrial raw materials, and winter heating but also a vital gas source for countries like Turkey.

Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Financial, pointed out sharply: “Destroying millions of barrels of production capacity would have enormous impacts because it means that even after the war ends, inventories cannot be replenished.”

To illustrate, past attacks on oil tankers or blockades of straits were like clogging a water pipe; once cleared, water could flow again. But this time, bombing upstream gas fields and LNG facilities is akin to destroying the “water well” directly.

Once the “water well” is destroyed, it takes years to repair. The historical experience after the Iraq War in 2003 shows that despite ample funding, rebuilding energy production facilities often takes much longer than expected, directly increasing long-term risks premiums on energy supply.

Iran’s retaliation for the attack on its upstream core assets has triggered a chain reaction.

According to CCTV News, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Commander Tansiri warned that Iran has now treated US-related oil facilities and US military bases equally and will strike with full force. Iran has even issued a “strike list” targeting key refineries and gas fields in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Iraq’s power supply has been immediately severely impacted — due to Iran’s natural gas cutoff, Iraq lost over 3.1 gigawatts (GW) of power generation capacity.

Umud Shokri, a senior visiting scholar at George Mason University, analyzed that shifting the target from military facilities to core energy production areas signifies that the geopolitical conflict has officially evolved into an economic and energy consumption war. Israel aims to pressure Iran by striking its economic core, but this strategy makes interconnected energy systems extremely vulnerable.

Who is giving orders? Is Israel fully “controlling” Trump?

This is the deepest logic that market participants and investors are most concerned about in this event. If the bombing of energy facilities is the “surface,” then the power structure between the US and Israel in this attack is the “core.”

Who is leading the situation in this attack?

According to CCTV News citing US officials, former President Trump was informed in advance of Israel’s plan to attack South Pars and expressed support, aiming to send a message to Iran in response to its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

US officials also revealed that Trump believed “Iran has understood this message,” and therefore he currently opposes further attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Trump stated he “does not want further attacks on Iran’s energy facilities.”

However, the story quickly took a dramatic turn. According to the latest report from Xinhua, President Trump publicly declared on social media on the 18th that the US was “not aware” of Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil and gas facilities, and emphasized that Qatar was not involved in any way.

Trump said Israel would not attack the “extremely important and valuable” South Pars gas field again unless Iran decided to attack the “completely innocent” Qatar. He also threatened that if Iran attacked Qatar’s liquefied natural gas facilities again, the US would “use unprecedented force to completely destroy the entire South Pars gas field.”

This public statement sharply conflicts with the earlier “anonymous US officials” message that Trump was informed and supported the attack. Is it the US officials lying, or is Trump trying to distance himself from responsibility?

This huge policy uncertainty, along with the serious disconnect in high-level US statements, is the source of market panic. On overseas social media, financial opinion leaders (KOLs), geopolitical observers, and netizens have erupted into heated debates over “who is really controlling whom” between the US and Israel.

Speculation 1: The tail wagging the dog — Has Israel “reversed control” over the US?

Many analysts believe that Trump’s “not aware” statement precisely indicates that Washington has lost control of the situation, becoming a passive payer.

• Javier Blas, a columnist for Bloomberg on energy and commodities, said: "There are two possibilities for the attack on South Pars today: 1) Israel informed the US, and Washington either tacitly approved or did not oppose; (which is) very bad; 2) Israel informed the US, and Washington failed to persuade its war partners to stop the attack: this is very, very bad. Who will decide to escalate the situation: the US or Israel?"

• Waqas Inayat, a well-known KOL, bluntly said: “We are witnessing a ‘very, very bad’ script. If Washington has lost its chips with its ‘primary partner’ (Israel), we are entering an unpredictable, rogue escalation phase. The global energy market is now being driven by a ‘tail wagging the dog’ (tail wagging the dog).”**

• User Ammanichanda added: “Israel has unimaginable influence over the US; they can do whatever they want. This is not an exaggeration.”

• Netizen Markk also believes: “At this stage, I am almost certain that US foreign policy has been hijacked by Israel.”

From a market perspective, if Israel is an uncontrollable “wild horse” that is not under US control, then Trump’s so-called “no more attacks” statement is completely untrustworthy, and the risk of a chain reaction of destruction on Middle Eastern energy facilities is fully priced in.

Speculation 2: Deeply intertwined interests — Is Israel just the US’s “bad cop”?

Another view argues that we should not be fooled by appearances; the US remains the ultimate puppeteer behind the scenes.

• QuantCappers, a KOL, presented core data to counter: “Israel is a vassal of the US. The US provides Israel with $4 billion annually in military aid, accounting for 10% of its total military budget. ‘Who controls the purse strings (and thus the discourse)’ is key.”

• User Ant-i’s analysis is very insightful: “It’s the tail wagging the dog, not the other way around. In this situation, ‘the tail (Israel)’ becomes a convenient scapegoat. This way, the US can act without restrictions and shift external anger elsewhere.”

• User EndGame2030 posed a profound question: “Does Washington want us to believe Israel is the puppet? Or is Israel just a ‘bad cop’ doing the dirty work for the moneybags?”

Speculation 3: A carefully orchestrated political and market double act?

Some analysts suggest this attack was a highly precise “political signaling.”

Shashank Joshi, an analyst, cited a report from Israel’s Channel 12: “An Israeli senior official said that Israel’s assistance in the operation was to send a message to the US. ‘Either… the Strait of Hormuz is opened, mines are cleared… or the entire (gas) infrastructure will be destroyed, along with other facilities.’”

This explains Trump’s attitude: the attack on the gas field is not meant for destruction but for maximum pressure. If Iran cooperates and opens the Strait of Hormuz, the energy war ends; if Iran remains tough, Trump may signal green light again at any time.

In summary, the bombing of South Pars has driven oil prices close to $110, not only because of the daily risk of millions of barrels of oil and gas supply disruption but also because the market perceives that the “energy war” game without bottom line is becoming normalized.

Whether the US is behind the scenes pulling strings or Israel “controls” US decisions, the result points to the same fact: the dense energy network in the Persian Gulf has become a Damocles sword hanging over the global economy. As long as this fragile nerve remains tense, super volatility in energy markets will persist long-term.

Risk warning and disclaimer

Market risks exist; investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions herein are suitable for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk.