Bernstein: A Copa do Mundo trará um volume de negociação de bilhões de dólares ao mercado de previsão, apontando essas três grandes plataformas como vencedoras

Wall Street investment bank Bernstein (Bernstein) analysts released a new report indicating that the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which kicks off today (11th), will become a historic watershed for the "prediction markets," expected to bring up to 10 billion USD in consumer transaction growth for the industry. The report estimates that the prediction market will reach an annual trading volume of 1 trillion USD by 2030, naming Coinbase, Robinhood, and DraftKings—large user base platforms—as the biggest winners.
(Background summary: Jupiter launches Solana-native prediction market Forecast, adopting "multi-market maker competition" to guarantee the best prices)
(Additional background: Prediction markets heavily betting on Bitcoin's further decline: 66% chance BTC drops below 55,000 USD, funds shifted to stablecoins for hedging)

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• World Cup expected to drive hundreds of billions in USD trading volume, aiming for 1 trillion USD by 2030
• Three major distribution channels become the biggest winners: DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase
• Polymarket market share declines, Kalshi rises to dominance

As the 2026 US-Canada-Mexico FIFA World Cup officially kicks off today (11th), this globally most-watched sporting event not only ignites fans' enthusiasm but also injects unprecedented explosive power into the emerging "prediction markets." Bernstein (Bernstein), a Wall Street investment bank, released a recent research report stating that this World Cup, with 48 teams and 104 matches, will become the largest single trading catalyst in prediction market history, pushing the sector beyond political elections and into mainstream public consciousness.

World Cup expected to drive hundreds of billions in USD trading volume, aiming for 1 trillion USD by 2030

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events. Since the Web3 platform Polymarket sparked a wave during the 2024 US elections, prediction markets have gradually become a key reference for media and analysts. Bernstein analysts estimate that this World Cup, occurring during the traditional sports betting off-season (June to July), will bring over 3 billion USD in incremental funds to prediction markets, and push total consumer prediction market trading volume to surge by 5 to 10 billion USD.

Driven by sporting events and diverse incidents, Bernstein forecasts that the total annual trading volume of this industry will reach about 240 billion USD in 2026. Looking ahead, prediction markets are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 80% per year, reaching an astonishing scale of 1 trillion USD annually by 2030.

Three major distribution channels become the biggest winners: DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase

Compared to pure Web3 prediction platforms, Bernstein believes that traditional giants with strong "distribution channels" and large user bases have a greater capacity to absorb traffic. The report specifically highlights three major winners:

• DraftKings: Considered the clearest winner, its prediction products are legal in California, Texas, and Florida (covering 52% of the Hispanic population in the US). Through cooperation with Telemundo TV network, it is expected to add about 650,000 funded prediction accounts during the World Cup, reaching 2 million by year-end.
• Robinhood: With about 13 million monthly active users, the company launched a joint venture with Susquehanna called "Rothera," a CFTC-compliant settlement platform, on the opening day of the World Cup to capture market share with lower fees. As of May this year, its prediction market handled approximately 16 billion contracts, with projected annualized revenue soaring to 586 million USD by year-end.
• Coinbase: With about 9 million monthly active users and the fastest growth rate, Coinbase has formed a deep alliance with compliant platform Kalshi. Just two months after launching its prediction section (March this year), its annualized revenue surpassed 100 million USD. This "Everything exchange" strategy is successfully attracting non-crypto-native users and diversifying revenue streams.

Polymarket market share declines, Kalshi rises to dominance

It is noteworthy that the competition landscape among pure-play prediction platforms has reshuffled. According to the latest data, as of May this year, the total monthly trading volume in prediction markets was about 31.2 billion USD (up 5% month-over-month). Among them, the compliant platform Kalshi led strongly with a trading volume of 17.9 billion USD, accounting for about 57% of the market share; in contrast, the former leader Polymarket saw a decline of 14.8%, with a trading volume of 7.1 billion USD.

Bernstein emphasizes at the end of the report that prediction markets are not entirely mutually exclusive with traditional sports betting but are complementary. Sporting events are merely the "gateway" to attract the masses; ultimately, prediction markets will evolve into a broader, comprehensive information trading hub, accelerating the reshaping of digital age information pricing models.