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‍# Spot silver weekly up 10%
Silver surges, why does gold fall behind?

Spot silver has risen approximately 10% over the past week, amid US April CPI and PPI data exceeding expectations, with inflation pressures continuing to heat up. Let’s see why silver can shake off gold and “rebelliously” surge?

Direct trigger:
1. US-China tariff relaxation (effective May 10):
US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145%→30%, China tariffs on US from 125%→10%
Industrial demand for silver (60%) is suddenly ignited: photovoltaic panels, semiconductors, electric vehicle parts production lines ramp up, factories rush to buy silver overnight

2. The “butterfly effect” in raw material supply chains:
Middle East conflict → crude oil surges → copper and zinc mine reductions (silver is a byproduct of mining) → silver supply gap widens
Current silver gap: sixth consecutive year of supply shortage, stockpiles are scarcer than a single man’s savings in a vault

The three truths behind gold’s “zen-like” complacency
1. The rate hike curse:
Federal Reserve official Collins said: “Rate hikes? Anytime!”
Gold’s internal OS: “I was born without interest, a 1% rate increase devalues me by 3%...”

2. The collapse of safe-haven persona:
Middle East conflict didn’t scare away capital, but pushed up oil prices → inflation → forcing the Fed to hike → gold suffers a series of blows

Gold: “Didn’t you promise to favor me during wartime? Human scumbag!”
3. The dominance of the dollar:
The more explosive the inflation data, the stronger the dollar (recently up to 98.5)

Gold: “Dollar, are you polite? Do you give me a raise?”

The gold-silver ratio hides secrets
Current gold-silver ratio: 53 (1 gram of gold ≈ 53 grams of silver)
Historical reenactment:
2025 silver increase 145% vs gold 64%

If this ratio drops below 40, silver may enter “berserk mode”
New trader logic: “Buy silver = buy the industrial revolution 2.0 + ride the gold halo”

Market scenario simulation

Two scripts for silver:
1. The “bullish continuation” version (60% probability):
Conditions: Middle East ceasefire / Fed eases rate cuts
Target price: $100 (photovoltaic factory owners excited)
2. The rollercoaster horror version (40% probability):
Conditions: CPI explodes again → 90% rate hike expectation → speculators sell off
Support level: $80 (miners tearfully defend the market)

The path to gold’s redemption:
Break through $4,800 to awaken the bulls, otherwise continue to be self-closed in the “rate hike fear house”
The only hope: global central banks keep buying (China accumulated another 30 tons in April)