CITIC Construction Investment: Continuamos a favoritar o valor de investimento no setor de baterias de estado sólido

中信建投研报称，锂电设备方面，车企明确全固态装车指引，静待设备端招标催化。
A CITIC Jin Invest report states that in the field of lithium battery equipment, automakers have clarified guidelines for all-solid-state vehicle installation, awaiting bidding catalysts from the equipment side.
固态电池领域产业化进展显著，各大企业集中公告全固态电池成功下线及后续上车指引，引起较大关注。
The solid-state battery sector has made significant progress in industrialization, with major companies announcing the successful rollout of all-solid-state batteries and subsequent vehicle installation guidelines, attracting considerable attention.
当前板块整体处于“击球区”， 头部电池厂也已启动GWh级全固态电池生产设备招标，计划2027年实现小批量示范装车，2030年达成大规模量产目标，对于设备企业订单兑现和业绩释放的时间窗口正在打开，产业链量价齐升可期，继续看好固态电池板块的配置价值。
The current sector is overall in the “batting zone,” with leading battery manufacturers having also initiated tenders for GWh-level all-solid-state battery production equipment, planning to achieve small-scale demonstration vehicle installation by 2027 and large-scale production targets by 2030. The time window for equipment companies to fulfill orders and release performance is opening, and a rise in both volume and price in the industry chain can be expected; we remain optimistic about the allocation value of the solid-state battery sector.

全文如下

宇树科技IPO获受理，AIDC发电设备持续受益北美缺电
　　Yushut Technology IPO accepted; AIDC power generation equipment continues to benefit from North America’s electricity shortage
　　人形机器人：板块逐步进入配置区间，宇树IPO和特斯拉V3均蓄势待发。
　　Humanoid robots: The sector is gradually entering the allocation range, with Yushut’s IPO and Tesla V3 both poised for action.
　　国内方面，马年春晚引爆国产机器人关注，展现出卓越的运控表现和操作能力，2026年有望成为人形垂类应用大年。
　　Domestically, the Spring Festival Gala in the Year of the Horse ignited interest in domestic robots, showcasing excellent control and operational capabilities, with 2026 expected to be a big year for humanoid vertical applications.
　　同时，宇树等国产机器人公司IPO持续推进，本体产品价值量高且接近终端客户，在产业链中地位显著、品牌力凸显，本体厂商有望估值重估，建议关注相关供应链。
　　At the same time, Yushut and other domestic robot companies are continuously advancing their IPOs, with high intrinsic product value and proximity to end customers, making their position in the supply chain significant and their brand strength prominent. Intrinsic manufacturers are likely to see a valuation reassessment, and related supply chains are recommended for attention.
　　海外方面，特斯拉Optimus 3将于今年夏天启动生产，遵循S曲线爬坡，预计明年有望进入高产量阶段；同时Optimus版本持续更新，有望进一步丰富产品应用、走向C端。
　　On the overseas front, Tesla’s Optimus 3 is set to start production this summer, following an S-curve ramp-up, with expectations to enter a high-output phase next year; at the same time, the Optimus version continues to be updated, likely further enriching product applications and moving towards the C-end.

AIDC发电设备：缺电仍是全年主线，坚定看好燃机产业链。
　　AIDC power generation equipment: Electricity shortages remain the main theme for the year, and we are firmly optimistic about the gas turbine supply chain.
　　根据我们测算，2028年全球燃机需求将超120GW，预计全球燃机供给约90GW，缺口持续扩大，继续看好燃机产业链以及船改燃等趋势。
　　According to our estimates, global gas turbine demand will exceed 120GW by 2028, while global supply is expected to be around 90GW, with the gap continuing to widen. We remain optimistic about the gas turbine supply chain and trends such as ship-to-gas conversions.

工程机械：1-2月挖机出口高增，预计Q1业绩将有较好表现。
　　Construction machinery: Excavator exports saw significant growth in January-February, and Q1 performance is expected to be strong.
　　2026年1-2月共销售挖掘机35934台，同比增长13.1%。
　　In January-February 2026, a total of 35,934 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%.
　　其中：国内销量15478台，同比下降9.19%；出口20456台，同比增长38.8%。
　　Of these, domestic sales were 15,478 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.19%; exports were 20,456 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%.
　　国内出现同比个位数下滑，但出口表现强劲，作为业绩主要贡献业务，预计Q1主机厂业绩将实现高增。
　　Domestic figures showed a single-digit year-on-year decline, but exports performed strongly. As a major contributor to performance, Q1 results for main engine manufacturers are expected to show significant growth.
　　总体来看，我们预计2026年国内市场有望实现10%以上增长，出口有望实现15%以上增长，内外需持续共振向上。
　　Overall, we expect the domestic market to achieve over 10% growth in 2026, with exports expected to grow over 15%, as domestic and external demand continues to resonate upwards.

半导体设备：SEMICON展会在即，各家发布新品有望对板块形成催化。
　　Semiconductor equipment: With the SEMICON exhibition approaching, each company’s new product releases are expected to catalyze the sector.
　　下游扩产方面，预计2026年fab厂资本开支仍将向上，其中存储确定性最强，先进逻辑有望继续维持强劲表现。
　　In terms of downstream expansion, capital expenditures for fabs are expected to increase in 2026, with storage having the strongest certainty and advanced logic likely to continue performing strongly.
　　国产化率方面，下游对国产设备普遍加速验证导入，零部件、尤其是模组类零部件国产化进程有望加快，板块整体基本面向好，本轮应当更加重视“去日化”。
　　Regarding localization rates, downstream validation and introduction of domestic equipment are generally accelerating, and the localization process for components, especially module-type components, is expected to speed up. The overall fundamentals of the sector are favorable, and this round should place greater emphasis on “de-Japanization.”

锂电设备：车企明确全固态装车指引，静待设备端招标催化。
　　Lithium battery equipment: Automakers have clarified guidelines for all-solid-state vehicle installation, awaiting bidding catalysts from the equipment side.
　　固态电池领域产业化进展显著，各大企业集中公告全固态电池成功下线及后续上车指引，引起较大关注。
　　The solid-state battery sector has made significant progress in industrialization, with major companies announcing the successful rollout of all-solid-state batteries and subsequent vehicle installation guidelines, attracting considerable attention.
　　当前板块整体处于“击球区”， 头部电池厂也已启动GWh级全固态电池生产设备招标，计划2027年实现小批量示范装车，2030年达成大规模量产目标，对于设备企业订单兑现和业绩释放的时间窗口正在打开，产业链量价齐升可期，继续看好固态电池板块的配置价值。
　　The current sector is overall in the “batting zone,” with leading battery manufacturers having also initiated tenders for GWh-level all-solid-state battery production equipment, planning to achieve small-scale demonstration vehicle installation by 2027 and large-scale production targets by 2030. The time window for equipment companies to fulfill orders and release performance is opening, and a rise in both volume and price in the industry chain can be expected; we remain optimistic about the allocation value of the solid-state battery sector.

风险提示：国内宏观经济波动的风险、海外市场波动的风险、下游扩产不及预期的风险。
　　Risk warning: Risks of domestic macroeconomic fluctuations, risks of fluctuations in overseas markets, risks of downstream expansion not meeting expectations.

（文章来源：第一财经）
(Source: First Financial)