¡El precio del petróleo debe ser de 80 dólares para no tener pérdidas! El plan de petróleo de Venezuela de Trump enfrenta "desafíos de costos"

Trump’s Venezuela oil plan hits a wall, high costs and political risks deter U.S. oil companies.

Last week, U.S. President Trump announced that the interim Venezuelan authorities would transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, and subsequently claimed that his government would hold “indefinite” control over Venezuela’s oil sales.

He also stated that he would invite major U.S. oil companies to operate in Venezuela, investing billions of dollars to repair the severely aging local oil infrastructure.

However, this plan faces severe challenges on both economic and political fronts. The breakeven cost for Venezuela’s heavy crude has exceeded $80 per barrel, far above the previous international oil price of $60, making oil extraction unprofitable.

(WTI crude oil prices currently rise to around $77)

Meanwhile, the historical precedent of asset confiscation makes major oil companies highly cautious about returning to Venezuela.

Reserves are vast but extraction costs are high

Venezuela is one of the founding members of OPEC, with the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

It is estimated that its proven reserves are about 3,030 billion barrels, accounting for approximately 17% of the global total, more than five times the 550 billion barrels in the U.S., surpassing major Gulf exporters like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran.

Most of these reserves are concentrated in the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt, a vast area located in eastern Venezuela, stretching about 600 km east-west and about 70 km north-south, covering roughly 55,000 square kilometers. This area is divided into four exploration and development blocks: Boyaca, Junín, Auyán, and Carabobo, mainly operated by the Venezuelan state oil company (PDVSA).

However, large reserves do not equate to accessible wealth. Venezuela’s oil is ultra-heavy crude, with high viscosity and density, making extraction much more difficult than conventional oil, requiring advanced techniques such as steam injection and blending with lighter oils. Due to its high density and sulfur content, ultra-heavy crude is usually sold at a discount on the market.

According to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, the breakeven cost for the main oil types in the Orinoco Belt has averaged over $80 per barrel, well above the approximately $55 breakeven for Canadian heavy oil. This means that under current price conditions, Venezuelan oil extraction is not economically feasible.

Additionally, Venezuela’s reserve data are self-reported, with a high risk of overestimation. Reuters reported that in 2011, when international oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel, OPEC listed Venezuela as the country with the largest reserves in the world.

The concept of “proven reserves” in the oil industry is not just geological but also economic. Simply put, only when extracting that barrel of oil is profitable does it count as “proven reserves.” If oil prices are too low and extraction results in losses, then that barrel effectively does not exist on the books.

Rystad Energy estimates that, excluding price factors, Venezuela’s oil reserves are about 60 billion barrels.

Restoring capacity requires hundreds of billions of dollars in investment

The decline of Venezuela’s oil industry is alarming.

Once a country exporting 3.5 million barrels daily, today its production has fallen to about 1 million barrels, due to aging infrastructure, long-term underinvestment, mismanagement, and sanctions.

To restore production to its 1970s peak levels, enormous investment is needed. According to Francisco Monaldi, Director of Latin American Energy Policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute, U.S. major oil companies would need to invest $10 billion annually over the next decade, totaling $100 billion.

Even just maintaining current levels, Rystad Energy estimates that $53 billion in investment will be needed over the next 15 years. To increase production to over 1.4 million barrels per day, an additional approximately $120 billion would be required by 2040.

The Trump administration has expressed willingness to provide security guarantees but has explicitly stated it will not fund oil projects, further raising the barrier for private capital entry.

High political risks, oil companies hesitant

Beyond financial considerations, political risks are also a major obstacle for oil companies.

Former President Hugo Chávez significantly strengthened state control over the oil industry during his tenure. In 2007, the government introduced new contract terms requiring the Venezuelan state oil company to hold a majority stake in joint ventures.

However, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips refused to accept these conditions, leading Chávez’s government to forcibly expel these companies. To this day, ConocoPhillips still has about $10 billion in unresolved claims. Currently, only Chevron has authorization to operate in Venezuela and export crude to the U.S.

Last Friday, reports indicated that Trump met with oil company executives, with ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods stating:

Our assets there have been expropriated twice, so you can imagine that a third return would require significant changes.

According to reports, until a government in Venezuela can win the trust of international investors and banks, oil companies will be reluctant to make any major commitments.

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