After the United States attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, the risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 33%.

[Coin World] The threat to the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. attack on Iran has sparked market attention, and negotiations are still possible. Here’s a recap of today – highlighting key signals driving the market: 1. On Friday, Iran held its first meeting with European officials, but no breakthroughs were achieved. 2. On Saturday evening Eastern Time, the U.S. launched attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities, but the extent of the damage is still unclear. 3. The Iranian parliament believes the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Analysts estimate the likelihood of Iran actually closing the strait to be less than 15%, and the prediction market has also lowered this probability to 33%. This is due to historical precedents of such threats that have never been acted upon, and closing the strait would harm the economies of Asian and Gulf countries, thus limiting Iran’s options. 4. Both the U.S. and Iran have shown a willingness to negotiate: U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin stated that the U.S. has conveyed messages to Iran through various channels, urging it to engage in peaceful negotiations; Iran’s foreign minister indicated that Iran has not yet decided whether to close the door on diplomatic dialogue.