Silk Road's $6.5 Billion Bitcoin Or Sell-Off, What's The Aftermath?
According to Gate.io market data, BTC is currently priced at $94,357.04, with a 24-hour decline of 2%. Earlier this morning, BTC fell to around $92,500, breaking below the daily middle line of the Bollinger Bands, and the short-term trend may not be optimistic.
In addition, from a news perspective, the US Department of Justice has been authorized to liquidate the 69,370 BTC (currently worth about 6.5 billion US dollars) seized in the Silk Road case. Bitcoin price Volatility cited as reason for seeking permission to dump these assets. When asked about the next steps, a spokesperson for the Department of Justice said, “The government will take the next steps according to the judgment of this case.” The progress of this event is the “permission to sell,” but the Department of Justice is temporarily unable to determine when these bitcoins will be sold.
Since 2014, the US government has auctioned off confiscated bitcoins from the ‘Silk Road’ case multiple times. The first auction in June 2014, with about 30,000 bitcoins, was expected to cause a price crash, but the actual performance was stable, with the price staying around $600 without significant fluctuations. Subsequent auctions, including those in December 2014 and March 2015, did not lead to a major price drop despite the increased scale, instead indicating a gradual trend towards the legalization of bitcoin. By the end of 2015, the government had auctioned off over 100,000 bitcoins without causing significant turbulence in the price. As of today, the remaining 69,370 bitcoins are still pending liquidation.
Based on historical data, although there may be short-term price fluctuations, the negative impact on bitcoin prices is not expected to last long as most of the auctions have been conducted over-the-counter (OTC).
BTC Market Analysis
Trading Data
- Current price: 94,357.04 USDT
- 24-hour highest price: 96,281.48 USDT
- 24-hour Lowest Price: 92,508.06 USDT
- 24-hour price change: -2.00%
- Fear and Greed Index: 69 (Greed)
- 24-hour net outflow of funds: -2,021,130,923 USDT
- Support level: 93,814.6 USDT
- Resistance level: 95,605.5 USDT
Trading Strategy Advice
Strategy 1: Short-term short strategy
- Direction: short
- Entry price: 94,300 USDT (close to current price)
- Stop Loss Price: 95,600 USDT (above resistance level)
- Target price: 92,500 USDT (close to 24-hour low)
Reasons and features: - The current market sentiment is greedy, and technical indicators (such as RSI) show overbought, which may lead to a price correction.
- Choose to enter near the current price and take advantage of short-term price fluctuations.
- Stop loss is set above the resistance level to prevent losses from price rebounds.
Strategy 2: Short-term Long Strategy
- Direction: Long
- Entry Price: 94,000 USDT (near the support level)
- Stop-loss price: 93,000 USDT (below the support level)
- Target price: 95,500 USDT (approaching resistance level)
Reasons and characteristics: - Although the current market sentiment is biased towards greed, the presence of support levels may attract buying interest.
- Enter near the support level and take advantage of the rebound opportunity.
- Stop loss is set below the support level to control risk.
Outlook
In 2024, Trump promised during his presidential campaign that if elected, he would reduce the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the ‘Silk Road,’ and reiterated multiple times that he would promote the United States to become the global center of cryptocurrency. At the same time, regarding whether the US government will sell the confiscated bitcoins in the Silk Road case before Trump takes office, the betting on PolyMarket shows that the market’s expectation for the sale of bitcoins is 22%.
Most people believe that Ulbricht has a good chance of getting a commutation or pardon, with a current 73% chance of pardon. In addition, there is speculation in the market that if the US government does not sell Bitcoin before Trump takes office, the Bitcoin involved in the Silk Road case may not be dumped.
