Estados Unidos e Irán acuerdan un alto el fuego temporal, Hengke sube más del 4% en medio día, analistas: el punto de inflexión aún no ha llegado

South China Morning Post 21st Century Business Herald Reporter Yuan Sijie Hong Kong Report

Impulsed by news of the US and Iran reaching a temporary ceasefire agreement and a significant easing of international geopolitical tensions, the Hong Kong stock market opened sharply higher on the first trading day after Easter and Qingming Festival holidays, with the three major indices all gaining strength. By midday, the Hang Seng Index was at 25,821.88 points, up 2.81%; the China Enterprises Index was at 8,656.06 points, up 2.35%; and the Hang Seng Tech Index was at 4,885.87 points, up 4.42%.

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump posted on social media on the evening of the 7th that after a call with Pakistan, he agreed to suspend bombings and attacks on Iran for two weeks, provided Iran agrees to open the Strait of Hormuz “comprehensively, immediately, and safely.”

Xinhua also reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif posted on social media on the morning of April 8, announcing that Iran, the United States, and their allies have agreed to an immediate ceasefire in all regions, including Lebanon, “with immediate effect.” Shahbaz stated that he welcomed the upcoming negotiations in Islamabad on April 10 between U.S. and Iranian delegations to reach a final agreement aimed at resolving all disputes.

Boosted by the above news, Hong Kong stocks opened sharply higher this morning, with the Hang Seng Index opening 656 points higher, a 2.61% increase; the Hang Seng Tech Index opened 137 points higher, a 2.95% increase. After the market opened, sentiment continued to ferment, and the Hang Seng Index’s intraday gains expanded to 3%, reaching 25,872.3 points.

In the market, large technology stocks, as market barometers, all strengthened, with tech stocks rising across the board. By midday, Alibaba was up 4.47%, Meituan up 9.84%, Bilibili up over 5%, and SenseTime up over 9%. The semiconductor sector performed strongly, with Huahong Semiconductor up over 14% and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation up over 8%. The non-ferrous metals sector also gained strength, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 9% and Zijin Mining surging 6.68%.

Affected by the US-Iran ceasefire news, international oil prices experienced sharp fluctuations. By midday, Hong Kong oil and gas stocks came under pressure, with CNOOC down 3.55%, PetroChina down 2.04%, and Shandong Moluon falling over 10%.

Meanwhile, the aviation sector rose due to the dual benefits of falling oil prices and improved travel sentiment. By midday, Air China was up 5.44%, China Southern Airlines up 5.68%, and Cathay Pacific rose over 4%.

On the capital side, southbound funds saw a net inflow of over 220.8 billion HKD in the first quarter, becoming an important support force for the bottom of the Hong Kong stock market.

The sustainability of the current US-Iran ceasefire agreement remains a core variable of market concern. This ceasefire lasts for two weeks, and the outcome of the Islamabad negotiations on April 10 remains uncertain. Whether the Middle East situation can truly cool down from this point still carries significant uncertainty. Against this backdrop, how will the Hong Kong stock market perform in the future?

Boda Capital International CEO Wen Tianna told reporters that the current ceasefire news essentially reflects a short-term risk appetite sentiment release, rather than a fundamental reversal of the underlying logic of Hong Kong stocks. The two-week window and the great uncertainty of the Islamabad negotiations mean this is more like a “breather” rather than a “turning point.” The long-term core anchors of Hong Kong stocks still firmly depend on the recovery quality of the mainland economy, the implementation pace of structural policies, and the tightening or loosening of global liquidity.

Senior investment strategist Duan Nairong of Royal Bank of Canada Wealth Management pointed out that the short-term boost brought by the ceasefire, especially the rebound in growth stocks, is likely an emotional release rather than a fundamental improvement—many preconditions retained in the announcements between both sides lay the groundwork for future fluctuations. Investors should prepare for continued volatility and proactively enhance the “antifragility” of their portfolios.

Looking ahead, Wen Tianna suggested that investors remain cautiously optimistic in the short term (1-2 weeks), viewing pullbacks as tactical entry opportunities, but must strictly adhere to profit-taking and stop-loss discipline. From a 1-3 month perspective, investors should return to fundamentals and performance, recommending reducing pure cyclical energy exposure and shifting focus toward policy-supported, reasonably valued, and high-performance technology hardware, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing sectors. Additionally, controlling positions, diversifying allocations, monitoring southbound funds, and trading volume are factors to watch closely.

Regarding specific allocations, Duan Nairong said that if investors already hold oil stocks at low levels, they can continue to wait for the lagging benefits of Middle Eastern supply recovery, but currently chasing high is not cost-effective.

Duan Nairong also recommended that Hong Kong stock investors focus on the lithium battery industry chain and high-dividend stocks: the accelerated construction of global energy security continues to benefit these sectors, with the dual demand growth for energy storage and power batteries providing strong support for profitability; meanwhile, telecom stocks and Hong Kong bank stocks, after adjustments, are re-emerging as valuable options for stable capital allocation.