#美伊停火协议谈判再生变故 Recurrent variables, tonight's key data!

Overnight, spot gold briefly broke above the $4850 level during trading, reaching a nearly three-week high before giving back most of its gains intraday, ultimately closing up 0.29% at $4719.35. During the European session today, gold traded within a narrow range and is currently hovering around $4723.

U.S. stocks opened higher and closed higher, with all three major indices rising over 2%, including the S&P and Nasdaq, which have now gained six consecutive days. At the close, the S&P 500 rose 2.51% to 6782.81 points; the Nasdaq Composite increased 2.8% to 22635 points, both up for six straight trading days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.85% to 47909.92 points.

On the news front, hawkish Fed minutes exert pressure. Early morning Beijing time on April 9, the Federal Reserve released the March monetary policy meeting minutes, announcing that the federal funds rate target range would remain at 3.5% to 3.75% for the second consecutive time.
The latest minutes show that after the outbreak of the Iran conflict, policymakers expressed clear disagreements about the outlook for the U.S. economy, discussing different scenarios and their corresponding policy responses. Most officials are concerned that a prolonged conflict could impact the labor market, potentially requiring rate cuts; however, many also emphasized that rising inflation risks could ultimately necessitate rate hikes.
Among them, officials leaning toward "rate hike risks" urged the Fed to include language in the post-meeting statement to emphasize scenarios where rate hikes might occur under certain conditions.
Overall, Fed policymakers’ responses to the Middle East conflict reflect dual concerns on both ends of their dual mandate.
Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist dubbed the “voice of the Fed,” wrote that a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran offers an opportunity to mitigate the latest serious threats facing the global economy. But for the Fed, this might just be swapping one problem for another: a sustained energy shock just long enough to push inflation higher without severely damaging demand, leading to prolonged stable interest rates.
According to CME “Fed Watch”: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April is 1.6%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 98.4%. The chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by June is 1.7%, with a 96.8% chance of no change, and a 1.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike.
Looking ahead to today’s trading, investors will focus on PCE data. At 20:30 Beijing time on April 9, the U.S. will release the February PCE Price Index, with market expectations as follows:
The previous February PCE Price Index annual rate was 3.1%, with a forecast of 3%; the previous month-on-month PCE Price Index was 0.4%, with a forecast of 0.4%. If core PCE YoY falls below 3.0% as expected, indicating that energy shocks have not yet significantly transmitted to core inflation, then Powell’s previous “temporary disregard of supply shocks” framework will be strongly supported by data.
However, strong non-farm payrolls will still limit the scope for rate cuts—market expectations may shift from “zero rate cuts this year” to “one rate cut by year-end.” If February core PCE YoY drops as expected to 3.0%, the market will interpret this as a slow decline in pre-conflict inflation, with energy shocks from the war already being factored into the data. The Fed will likely maintain a “wait-and-see” stance, focusing on whether subsequent data can confirm the persistence of energy shocks.
Regarding the future of U.S. stocks, Wall Street Journal citing SpotGamma data states that there is about a $10 billion positive Gamma concentration zone near 6800 points on the S&P 500 (in the 85th percentile historically). Positive Gamma will create resistance to further upward movement, and as quick money is taken off the table, the market will gradually shift toward consolidation, with volatility further declining.

In addition, investors should also pay attention to international developments. The situation in Iran remains uncertain! On April 8, local time, the first day of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the IDF launched its largest airstrike since the current conflict with Hezbollah. The Israel Defense Forces announced on the afternoon of the 8th that they had carried out a large-scale strike against Lebanon, with 50 fighter