Las reservas de divisas se mantienen en 3.3 billones de dólares en marzo, y el banco central ha aumentado sus reservas de oro durante 17 meses consecutivos

Periodical Securities Times reporter He Jueyuan

On April 7, the latest statistics released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that as of the end of March 2026, China’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.34T, down $85.7 billion from the end of February, a decline of 2.5%. At present, China’s foreign exchange reserves remain at a level among the highest in the past 10 years, having stayed steadily above $33 trillion for 8 consecutive months.

Regarding the month-on-month decline in the foreign exchange reserves in March, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange analyzed that, affected by factors such as the global macro environment, monetary policies and expectations of major economies, and others, the U.S. dollar index rose and prices of major global financial assets fell. As a result of the combined effects of factors including foreign exchange translation and changes in asset prices, the foreign exchange reserves decreased during the month.

Since March, developments in the Iran situation have caused severe volatility in global assets. Oil prices have surged sharply, while global asset prices have generally fallen. Driven by the intensifying expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the return of funds seeking safety, in March the U.S. dollar index strengthened and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose.

“Rising oil prices have increased inflation expectations; the market has even started betting on Federal Reserve rate hikes. Supported by the two factors of keeping high interest rates for longer and the return of safe-haven funds, the U.S. dollar index has continued to strengthen.” Minsheng Bank’s chief economist Wen Bin told the Securities Times reporter.

From the perspective of exchange-rate factors, in March the U.S. dollar index rose 2.4% month-on-month. During the month it once broke above the 100 level; non-U.S. dollar currencies weakened overall, thereby reducing the size of foreign exchange reserves denominated in U.S. dollars.

From the perspective of asset price factors, in March the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 33 basis points to 4.3%. Global stock markets experienced severe volatility and moved downward overall, with the prices of major financial assets declining across the board.

Against the backdrop of increased external risk shocks, in March China’s foreign exchange reserves remained solid above $33 trillion, providing a firmer safety cushion for two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange noted that China’s economic operations are generally steady, with progress being made while maintaining stability. New achievements in high-quality development have provided support for keeping the foreign exchange reserves broadly stable in size.

“With the switch in growth momentum among major economies, the space for a one-way rise in the U.S. dollar index is limited.” Pan Ming, a specially appointed senior research fellow at the National Financial and Development Laboratory, said to reporters. Once the Federal Reserve’s policy shift becomes clear, exchange-rate translation factors will change from a “drag” to a “contribution,” driving a rebound in the size of foreign exchange reserves.

China’s foreign exchange reserves mainly come from trade surpluses, foreign direct investment, and capital flows. Looking ahead to the next stage, Wen Bin believes that exports will continue to play the role of the basic driver of the balance of international payments: against the backdrop of oil-price shocks affecting global production and supply chains, China’s advantages in new energy manufacturing and across-the-whole-industry-chain will become even more prominent. In terms of cross-border capital flows, as China’s level of facilitation for cross-border investment and financing continues to improve, foreign direct investment will maintain steady operations. At the same time, the valuation advantage and allocation value of RMB assets have become prominent, and securities investment is expected to continue to see inflows in a reasonable scale.

Official data on the updated reserve assets released that day also showed that as of the end of March 2026, China’s official gold reserves were 74.38 million ounces, up by 160k ounces from the end of the previous month. This is the first time since March 2025 that the People’s Bank of China increased holdings of more than 100k ounces in a single month. At present, the central bank has been adding to its gold reserves for 17 consecutive months.

Gold is an important component of the diversified composition of international reserves of countries, offering advantages such as hedging against risks, combating inflation, and preserving and appreciating value over the long term. Since March, the gold price has undergone significant adjustments. Regarding the reasons for the sharp decline in the month, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute at Yuekai Securities, pointed out in a research report that the main factors include: geopolitical developments pushing inflation higher along with expectations of monetary tightening; funds taking profits at high levels; and liquidity panic triggered by stock market volatility, which brought about passive selling pressure on gold.

“Non-U.S. central banks’ willingness to buy gold remains strong and is expected to continue to push up the gold price’s central level.” Luo Zhiheng said that increasing holdings of gold has become an important choice for non-U.S. central banks to enhance financial security. Emerging-market central banks are especially active, and there is still considerable room for reserve growth.