Morgan Stanley ajusta a la baja las expectativas para el sector de aerolíneas en EE. UU. debido al aumento en los costos del combustible de aviación

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley stated on Monday that, due to the war in the Middle East causing a surge in aviation fuel prices, it is cutting its expectations for the U.S. airline sector across the board.

The broker also noted that, despite high fuel prices and frequent weather disruptions, U.S. airlines still showed resilience in early 2026.

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According to a team led by Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker, the airlines’ quarterly interim updates were stronger than expected, driven by strong travel demand and healthy trends in forward bookings.

They said that if this momentum can carry through the upcoming earnings updates in April and May, the sector could enter a “new era of earnings resilience,” and may also drive higher stock valuations.

Shares of United Airlines (NYSE:UAL) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) fell in early trading Monday, while Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) shares rose slightly.

"We are cutting our expectations across the board—first quarter is trending toward the low end of the initial guidance, followed by a significant drag in the second quarter (based on an approximately $4.00 per gallon baseline aviation fuel assumption; the initial fuel shock after deducting transportation costs will be offset by the portion of the remaining roughly 60% of the summer booking prices that rebound),” the analyst said.

Since the outbreak of the Iran war, fuel prices have surged significantly, and crude oil prices briefly jumped to nearly $120 per barrel. Given rising fuel costs, several U.S. airlines have increased baggage fees; according to reports, JetBlue increased its baggage fees last month.

Morgan Stanley currently expects aviation fuel prices of about $3.20 in the third quarter and about $2.80 in the fourth quarter. The broker also expects a modest reduction in capacity in the third quarter, resulting in a net impact on U.S. airlines’ cost per available seat mile (excluding foreign exchange).

“However, we assume that fuel and pricing dynamics will normalize relatively, and by 2028 our expectations will return to the prior assumptions,” the analyst said.

“We expect the 2026 fiscal year guidance will either be fully withdrawn or, more likely, updated to a very broad range of scenarios (possibly providing multiple ranges based on fuel assumptions), which will make it almost meaningless, even though airlines are unlikely to be able to blame that,” they added.

Since late February, following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, global airfare prices have risen, and airlines have tried to pass higher fuel costs on to customers.

“Hope for a relatively calm 2026 was dashed by two generational weather events in January and February, as well as the Middle East conflict—which pushed aviation fuel prices to near the highest levels in history,” the analyst said.

“The combination of these circumstances may destroy the old airline sector, but the current industry has been forged in the fires of the COVID-19 pandemic and is fighting back with quarterly interim updates far stronger than expected,” they noted.

The analyst said that if demand remains strong and airlines successfully manage costs, 2026 may mark a structural shift toward greater stability for the industry. However, any signs of weaker demand or fuel prices staying elevated could derail the recovery, making 2026 another challenging year, and pushing a full rebound back to 2027.

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