Morgan Stanley prevé que el rendimiento de las empresas de carbón de la India y JSW Steel será excelente

Investing.com – Morgan Stanley India business unit predicts that India’s coal companies and JSW Steel will perform well in the upcoming earnings, while Jindal Steel is expected to perform poorly.

Morgan Stanley said India’s crude steel production may achieve double-digit year-on-year growth this quarter. Data from the Joint Plant Committee for January to February shows about 11% year-on-year growth, while the year-on-year growth in the third quarter of FY2026 is about 10%.

In this quarter, growth in finished steel demand improves to about 8-9% year-on-year, higher than the approximately 4% year-on-year growth in the previous quarter, mainly due to an increase in construction activity and expanded government spending. Sales data disclosed by India Steel Authority (SAIL) show about 12% year-on-year growth. Morgan Stanley expects Jindal Steel to deliver about 15% year-on-year growth, Tata Steel’s India business to grow about 11%, while JSW Steel’s India business to grow about 6%.

Due to improving demand and support from the deferral of safeguard tariffs, domestic steel prices rose sharply in this quarter. Hot rolled coil prices increased quarter-over-quarter by about 14% to 6,600 rupees per tonne, while rebar prices increased quarter-over-quarter by about 15% to 6,200 rupees per tonne.

Morgan Stanley expects its covered companies’ domestic net sales to expand on average by about 4,900 rupees per tonne. India Steel Authority is expected to benefit the most, with an increase of 6,500 rupees per tonne; followed by JSW Steel at 6,000 rupees per tonne, while Tata Steel and Jindal Steel are expected to achieve smaller increases of 2,700 rupees per tonne and 3,000 rupees per tonne, respectively.

Raw material costs rose somewhat in this quarter. India National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) prices increased quarter-over-quarter by about 4%, or about 200 rupees per tonne. Due to supply disruptions related to Australian weather, coking coal prices surged significantly; the hard coking coal price in the Peak Downs region rose quarter-over-quarter by about 18%. The average coking coal price rose from about $186 per tonne in the second quarter of FY2026 to about $205 per tonne in the third quarter, and rose to about $241 per tonne in the fourth quarter.

Despite higher raw material costs, Morgan Stanley expects its covered companies’ domestic EBITDA to expand by about 3,000 rupees per tonne to 11,300 rupees per tonne.

India Coal Company disclosed that production increased year-on-year by about 1%, while shipments fell year-on-year by about 2%. Morgan Stanley expects its realized price to expand year-on-year by about 7%; the e-auction premium increased from 62% in the previous quarter to 71%. Overall EBITDA is expected to be about 119 billion rupees, compared with about 93 billion rupees in the previous quarter and about 118 billion rupees in the fourth quarter of FY2025. The estimated profit after tax is about 102 billion rupees.

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