Estrategia de Everbright: La oscilación no altera la resistencia, esperando señales de catalización

This week, A-shares fluctuate and trend downward

This week, A-shares fluctuate and move downward. Judging by major broad-market indices, this week’s major A-share broad-market indices generally closed lower. The declines in the SSE 50, the SSE Composite Index, and the CSI 300 were relatively smaller, while those in the ChiNext Index, the STAR 50, and the CSI 500 were relatively larger. In terms of valuation, the valuation percentiles of indices such as the STAR 50 and Wind All A are currently relatively high. As of April 3, 2026, the PE (TTM) percentiles since 2010 for these indices are all higher than 85%.

Review of important events this week

On the policy front, nine departments jointly issued the《Action Plan for Promoting Innovative Development of the Internet of Things Industry (2026—2028)》, clarifying that it will take five major measures: promoting innovative upgrades of IoT devices, improving the service effectiveness of IoT platforms, cultivating IoT application scenarios, strengthening the network infrastructure for the IoT, and creating an industry development ecosystem for the IoT; The State Council General Office issued the《关于 Establishing an Implementation Plan for a Comprehensive Evaluation System of Enterprise Credit Status》, requiring the improvement of the public credit evaluation system.

On the industry front, the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance released a report estimating that from 2024 to 2035, the global cumulative installed capacity of battery energy storage will surge by 8-17 times; data from the China Index Academy shows that from January to March 2026, the total sales amount of the TOP100 real estate developers was 620.87 billion yuan, narrowing the year-on-year decline by 3.7 percentage points compared with January to February; according to a message on the Ministry of Commerce website, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance are currently carrying out the work of purchasing and storing central reserve frozen pork in recent times. For overseas developments, according to a CCTV News report citing information from Iran on April 2, Iran and Oman plan to jointly supervise vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz; CCTV News on April 2 reported that, citing sources, the UK side said that Gulf countries are reconsidering constructing a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to continue exporting oil and natural gas; recently, Trump has again threatened to strike Iranian facilities.

Fluctuations don’t change resilience; waiting for catalyst signals

Three potential turning points in the market. Although domestically we inevitably have to bear the impact brought by oil price volatility and the downward trend in short-term risk appetite, on the one hand, China’s domestic energy self-sufficiency rate is relatively high, giving it some resistance to sustained rises in external energy prices. On the other hand, judging from several rounds of overseas volatility in the past, China’s exports typically benefit from the rise in external uncertainty, which may be aided by the stability of domestic supply chains. Therefore, over the medium term, we believe Chinese assets have endogenous stability and are likely to attract continued inflows of capital. Looking ahead to April, the market’s potential turning points may come from the following three directions: 1）Listed company performance exceeds expectations. In April, listed companies’ 2025 annual reports and their 2026 Q1 reports will be released one after another. Based on the current situation, overall listed company performance will improve slightly. In terms of structure, science-and-technology innovation-related and cyclical enterprises also have outstanding highlights. Fundamental improvement beyond expectations is expected to support an upward move in the market. 2）Medium- and long-term funds enter the market. Current policies continue to support medium- and long-term funds entering the market. The prior market pullback is expected to trigger medium- and long-term funds entering the market again, supporting the market to bottom out and rebound. 3）External risk factors ease. Easing prior risk factors is one of the most direct potential catalysts for the market to move up, but predictability is relatively poor.

Structurally, we suggest focusing on the directions that have been previously oversold, the directions that benefit from rising commodity prices, and industries whose performance may exceed expectations. Since the outbreak of the Iran-U.S. conflict, industry performance differences have been significant, and adjustments in two types of industries have been the most pronounced: one is growth-related directions that were at relatively high levels earlier; the other is resource-sector directions in which product prices were significantly affected. If the market sees a reversal in the future, these two types of industries are expected to perform better. At the same time, we suggest focusing on industries that are expected to benefit from rising commodity prices, including resource sectors, essential consumption, hard technology, and directions related to government investment. In addition, industries with high growth rates in annual reports and Q1 reports are worth重点 attention, or mainly concentrated in resource and technology-related industries.

Risk analysis

1、The progress of policy implementation falls short of expectations; 2、Market sentiment drops significantly; 3、Economic growth rate falls far short of expectations; 4、China-U.S. relations deteriorate significantly; 5、The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate.

（Source: Everbright Securities）