"Portavoz de la Reserva Federal": el bajo crecimiento del empleo podría convertirse en una nueva normalidad, pero es especialmente vulnerable en un contexto de guerra

Deep Tide TechFlow message, April 04, “The Federal Reserve’s megaphone” Nick Timiraos wrote that March saw 178k new jobs, reversing the sharp decline in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. But some details are not so optimistic: wage growth for ordinary workers slowed to the lowest year-over-year pace in five years since the post-pandemic recovery. Averaging these two months with larger fluctuations makes it clearer to see the underlying trend: the monthly average of new jobs is only 22.5k. Two years ago, monthly new jobs of 22.5k were enough to raise alarm; and now, such a level may still be seen as acceptable.

Federal Reserve officials are still working to explain this change. On Friday, Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, wrote: “Helping the public understand that an economy with zero job growth is still consistent with full employment is not easy.” In the face of another supply shock, this situation is especially fragile. If the Iran war continues, high fuel costs or shortages of goods would squeeze businesses and consumers, and the labor market would lack a buffer to absorb the shock. At the same time, concerns about inflation may weaken the certainty of rate cuts, further limiting the Federal Reserve’s policy room. (Jin10)