CITIC Construction Investment Food & Beverage: La feria de primavera presenta una coexistencia de "calor y frío", atención a las cuatro dimensiones de las medidas de las empresas de bebidas alcohólicas

文｜Yang Ji Zhang Jiazhen

At this Spring Festival Fair, it is precisely in the deep adjustment stage of the baijiu industry, and in this round of adjustment, the industry is also undergoing a profound restructuring in which the baijiu sector is shifting from B端 to C端 and channels are shifting toward consumers. Therefore, this Spring Festival Fair presents a phenomenon in which “cold and hot coexist.” We believe that this stage is not merely about clearing inventory and performance; the measures and strategic directions that liquor companies choose now will affect the industry landscape 3-5 years later. We focus on four major dimensions of initiatives: pricing layout, category innovation & new channel layout, product line layout, and adjustments to the national strategy.

On March 28, 2026, the 114th National Grain, Wine & Tea Commodities Trade Fair (2026 Spring Festival Fair) officially concluded in Chengdu.

This Spring Festival Fair presents a phenomenon in which “cold and hot coexist.” The hotel exhibitions centered on recruitment met with “cold,” while liquor companies’ confidence, the launch of new products, and the transformation toward the C-end are still “hot.”

1）Hotel exhibitions meet with cold: Before the Spring Festival Fair hotel exhibition opened, Guizhou Moutai announced that it would withdraw from the hotel exhibition. In addition, Luzhou Laojiao also stopped large-scale events at hotel exhibitions. Other top baijiu brands such as Wuliangye and Yanghe Co., Ltd. did not release information about carrying out marketing activities during the Fair. Some media reports said that there were more exhibitors than buyers at this Spring Festival Fair. We believe that behind this phenomenon is that the baijiu industry is experiencing a systematic industrial restructuring. Because the channel system construction of top baijiu brands is very mature, the agent teams are stable, and distribution rights are scarce, there is no need to use the hotel exhibition at the Spring Festival Fair for recruitment. Previously, the effectiveness of hotel exhibitions was more oriented toward brand promotion. Under the background of the industry shifting from B-end to C-end, liquor companies are moving from “large-scale recruitment” to “precise, tiered marketing.” Therefore, the hotel exhibitions aimed at the general public are meeting with cold, but non-public, small-scope industry exchanges have not decreased.

2）Liquor companies’ confidence, new product launches, and C-end transformation remain hot: Around and before this Spring Festival Fair, many liquor companies launched new products, including Luzhou Laojiao’s Jiaochi 3 and Jiaochi 5, the Fifth-generation Zhen Shiw, 42° Qinghua Fenjiu Longzun, and the three new spirits from Tangou under “Erjiu Weili,” “Houlang,” and “Guiye.” In addition, Langjiu stated that it will accelerate the layout of 39° Qinghua Langjiu. Also, liquor companies such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shede Spirit Industry, and Jinhui Liquor released investor relations activity record tables, and all stated that they will maintain strategic resolve, ensure benign channel operation and stable price positioning, and convey positive confidence.

Baijiu industry expert Wang Cha cheng pointed out that China’s baijiu industry is currently in an adjustment stage driven by inertia, but in the second half of 2026 there is hope for a marginal improvement. On March 24, 2026, Wang Cha cheng, Chairman of Shengchu Group, said at the “Twenty-Third Alcohol Industry Marketing Trend Summit Forum” that: 1）Although China’s baijiu industry is affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival holiday timing, the data showing that retail sales of tobacco and liquor grew 19.1% in January-February is impressive; however, real movement of products (actual sell-through) is still showing an inertial decline. 2）Moutai’s new policies such as direct sales at 1499 yuan through “i Moutai” have led to a rise in both volume and price in the short term, but supply that is excessive may weaken its price advantage; the long-term effect of its “balancing market-oriented reform with high-end positioning” remains to be seen. 3）Wuliangye expands market share with “trading price for volume,” while Luzhou Laojiao protects channels with “price protection”; these are realistic choices under brand strength. 4）He judges that the industry is still in an inertial adjustment period, mainly due to a high base, Moutai’s siphon effect, and the inertial effect of policies on political and business consumption, but in the second half of 2026 there is hope for marginal improvement—low base, consumption floor-touching, and the clearing out driven by pressure on dominant brands will help leading companies stabilize. 5）During the adjustment period, enterprises need to use pricing to trade for volume at the near top-tier level, focus on core areas, and have producers and merchants jointly bear inventory. They should also shift toward decentralized brand communication such as short videos to adapt to the logic of new consumption.

We believe that this stage is not merely a clearing of inventory and performance; the measures and strategic directions that liquor companies choose now will affect the industry landscape 3-5 years later. Focus on the following four dimensions of liquor company initiatives:

1）Pricing layout: Since last year, the批价 (wholesale quotation) of high-end liquor represented by Moutai and Wuliangye has declined significantly. After this Spring Festival, the普飞批价 has been stable around 1600 yuan, the普五批价 has been stable around 800 yuan. The 1935 quotation has fallen to 600-650 yuan. The批价 of traditional high-end liquors such as Qinghua Lang and Junpin Xijiu has dropped to 630 and 588 yuan, respectively. Moreover, the price levels of low-alcohol 普五 and low-alcohol Guojiao are also in the range of 600-650 yuan, and the批价 of Honghu Lang 10 has fallen to around 225 yuan. Therefore, we believe that downward pressure on the prices of high-end liquors will lead to a re-division of baijiu price segments. Previously, we generally considered that baijiu price segments are divided into mid-low-end (below 100 yuan), mid-high-end (100-300 yuan), near high-end (300-800 yuan), and high-end (above 800 yuan). Currently, baijiu price segments may be changed to mid-low-end (below 100 yuan), mid-high-end (100-200 yuan), near high-end (200-600 yuan), and high-end (above 600 yuan). With changes in pricing layout, enterprises’ volume-price strategies and product layout also need to be adjusted accordingly.

2）Category innovation & new channel layout: ①Review history: during adjustment periods, the baijiu industry often sees category innovation. For example, after the previous adjustment period, categories such as non-standard Moutai and old liquor products emerged, catering to the investment and collection demand for baijiu at that time. Currently, categories such as low-alcohol liquor, loose liquor & light-bottle liquor (the “dajiangpu” style), and health liquor have emerged, catering to current consumers’ demands for palatability and value-for-money, among other factors. Category updates and adjustments are made to meet changes in consumers’ drinking needs and drinking scenarios. Although short-term new categories contribute little to performance, in the medium to long term, large single products may emerge. ②In addition, with the rise of online channels for alcoholic beverages, leading liquor companies are embracing new channels such as instant retail. According to the 2025 Q4 China Alcoholic Beverage Market Prosperity Index (ACI) released by the China Alcoholic Drinks Circulation Association, the prosperity indices of online terminals, supermarket terminals, tobacconist/luxury liquor store terminals, and comprehensive retail terminals are 83.98, 51.14, 41.45, and 42.92, respectively. Behind the high prosperity index of 83.98 for online channels is a fundamental transformation of e-commerce’s role. Female consumers have become the core driving force behind online diversified consumption, and low-alcohol liquor, pre-mixed spirits, and other new liquor drinks are especially popular (prosperity index reaches 53.71).

3）Product line layout: With the re-layout of price segments + changes in political and business consumption demand, liquor companies need to optimize their volume-price strategies and product line layout. For example, tighten the layout in the 100-600 yuan price range; or explore new high-end drinking scenarios to activate products priced above 300 yuan; or layout new liquor-drink categories to meet new demands. Currently, liquor companies’ mainstream strategies fall into two types: ①High-end line products maintain price support, while mid-end and low-end products expand volume (e.g., Luzhou Laojiao, as well as regional players such as Gujing Gongjiu); ②Main products with strong brand strength appropriately reduce prices to increase share (e.g., Feitian Moutai, Baidai Wuliangye, Honghu Lang, and other nationwide brands with strong brand strength).

4）Adjustment of the national strategy: In the current industry adjustment period, liquor companies’ national strategy needs to be further focused, aiming to further improve the efficiency of expense investment.

Demand recovery falls short of expectations. In recent years, due to factors such as the macro environment, economic growth has slowed somewhat, and national income growth has also been affected. In the future, the recovery pace of residents’ income growth in the medium and short term and the improvement pace of consumption strength may be slower than expected;

Baijiu inventory clearance also falls short of expectations. At present, baijiu is in the process of clearing inventory. Liquor enterprises’ performance decline is aimed at improving channel health. If sell-through recovery does not meet expectations, the time when inventory bottoms out will be delayed, and the inflection point of the industry cycle will be extended.

High-end demand continues to be sluggish, and high-end prices will face pressure.

Food safety risks. In recent years, food safety issues have always been a hot topic of concern for consumers. Although companies in the industrial chain continuously improve production quality control levels, because the industrial chain is relatively long and involves more stages and enterprises, risks regarding food quality and safety still exist;

Title of the securities research report: 《Baijiu II: “Cold and Hot” Coexist in the Spring Festival Fair; Pay Attention to Four Key Dimensions of Liquor Companies’ Initiatives》

Date of external release: March 30, 2026

Report publishing institution: China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.

Report analyst(s):

Yang Ji SAC No.: S1440525110001

Zhang Jiazhen SAC No.: S1440526030006

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