El mercado inmobiliario de Guangzhou recibe una "pequeña primavera" y en marzo las transacciones de viviendas de segunda mano en línea superan las 10,000 unidades

Guangzhou’s real estate market welcomes the “early spring rally.” According to the Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediaries Association’s latest disclosure, in March 2026 the number of second-hand residential homes signed online in Guangzhou and the corresponding area were 10,785 units and 1.0533 million square meters, respectively, rising 141.38% and 129.52% month-on-month. The single-month online signing volume once broke through the ten-thousand-unit threshold, reaching the highest level of transactions in nearly a year, becoming a clear signal of a market rebound.

Second-hand homes’ online signing exceeds 24,000 units in the first quarter

From January to March 2026, Guangzhou’s second-hand residential properties recorded 24,209 units signed online and 2.4242 million square meters in signed area. The Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediaries Association analyzes that, with demand accumulated before and after the Spring Festival holiday being released in a concentrated manner, and the combined transmission of favorable factors such as a surge in home purchases driven by education demand and premium-winning deals in the land auction market for high-quality plots, the market has jointly shown a distinct “early spring rally” trend.

All regions see comprehensive month-on-month price increases. Looking at month-on-month changes in the number of units signed online across Guangzhou’s districts, the growth rates in all areas exceed one time. Among them, the increase in Zengcheng District reached 162.14%; the increases in multiple other districts, including Liwan District, Baiyun District, and Panyu District, were also all above 150%.

Tang Zhiyuan, director of the Guangzhou Housing Policy Research Center, said to reporters that after the Spring Festival, the online signing volumes for both first-hand and second-hand residential properties in Guangzhou have grown for several consecutive weeks. The number of visits, the number of showings, the number of reservations, and the contract conversion rate all show an increasing trend week by week, and the entry pace of end-use demand is accelerating.

Transaction structure highlights end-use demand and “upgrade demand” as the main drivers

Judging by the composition of transaction area ranges, the second-hand housing market in Guangzhou has distinct demand structure characteristics. End-use demand and improvement-oriented demand have become the market’s mainstay, and improvement-oriented demand shows a relatively rapid release.

Specifically, the proportions of transactions for units of 60—90㎡, 90—120㎡, and 120—144㎡ increased by 2.29, 0.37, and 0.35 percentage points month-on-month, respectively.

Among them, units of 60—90㎡ account for 33.2%, up 2.29 percentage points month-on-month, and have remained in first place for three consecutive months; it is still the core choice for end-use demand buyers. Units of 90—120㎡ account for 30.72%, up 0.37 percentage points month-on-month, highlighting that the main “upgrade demand” still tends toward mid-to-large apartments for an “all-in-one step.” Meanwhile, transactions of high-end products above 144㎡ fell to 8.78%.

The stable performance of the end-use demand market has become an important fundamental basis for the rebound of Guangzhou’s real estate market. Data monitoring from Centaline (CRY) shows that in 2025, Guangzhou’s commodity housing with total prices of 2 million to 3 million yuan was the main transaction range for end-use demand, with a total of 12,261 units transacted for the year and an average transaction price per unit of 2.46 million yuan. Purchasers with budgets of 2 million to 3 million yuan accounted for 19% of transactions in January to February 2026, which is the same as the proportion for that total-price range for the whole of last year.

A firsthand market “warming up” feeling

Market changes first show up in the real-life impressions of first-tier real estate agency brokers. “Since March, the number of showings for second-hand homes has increased noticeably compared with February, and transaction volumes have also risen significantly. It’s also the peak season for school-district property transactions in March; many parents accelerate their home-buying steps right around the enrollment cut-off points, so the transaction pace for homes with quality school resources has clearly quickened.” Li Tiancheng, who is in charge of the Panyu sector of a certain large platform, told reporters.

Ke (Shell) platform data also confirms the activity level in first-tier markets. Since March, the number of people who have viewed second-hand homes in Guangzhou weekly has stayed above 20,000 person-times. However, currently the transaction cycle for most listings is still 200 to 300 days. In March, Guangzhou’s average transaction price for second-hand homes was 20,900 yuan per square meter; the number of new listings added that month was 17,289 units.

“Now the listing prices set by homeowners are relatively firm, and there won’t be large-scale price cuts anymore. After earlier adjustments, many second-hand homes already offer good value for money.” Li Tiancheng said, “Taking advantage of the ‘early spring rally’ in the housing market, we are also actively facilitating transactions between home viewers and homeowners. Based on past experience, after the concentrated transaction period in March and April, Guangzhou’s housing market may enter a phase of seasonal slowdown in real estate transactions.”

Second-hand homes rebound better than new homes

This round of Guangzhou’s real estate market rebound shows a feature that second-hand homes perform significantly better than new homes. Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told reporters that in March, Guangzhou’s second-hand home transactions exceeded 10,000 units, while new home transactions were about 6,000 units. The volume of second-hand home transactions was about twice that of new homes. Moreover, the characteristics that end-use demand and improvement-oriented demand dominate are very clear.

The share of large-apartment transactions in the second-hand market has increased. Li Yujia believes this sign means that demand for “selling the old to buy the new” has been repaired, which plays a positive role in promoting the transaction circulation of the real estate market.

He analyzed that in April, as earlier low-total-price second-hand transactions have been fully released, some homeowners after selling their second-hand homes will most likely enter the new-home market, or choose to buy large-area, high-quality second-hand homes. The active trading of second-hand homes is expected to further drive demand in both the new-home market and the improvement-oriented second-hand market. At the same time, with signs that market activity is high and prices have stabilized, this will provide important help in stabilizing market expectations and forming market consensus to promote transaction cycles of “selling the old to buy the new” and “selling small to buy big.”

Regarding the outlook for Guangzhou’s real estate market in the second half of the year, Li Yujia believes that the market is still in a price-searching stage. It will take a process to move from price-searching to putting a bottom in place. There are mainly several factors: first, the monthly volume of second-hand homes listed for sale still remains higher than the trading volume, so market supply is still relatively sufficient; second, the phenomenon of homeowners listing with price cuts is still fairly common, and consensus on prices has not yet been fully formed and stabilized; third, in the new-home market, the problem of homogeneous competition within each region is prominent, and the situation of abundant supply has not been alleviated significantly. Among them, the disposal speed of high-quality projects has slowed somewhat, and some projects in the near-suburban and far-suburban areas still mainly rely on promotions to drive sales.

Li Yujia said that the key for Guangzhou’s real estate market performance in the second half of the year lies in whether second-hand homes can continue to maintain activity, thereby effectively driving the transaction cycle of “selling the old to buy the new” and “selling small to buy big,” so that the activity level drives price stabilization to become a market consensus. Meanwhile, each administrative district and each sub-area needs to adjust the new-home pre-sales and construction schedule reasonably based on the pace of listing disposal, to ease the problem of excessive homogeneous supply, avoid malicious competition and price involution among developers, and promote a steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Real estate market
                                                            Guangzhou real estate market