Huatai Securities: El control del estrecho de Hormuz durante más de un mes profundiza la interrupción del suministro en la cadena petroquímica asiática

People’s Finance Network, 2 April: A research note from Huatai Securities said that after more than a month of control measures in the Strait of Hormuz, the interruption of oil supplies has led to a general reduction in load across Asia’s petrochemical industry chain, with costs rising and supply tightening driving product prices to rise broadly. The international diesel and jet fuel price spread surged; ethylene and propylene chains saw price increases obstructed due to insufficient demand, while the aromatics chain showed differentiated performance depending on the resilience of product demand. Because Asian countries face different risks arising from variations in oil strategic reserve levels and alternative energy sources, China’s supply-chain disruption risk is relatively lower. At the same time, shrinking industry capital expenditures and “dual carbon” controls will drive optimization of the supply structure, and this supply cutoff is expected to accelerate the optimization of Asia’s petrochemical industry landscape. As uncertainty in the situation declines subsequently, downstream restocking demand is expected to be released, which could improve profitability in chemical products. In the long run, this incident is expected to accelerate the strategic pace of achieving independent and controllable energy in China; it is expected that the development of oil-demand substitution routes such as modern coal-to-chemicals, green hydrogen, and new energy will speed up, thereby gradually reducing reliance on imported oil and gas.