Morgan Stanley: Los ataques en Oriente Medio provocan un ajuste en el mercado del aluminio, con un aumento del 18% en los precios en lo que va del año

LootboxPhobia · 2026-04-01T22:49:18+00:00

Morgan Stanley informa que los ataques en Oriente Medio han provocado la parada de las plantas de procesamiento en los Emiratos Árabes Unidos y Baréin, reduciendo la capacidad anual en 2.4 millones de toneladas, lo que ha estrechado aún más el mercado del aluminio. Si se confirma la interrupción, la oferta global se verá afectada en un 4%. El precio del aluminio ya ha subido un 18%, aunque los inventarios siguen siendo altos.

LootboxPhobia

2026-04-01 22:49:18

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Investing.com — Morgan Stanley states that the attacks reported to have occurred over the weekend led major Middle East smelters to halt production, further tightening the aluminum market.

Wood Mackenzie said the attacks caused Global Aluminium Ltd’s 1.6 million-ton-per-year smelter in Al Taweelah in the UAE to shut down, and reduced Bahrain Aluminium’s capacity utilization rate at its 1.6 million-ton-per-year smelter from 81% previously to 30%. Morgan Stanley said these disruptions would cut annual capacity by 2.4 million tons, equivalent to 3.2% of global supply. These companies have not yet confirmed the related reports.

Morgan Stanley said that if confirmed, the total disruption in the Middle East would reach 3 million tons of annual capacity or 4% of supply, including the 570,000-ton annual production cut already announced for the region.

Bloomberg reported that Global Aluminium in the UAE is selling several batches of alumina cargoes for shipment from April to June, but the company did not comment.

Morgan Stanley said these unplanned shutdowns may require longer restart and recovery times, meaning this capacity could be removed for the remainder of this year or longer. The warrants inventory at the London Metal Exchange is 270,000 tons, but China’s social inventories and aluminum ingot inventories remain high.

Aluminum prices have risen 18% year-to-date; regional premiums in Japan, Europe, and the United States have increased by more than the London Metal Exchange benchmark price. The copper-to-aluminum price ratio has fallen from 4.3 times in early February to 3.53 times.

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