CITIC Construction Investment: La restricción de la oferta eleva el centro de costos de transporte La reconstrucción de rutas amplía la brecha de oferta

People’s Finance News, April 1st, China Investment Securities Research Report said that the supply side will be tightened for the long term or permanently raise the VLCC freight rate benchmark. The supply-side structure shift or change will rewrite the underlying investment logic of the tanker industry; for many years, capital expenditure has been missing in the old-economy sectors, laying a solid foundation for raising the long-term freight rate benchmark. After the industry cycle peaked in 2008, global shipbuilding capacity was largely cleared; currently, capacity remains only 60% of the 2011 peak. Korean and Japanese shipyards are deeply trapped in labor shortages, and new domestic large tanker capacity can be released no earlier than 2029 to 2030. Among the global VLCC fleet, the proportion of vessels with more than 15 years of age reaches as high as 41%, which is about to enter the scrapping cycle. Meanwhile, new ship orders in 2026–2029 are only enough to cover 22% of replacement demand, making a capacity gap increasingly evident. Coupled with non-standard shadow fleets with over 20 years of vessel age that are difficult to return to compliant markets, sustained capacity shortages may lift the bottom freight rate benchmark for tankers. Geopolitical disruptions are reshaping routes, widening the supply-demand gap. Ongoing turmoil in the Middle East continues to amplify the vulnerability of supply on the oil transport side, while also reshaping the global energy shipping pattern, further widening the industry supply-demand gap. If the Strait of Hormuz passage is obstructed, nearly 10% of the VLCC fleet and 4.5% of Suez-type vessels will be stranded; another 10% of capacity will be on standby and will run aground. Core effective capacity will be significantly lost. A Middle East oil-source disruption cutting off supply forces Asian buyers to switch to procuring in the Atlantic basin; shorter routes shifting to longer routes doubles cargo fleet utilization rates, and most idle capacity is absorbed by long-distance demand. In addition, as Asian countries are completing their energy security shortcomings and accelerating the expansion of strategic crude oil reserves, long-term support will sustain a rise in incremental oil shipping demand.