La valoración de Nvidia alcanza su nivel más bajo en siete años: ¿el mercado está subestimando sistemáticamente al gran ganador de la IA?

NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon: these tech giants, seen as the most direct beneficiaries of the AI wave, are collectively seeing their stock valuations fall to multi-year lows. A rare valuation inversion phenomenon is spreading across the market: the price-to-earnings ratio of the AI chip leader is lower than that of Apple, whose growth rate is less than one-sixth of it.

According to The Information, as of Monday’s close, NVIDIA’s share price was $165.17, corresponding to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 19.9x, the lowest level in seven years. At the same time, Apple’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is as high as 28.7x—whereas NVIDIA’s revenue growth for the current fiscal year is expected to be 71%, and Apple’s only about 12%.

This collective repricing in the market is partly attributed to broad selling triggered by recent geopolitical shocks. However, analysts point out that the overall decline in the broader market is not sufficient to explain the magnitude of the valuation compression in these high-growth tech stocks.

For institutions focused on investing in AI themes, the current valuation structure may either imply systemic mispricing, or indicate that the market’s patience for the AI growth narrative is quietly fading.

NVIDIA: the biggest beneficiary of AI, yet trading on a “common stock” valuation

NVIDIA’s current valuation level has never been this low in its nearly seven-year history. Citing Koyfin data as reported by The Information, the stock’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to 19.9x, below Apple’s 28.7x, despite the two differing vastly in terms of growth.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, NVIDIA’s fiscal-year revenue expected growth through next January is 71%, while Apple’s expected fiscal-year revenue growth through this September is only about 12%.

In terms of monetization capability across the AI industry chain, NVIDIA is the company that has benefited the most so far—directly and at a significant scale; meanwhile, Apple has benefited very little from the AI boom and has not yet formed an obvious contribution to performance.

However, the market’s pricing logic seems not to reflect this reality. Investors have assigned Apple a higher valuation premium, while treating NVIDIA with multiples close to those of traditional manufacturing—such a comparison is one of the most prominent valuation paradoxes within the current tech sector.

Microsoft and Oracle: the ten-year valuation gap suddenly narrows

Also notable is the sharp narrowing of the valuation gap between Microsoft and Oracle.

Two years ago, Microsoft’s forward price-to-earnings ratio was 34x, and Oracle’s was 20x; today, Microsoft has cumulatively fallen about 26% year-to-date, and its forward price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to 20.4x, while Oracle’s is 18.5x—both valuations are, for the first time in nearly a decade, moving closer.

The fundamental logic supporting this repricing lies in the divergence in growth expectations. Analysts expect Microsoft’s year-over-year revenue growth to remain at around 16% over the next several years, with no clear growth acceleration signals. By contrast, Oracle’s revenue growth is expected to jump from 8.4% in fiscal year 2025 to 46.5% in fiscal year 2028.

However, this comparison has an important limitation. Oracle is far smaller than Microsoft, and it is heavily taking on debt to support expansion, resulting in higher financial leverage and an unavoidable risk premium. The Information refers to this structural difference as an “AI opportunity.”

Amazon: the lowest valuation since the financial crisis, first trading at a discount to Walmart

The valuation anomaly is not unique to NVIDIA. According to Koyfin data, Amazon’s current price-to-earnings multiple is the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis; even rarer is that Amazon’s stock price is trading at the first-ever discount relative to Walmart.

At the fundamental level, this phenomenon is also difficult to explain. Amazon’s annual revenue growth is about 12% or more, while Walmart’s is about 5%; moreover, Amazon’s strategic position in cloud computing and AI infrastructure is far from comparable to Walmart’s.

This valuation inversion across different tracks reflects a structural confusion in how the current market prices tech stocks.

The Information comments that if this is a kind of “selective AI caution syndrome,” its reach goes far beyond chip stocks—it has extended to cloud computing and e-commerce platforms, and may create potential pressure on the IPO pricing of AI unicorns that have yet to come, such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

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