Las acciones de semiconductores en EE. UU. caen en toda la línea, Intel cae un 5%, el petróleo crudo sube un 5%, Trump afirma que Irán enfrentará un golpe aún mayor

受中东局势影响，美东时间周二，欧美股市全线飘绿，德国DAX指数、法国CAC40指数跌超3%，英国富时100指数跌逾2%；纳指跌超1%，道指下挫超400点，跌近1%。

Due to the situation in the Middle East, on Tuesday Eastern Time, European and American stock markets were all in the red, with the German DAX index and the French CAC40 index falling more than 3%, and the British FTSE 100 index dropping over 2%; the Nasdaq fell more than 1%, and the Dow Jones dropped over 400 points, nearing a 1% decline.

美股大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌逾2%，英伟达跌超1%，谷歌、苹果小幅下跌；微软涨超1%，亚马逊、奈飞小幅上涨。

Most large-cap technology stocks in the U.S. fell, with Tesla down over 2%, Nvidia down more than 1%, and Google and Apple slightly down; Microsoft rose over 1%, while Amazon and Netflix saw slight increases.

芯片股表现疲软，半导体产业链全线下挫，费城半导体指数跌超4.5%，闪迪跌近9%，美光科技跌近8%，科天半导体跌逾6%，英特尔跌超5%，阿斯麦跌逾4%，台积电跌超4%。

Chip stocks performed poorly, with the entire semiconductor supply chain declining, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 4.5%, SanDisk down nearly 9%, Micron Technology down nearly 8%, Skyworks Solutions down over 6%, Intel down over 5%, ASML down over 4%, and TSMC down over 4%.

中概股普遍下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌超3%。金山云、晶科能源跌超8%，小鹏汽车、小马智行跌超6%，阿里巴巴、爱奇艺跌近5%；携程网、网易小幅上涨。

Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping more than 3%. Kingsoft Cloud and JinkoSolar fell over 8%, Xiaopeng Motors and Pony.ai fell over 6%, Alibaba and iQIYI fell nearly 5%; Trip.com and NetEase saw slight increases.

美股行业ETF中，半导体ETF收跌3.77%，全球科技股指数ETF、生物科技指数ETF至多跌2.39%，科技行业ETF跌1.46%。

Among U.S. sector ETFs, the semiconductor ETF closed down 3.77%, the global technology stock index ETF and the biotechnology index ETF fell up to 2.39%, and the technology sector ETF fell 1.46%.

大宗商品剧烈波动，国际贵金属全线大跌。现货黄金日内大跌233美元，跌幅超4%，险守5000美元关口；现货白银重挫逾8%，报82美元/盎司；现货铂金、钯金分别大跌超9%、7%。今日（3月4日）开盘，金银集体上涨，现货黄金向上触及5100美元。

Commodity prices experienced violent fluctuations, with international precious metals all falling sharply. Spot gold fell $233 during the day, a drop of over 4%, barely holding above the $5000 mark; spot silver plummeted over 8%, reporting at $82/ounce; spot platinum and palladium dropped over 9% and 7% respectively. Today (March 4), gold and silver opened higher, with spot gold touching $5100.

国际油价集体大涨，WTI原油大涨5%，逼近75美元/桶，布油站上82美元/桶，日内涨幅5.6%。

International oil prices rose sharply, with WTI crude oil up 5%, approaching $75/barrel, and Brent oil standing above $82/barrel, with a daily increase of 5.6%.

此外，美元指数突破99，刷新1月20日以来新高，日内涨0.52%报99.06。

In addition, the U.S. dollar index broke above 99, reaching a new high since January 20, with a daily increase of 0.52% to 99.06.

对于美股前景，高盛交易团队日前表示，市场正处在“先震荡回撤，再尝试有效突破（例如标普500指数7000点）”的阶段。决定后市的关键并非冲突事件本身，而在于油价冲击的持续性、霍尔木兹海峡运输会否长期中断，以及由此引发的通胀预期和降息路径会否进一步恶化。

Regarding the outlook for U.S. stocks, Goldman Sachs’ trading team recently stated that the market is in a phase of “first consolidating and retracting, then attempting effective breakthroughs (such as the S&P 500 index reaching 7000 points).” The key to future market direction is not the conflict events themselves, but the sustainability of oil price shocks, whether transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will be interrupted long-term, and whether the resulting inflation expectations and interest rate paths will further deteriorate.

中东局势方面，据央视新闻报道，当地时间3月3日，美国总统特朗普否认被以色列“拖入战争”，称“如果有的话，可能是我推动了以色列的手”。目前伊朗“几乎所有军事能力都已被摧毁”，接下来将“承受更大打击”。

Regarding the situation in the Middle East, according to CCTV news, on March 3 local time, U.S. President Trump denied being “dragged into war” by Israel, stating, “If anything, I may have pushed Israel’s hand.” Currently, Iran has “almost all military capabilities destroyed” and will “suffer greater blows” next.

据财联社报道，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，伊朗冲突这加剧了美国经济前景的不确定性，使得央行利率政策的走向更加难以预判。

According to Caixin News, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari stated that the conflict in Iran has exacerbated the uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, making the direction of central bank interest rate policy even more difficult to predict.

据21世纪经济报道，源达信息证券研究所所长吴起涤表示，短期内，抗通胀的优先级可能会被动提升，导致美联储推迟降息。美联储可能会考虑地缘政治不确定性，并选择“更高更久”的利率政策来观察事态发展。

According to the 21st Century Business Herald, Wu Qidi, director of the Yuanda Information Securities Research Institute, stated that in the short term, the priority of combating inflation may be passively elevated, leading the Fed to delay interest rate cuts. The Fed may consider geopolitical uncertainties and choose a “higher for longer” interest rate policy to observe the developments.

交易员目前预计美联储最早要到9月才会降息，时间晚于此前预期。

Traders currently expect that the Fed will not cut interest rates until at least September, which is later than previously anticipated.