Economistas advierten: El conflicto en Oriente Medio impacta rápidamente en la cadena de suministro de fertilizantes, poniendo en riesgo el aumento de los precios mundiales de los alimentos

经济学家最新警告称，本轮美以伊冲突已在短时间内引发近年来全球大宗商品流动最迅速、最严重的冲击之一，导致天然气价格飙升、化肥供应趋紧，全球农民正承受越来越大的压力。

Economists warn that the latest round of conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has triggered one of the fastest and most severe shocks to global commodity flows in recent years, leading to soaring natural gas prices and tightening fertilizer supplies, putting increasing pressure on farmers worldwide.

而其中化肥短缺正在进一步威胁发展中国家农民的生计，这些地区本已受到气温上升和气候异常的冲击，并可能导致全球食品价格上涨。

The shortage of fertilizers is further threatening the livelihoods of farmers in developing countries, which are already impacted by rising temperatures and climatic anomalies, potentially leading to an increase in global food prices.

联合国世界粮食计划署副执行主任卡尔·斯考表示，北半球最贫困的农民严重依赖来自海湾地区的化肥进口，而当前短缺恰逢播种季开始。

Carl Skau, Deputy Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Programme, stated that the poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere heavily rely on fertilizer imports from the Gulf region, and the current shortage coincides with the start of the planting season.

他指出：“在最坏情况下，这意味着下一季产量下降甚至作物歉收；在最好情况下，更高的投入成本也将体现在明年的食品价格中。”

He pointed out, “In the worst case, this means a decline in next season’s yields or even crop failures; in the best case, higher input costs will also be reflected in next year’s food prices.”

联合国粮农组织首席经济学家马克西莫·托雷罗指出，霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源与化肥运输关键通道，日均承运约2000万桶石油，约占全球原油运输量的35%；同时承载大量液化天然气及化肥贸易运输，海湾地区的硫磺更是磷肥生产重要原料。航道受阻冲击已快速传导至全球粮食与农业体系。

Maximo Torero, Chief Economist of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is a key transit route for global energy and fertilizer transport, handling about 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for approximately 35% of global crude oil shipments; it also carries a significant volume of liquefied natural gas and fertilizer trade, with sulfur from the Gulf region being an important raw material for phosphate production. Disruption of these shipping routes has quickly transmitted shocks to global food and agricultural systems.

托雷罗表示，当前航运风险推高农业投入成本：海湾海域战时保险费率由0.25%最高涨至10%，每7天重新核定一次；尿素价格大幅攀升，多国农民面临化肥、燃料双重涨价压力。

Torero stated that current shipping risks are driving up agricultural input costs: wartime insurance rates in the Gulf region have risen from 0.25% to a maximum of 10%, with reassessments every seven days; urea prices have surged, putting farmers in many countries under dual pressure from rising fertilizer and fuel costs.

关键化肥供应中断

Critical fertilizer supply disruptions

当前，氮肥和磷肥两大关键化肥供应正面临直接威胁。其中，氮肥供应(包括尿素)受到的冲击最为严重。尿素是全球交易量最大的化肥品种，能够促进作物生长、提高产量。

Currently, the supply of two key fertilizers, nitrogen and phosphate, is facing direct threats. Among these, the supply of nitrogen fertilizers (including urea) has been hit the hardest. Urea is the most traded fertilizer globally, promoting crop growth and increasing yields.

伦敦大宗商品咨询机构CRU Group分析师克里斯·劳森表示，此次冲突已影响约30%的全球尿素贸易。

Chris Lawson, an analyst at London-based commodity consultancy CRU Group, stated that this conflict has affected approximately 30% of global urea trade.

一些国家已出现严重短缺。德克萨斯大学食品系统经济学家拉杰·帕特尔指出，例如埃塞俄比亚超过90%的氮肥依赖经吉布提从海湾地区进口，而这一供应链在战争爆发前就已紧张。“现在正是播种季，但化肥却没有到位。”

Severe shortages have emerged in some countries. Raj Patel, a food systems economist at the University of Texas, pointed out that, for example, Ethiopia relies on imports from the Gulf region via Djibouti for over 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer, and this supply chain was already strained before the war broke out. “It’s planting season now, but the fertilizers have not arrived.”

与此同时，支持作物根系发育的磷肥供应也面临压力。沙特生产全球约五分之一的磷肥；该地区还出口全球超过40%的硫磺，这是石油天然气炼制过程中的关键原料和副产品。

At the same time, the supply of phosphate fertilizers, which support root development in crops, is also under pressure. Saudi Arabia produces about one-fifth of the world’s phosphate fertilizers; the region also exports over 40% of the world’s sulfur, a key raw material and byproduct in oil and gas refining.

Argus咨询公司分析师欧文·古奇表示，即使战争结束，海湾地区生产商在恢复通过海峡运输前仍需获得明确的安全保障，且运输保险成本几乎肯定会上升。

Owen Guck, an analyst at Argus Consulting, stated that even if the war ends, Gulf producers will still need clear security assurances before resuming transportation through the strait, and transportation insurance costs will almost certainly rise.

在印度，政府已优先保障国内尿素供应，并为化肥企业提供约70%的天然气需求，但部分工厂仍在低产能运行，导致产量下降。

In India, the government has prioritized domestic urea supply and provided about 70% of the natural gas requirements for fertilizer companies, but some factories are still operating at low capacity, leading to a decline in production.

全球化肥巨头挪威国际化肥公司Yara International的汉娜·奥普萨尔-本·阿马尔表示：“全球粮食体系本就脆弱，其正常运转依赖稳定的化肥供应链，以确保农民能够生产出世界所需的粮食。”

Hanna Opsahl-Ben Amar from global fertilizer giant Yara International stated, “The global food system is already fragile, and its normal operation relies on a stable fertilizer supply chain to ensure that farmers can produce the food the world needs.”

关键时间窗口遭遇冲击

Critical time window under shock

化肥通常在播种前或播种时施用。一旦供应延误，即使后期补充，也会错过作物早期关键生长阶段，从而影响产量。

Fertilizers are typically applied before or during planting. Once supply is delayed, even if later supplemented, the critical early growth stages of the crops may be missed, affecting yields.

这种影响已经在美国和欧洲显现，当地主要播种季正在进行中，并预计将在未来几个月波及亚洲大部分地区的首轮种植季。

This impact is already being seen in the U.S. and Europe, where the main planting season is underway, and it is expected to affect the first planting season in much of Asia in the coming months.

分析师表示，在周二美国政府报告(年度种植意向报告)发布前，中东战争已打乱美国农民的种植计划，导致玉米种植面积减少，春小麦种植量创下1970年以来最低水平。

Analysts stated that before the U.S. government report (annual planting intentions report) was released on Tuesday, the Middle East war had disrupted American farmers’ planting plans, leading to a reduction in corn acreage and spring wheat planting hitting the lowest level since 1970.

与此同时，大豆播种面积预计大幅跃升，因为一些种植者将土地从需要更昂贵化肥的玉米和小麦转种大豆。

At the same time, soybean planting acreage is expected to surge, as some growers are shifting land from corn and wheat, which require more expensive fertilizers, to soybeans.

尽管美国政府补贴接近创纪录水平，但美国农业净收入预计今年仍将下滑，标志着种植户连续第四年面临利润空间紧缩、生产成本高企和农产品价格低迷的困境。

Despite U.S. government subsidies nearing record levels, U.S. agricultural net income is expected to decline this year, marking the fourth consecutive year that growers face shrinking profit margins, high production costs, and weak agricultural prices.

国际粮食政策研究所专家约瑟夫·格劳伯指出，目前化肥价格虽低于俄乌冲突后的峰值，但当时粮价较高，农民还能消化成本；而如今粮价较低、利润空间收窄，农民可能被迫改种对化肥依赖较低的作物(如美国的大豆)，或减少施肥，从而降低产量。而产量下降最终将推高消费者食品价格。

Joseph Glauber, an expert at the International Food Policy Research Institute, pointed out that while fertilizer prices are currently below the peak following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, grain prices were high at that time, allowing farmers to absorb costs; whereas now, with lower grain prices and narrowed profit margins, farmers may be forced to switch to crops that are less dependent on fertilizers (like soybeans in the U.S.) or reduce fertilization, thereby lowering yields. Ultimately, this decline in yields will push up consumer food prices.

（文章来源：财联社）

(Source: Financial Association)