Los compradores de autos podrían abandonar los SUV debido a los altos precios del petróleo. Morgan Stanley ha incluido a General Motors como la acción preferida en el sector automotriz.

对于购车者而言，2025年是机遇与危机并存的一年——关税可能推高车价的前景在上半年将购车人数推至创纪录水平。在经销商加大优惠力度以刺激销量的助力下，福特、通用汽车等原设备制造商凭借上半年的强劲表现，业绩攀至历史巅峰。

But according to Morgan Stanley’s latest report, this year’s economic anxiety is driven by oil prices, not tariffs, and a long-term price surge could have severe consequences for the auto industry.

报告指出，如果油价持续高企超过六个月，消费者可能会推迟购车计划，转而选择更便宜的车型，而非多年来支撑车企利润率的高价SUV。

According to Good Car Bad Car data, SUVs accounted for 52% of new car sales in 2025, up from 46% in 2021 and 38% in 2016. Full-size SUVs have doubled their market share since 2016, reaching 3.5%.

SUV车型的日益普及对汽车制造商而言无疑是重大利好。据《周刊》报道，由于大型车辆价格更高，但许多零部件与小型车通用，SUV和卡车的利润率平均比小型车高出10%至20%。

Meanwhile, the production costs of electric vehicles are rising while their profit margins are declining, prompting the three major U.S. automakers to shift capacity from electric vehicles to SUVs.

但摩根士丹利的分析师认为，如果高油价持续较长时间，这一策略可能难以维系。

If oil prices remain high, car buyers are expected to give up SUVs

The Iran war has entered its fourth week, and the Iranian leadership has just rejected President Trump’s latest ceasefire proposal, with no end in sight for the conflict.

伊朗已关闭了承载全球约20%石油运输的霍尔木兹海峡，如今又威胁关闭连接红海与亚丁湾、承担全球11%石油运输的曼德海峡。

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco pointed out in a recent report: “The Middle East conflict is exacerbating the risks to the global auto supply chain. The tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have intensified energy price fluctuations and raised concerns about disruptions in the transport of upstream raw materials like oil and aluminum.”

该机构表示，在油价高企的背景下，正持续关注整车厂及供应商面临的压力，以及由此对定价和需求带来的连锁反应。

Morgan Stanley analyzes that assuming an average vehicle fuel efficiency of 27 miles per gallon and an annual mileage of 12,000 miles, every $1 increase in gasoline prices raises the annual fuel cost for gasoline vehicles by $450.

当汽油价格升至每加仑4美元时，电动汽车的性价比优势便凸显出来。届时，电动汽车的年均燃料成本将比内燃机汽车低60%，因此有意购买新车的消费者可能会选择电动汽车，而非高油耗的SUV。

For automakers betting heavily on SUVs, shifting focus to lower-margin electric vehicles could disrupt their carefully laid strategies. Therefore, Morgan Stanley has reassessed its judgment on the auto industry as it faces the choices brought on by high oil prices.

As oil prices rise, Morgan Stanley lists General Motors as the top pick in the automotive sector

Morgan Stanley expects that if the conflict continues, market volatility will increase. If this is the case, the firm has listed the reliable General Motors as the top pick in the sector and maintains an “overweight” rating.

摩根士丹利表示，通用汽车“在应对供应链中断和经营环境波动方面展现出卓越的管理能力和业绩表现。通用汽车仍是汽车板块的核心推荐标的，尤其是在近期股价回调后，目前股价仅对应我们2026年每股收益预期的5.5倍，有望上涨30%达到我们设定的100美元目标价。”

General Motors’ stock closed at $76.61 on Wednesday.

与此同时，过去一个月已下跌20%的福特汽车周三再跌1.5%，收于11.67美元。摩根士丹利对该股给出“持股观望”评级。

The firm stated: “Ford’s recent stock price adjustment also provides a 20% upside to our $14 target price. However, we caution investors that an unfavorable shift in vehicle structure (i.e., consumers abandoning pickups) could have negative impacts.”

If high oil prices persist, SUV sales still have a “lifeline”

Insurance companies adjust premiums based on vehicle type, with safer vehicles typically enjoying lower insurance rates.

CarInsurance.com analysts pointed out that “vehicles that are structurally solid, safe and reliable, and have low repair costs usually have lower insurance premiums than sports cars, imports, or models with expensive repair histories.” The site ranked the most affordable models and found that SUVs have surpassed sedans in affordability.

事实上，由于结构设计差异和理赔数据，目前SUV的保险费用平均比同级别轿车低10%至15%。在CarInsurance.com列出的保险费用最低的20款车型中，有16款是SUV。

Cross-border insurance company Zach Lazzari stated: “Repair and replacement costs are significant factors in determining insurance rates. For instance, some vehicles have extremely high repair costs after common minor accidents: some may require complete panel replacements, while others can be fixed with simple dent repair tools and a bit of new paint.”

保险费用最低的五款SUV平均半年保费低于1172美元，而最便宜的轿车（不出所料是斯巴鲁力狮）平均半年保费为1265美元。