La guerra en Irán detiene la compra de oro por parte del banco central, tras la caída del oro, podría enfrentar una ajuste aún más severo

汇通财经APP讯——央行需求一直是2022年底以来黄金价格创下历史性牛市的关键推动力量。然而，这一交易可能至少在可预见的未来走向终结，因为伊朗战争迫使各国决策者将能源安全和经济稳定置于储备多元化之上。

Central bank demand has been a key driver behind the historic bull market in gold prices since the end of 2022. However, this trade may be coming to an end in the foreseeable future, as the war in Iran forces policymakers to prioritize energy security and economic stability over reserve diversification.

这一优先顺序的转变，正发生在黄金市场极为脆弱的时刻。黄金价格刚刚经历1980年代以来最剧烈的单周下跌，此前美国银行财富管理高级投资策略师罗布·霍沃思（Rob Haworth）将其描述为今年早些时候的投机性“吹顶”行情。

This shift in priority is happening at a time when the gold market is extremely fragile. Gold prices have just experienced the most severe weekly drop since the 1980s, which U.S. Bank Wealth Management’s senior investment strategist Rob Haworth described as a speculative “top” earlier this year.

在1月底触及历史高点后，尽管地缘政治紧张局势不断升级，黄金却始终难以重拾升势，这种表现与黄金作为传统避险资产的角色形成罕见的背离。

After reaching historical highs at the end of January, gold has struggled to regain upward momentum despite escalating geopolitical tensions, marking a rare divergence from gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset.

罗布·霍沃思（Rob Haworth）认为，黄金这种反常表现反映了市场动态的根本转变。名义利率和实际收益率的上升正在削弱黄金的吸引力，而原本预期的避险资金并未流向黄金或国债等传统对冲工具，而是流向了更具流动性的美元。

Rob Haworth believes that gold’s unusual performance reflects a fundamental shift in market dynamics. Rising nominal and real interest rates are diminishing gold’s appeal, and the expected safe-haven funds have not flowed into traditional hedging tools like gold or government bonds, but rather into the more liquid U.S. dollar.

甚至连政府债券也未能吸引资金，收益率升至数月高位，这凸显出通胀和供应冲击正主导投资者的思维。罗布·霍沃思（Rob Haworth）指出，即使是通胀保护债券（TIPS）在当前环境下也并非避险资产。

Even government bonds have failed to attract funds, with yields rising to multi-month highs, highlighting that inflation and supply shocks are dominating investor thinking. Rob Haworth noted that even Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are not considered safe-haven assets in the current environment.

他说：“它们同样对久期敏感，而实际收益率正在上升，因此也受到了伤害。”

He said, “They are also sensitive to duration, and as real yields rise, they have also been hurt.”

与此同时，黄金市场的投机性仓位已成为越来越大的阻力。罗布·霍沃思（Rob Haworth）表示，4500美元这一心理关口至关重要，如果投资者因整体投资组合承压而被迫平仓，黄金价格可能面临进一步下行压力。

Meanwhile, speculative positions in the gold market have become an increasingly significant hurdle. Rob Haworth stated that the $4,500 psychological level is crucial, and if investors are forced to liquidate positions due to overall portfolio pressures, gold prices may face further downward pressure.

他指出：“投机者现在面临艰难抉择。我认为许多人在2月份试图熬过波动，静观其变，但现在大量资金已经深度亏损，情况可能还会进一步恶化。”

He pointed out, “Speculators are now facing tough choices. I think many tried to ride out the volatility in February and wait for changes, but now a large amount of capital is deeply in the red, and the situation may worsen further.”

不仅投机者处于亏损状态，罗布·霍沃思（Rob Haworth）还强调，他们无法再指望央行出手提供关键支撑。

Not only are speculators in a losing position, but Rob Haworth also emphasized that they can no longer count on central banks to provide crucial support.

他解释说，此前推动黄金大涨的许多央行本身也是能源净进口国。随着油价大幅飙升，液化天然气和化肥成本急剧上升，这些国家的财政资源正在被重新分配，用于保障基本能源和物资供应。

He explained that many of the central banks that previously drove gold prices up are themselves net energy importers. As oil prices have surged, the costs of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers have soared, and these countries’ financial resources are being reallocated to ensure basic energy and material supplies.

罗布·霍沃思（Rob Haworth）认为，那些原本可能用于增持黄金储备的资金，现在正被用于“维持生计”，用于购买能源、食品以及关键基础设施所需。这种资金再分配，很好地解释了为什么在地缘政治风险急剧升级的情况下，黄金却未能做出正面反应。

Rob Haworth believes that funds that could have been used to increase gold reserves are now being used to “make ends meet,” to purchase energy, food, and essential infrastructure. This reallocation of funds explains why gold has failed to respond positively amid sharply escalating geopolitical risks.

他表示，在当前环境下，传统的避险需求已被对流动性的争夺所取代。各国和企业现在优先考虑的是获取美元以购买能源和维持供应链，而不是积累黄金。

He stated that in the current environment, traditional safe-haven demand has been replaced by a scramble for liquidity. Countries and companies are now prioritizing acquiring U.S. dollars to purchase energy and maintain supply chains, rather than accumulating gold.

罗布·霍沃思（Rob Haworth）说：“这种情况持续的时间越长，情况就会越糟糕。它推高了油价，伤害了全球经济，但却没有帮助到黄金。”这也凸显出投资者目前面临的一个关键悖论。

Rob Haworth said, “The longer this situation persists, the worse it will become. It drives up oil prices, hurts the global economy, but does not help gold.” This also highlights a key paradox that investors face at present.

展望未来，冲突的持续时间，特别是能源流动受到的长期干扰将成为决定性因素。罗布·霍沃思（Rob Haworth）认为，特朗普政府提出的四至六周时间窗口是一个关键转折点。

Looking ahead, the duration of the conflict, particularly the long-term disruption of energy flows, will be a decisive factor. Rob Haworth believes that the four to six-week time window proposed by the Trump administration is a key turning point.

他表示，如果高油价持续到4月中旬，企业与消费者将开始做出更长期的调整，包括将更高的成本转嫁到终端市场，这反过来可能加剧通胀压力，并进一步收紧金融条件。

He stated that if high oil prices persist until mid-April, businesses and consumers will begin to make more long-term adjustments, including passing higher costs onto end markets, which could in turn exacerbate inflationary pressures and further tighten financial conditions.

对于黄金而言，这种情景构成了极为不利的背景。由供应约束引发的高通胀往往会推高债券收益率，而历史上这对无收益资产构成沉重压力。与此同时，传统防御性资产未能提供有效保护，投资者可选择的对冲工具进一步减少。

For gold, this scenario constitutes an extremely unfavorable backdrop. High inflation driven by supply constraints often pushes bond yields higher, which historically puts heavy pressure on non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, traditional defensive assets have failed to provide effective protection, further reducing the hedging tools available to investors.

在这种环境下，罗布·霍沃思（Rob Haworth）表示，目前没有证据显示市场正在发生结构性远离美元或美国国债的转变，而这种转变原本可能迅速重振黄金的吸引力。

In this environment, Rob Haworth stated that there is currently no evidence of a structural shift away from the dollar or U.S. Treasuries in the market, a shift that could have quickly revitalized gold’s appeal.

他补充说，黄金价格预计将经历一段盘整期，以消化过剩的投机仓位并等待宏观条件稳定。

He added that gold prices are expected to undergo a consolidation period to digest the excess speculative positions and wait for macro conditions to stabilize.

他认为，央行购金行为最终可能会恢复，但前提是地缘政治扰动缓和且能源市场恢复正常。在此之前，黄金投资者不得不面对一个陌生的市场环境。在这个环境中，战争、通胀和供应冲击并未推动对黄金的避险需求，反而正在将资金从黄金身上转移走。罗布·霍沃思（Rob Haworth）最后表示：“正在发生一场重置。央行关注的不再是一个具体的价格水平，而是时间周期。它们并非对价格敏感，也不是需要每日盯市的对冲基金。但眼下，由于社会的基本需求，它们必须优先配置那些更为重要且更为稀缺的资产。”总体而言，伊朗战争正在重塑全球资金流向，央行购金这一过去几年黄金最大的支撑力量正面临阶段性退潮，黄金市场短期内将承受较大压力。

He believes that central bank purchasing of gold may eventually resume, but only if geopolitical disturbances ease and energy markets return to normal. Until then, gold investors must face an unfamiliar market environment. In this environment, war, inflation, and supply shocks have not driven safe-haven demand for gold but rather are diverting funds away from it. Rob Haworth concluded, “A reset is happening. Central banks are no longer focused on a specific price level but on time cycles. They are not price-sensitive and are not hedge funds that need to monitor the market daily. But right now, due to basic societal needs, they must prioritize allocating resources to those assets that are more important and scarcer.” Overall, the war in Iran is reshaping global capital flows, and the central bank’s gold purchases, which have been the biggest support for gold in recent years, are facing a seasonal retreat, placing significant pressure on the gold market in the short term.

投资者需密切关注冲突持续时间、油价走势以及各国实际资金分配的变化，以判断黄金何时能重获支撑。

Investors need to closely monitor the duration of the conflict, oil price trends, and changes in actual capital allocation by countries to determine when gold might regain support.

现货黄金日线图 来源：易汇通北京时间3月24日12：10 现货黄金 报 4351.90 美元/盎司

Spot gold daily chart Source: Easy Forex March 24, 12:10 PM Beijing time Spot gold quoted at $4,351.90 per ounce

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责任编辑：郭建

Editor: Guo Jian