ShouChuang Futuros: La tendencia del precio del aluminio es estable, la alúmina retrocede las ganancias

Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue, and the impact on aluminum is limited; aluminum prices reflect this mildly. Today’s aluminum prices are primarily characterized by fluctuations and consolidation, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the short term. However, as aluminum prices have dropped significantly, downstream replenishment has noticeably increased. On March 23, domestic aluminum ingot inventory was 1.356 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the 19th, marking a rare drop in inventory. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is acceptable, and there is a demand for replenishment after the price drop, providing some support for aluminum prices. In terms of alumina, although it briefly surpassed 3,100 yuan, it faced pressure from above and quickly fell back to around 3,000 yuan last night, with a decline of over 2%. Today, alumina is operating above 3,000 yuan, with poor upward momentum; the bullish impact may fade and return to fundamentals. Despite many enterprises still using previously low-priced ore, a significant number have now chosen imported ore, and shipping costs will inevitably add to expenses. The market’s reluctance to sell has increased, with spot prices continuing to rise slightly, but aluminum plants are considering the overall market surplus and are only purchasing at low prices, resulting in average market transaction conditions. The supply-demand game is evident, and alumina is expected to continue operating between 3,000 and 3,100 yuan. (CITIC Futures)