El cambio en el patrón de oferta y demanda estabiliza y hace que los precios del carbonato de litio se recuperen

Reporter of Securities Daily Zhang Wenxiang Trainee Reporter Zhan Jianyu

Currently, the price of lithium carbonate is showing a stabilizing and rising trend. Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network published data showing that on March 24, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 147,500 yuan/ton and 144,500 yuan/ton, respectively, both increasing by 1,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day.

Looking at the longer time frame, Wind Information data shows that the price of lithium carbonate began to fluctuate downward from the beginning of 2025, reaching a low of 59,900 yuan/ton on June 24 of that year. In the second half of last year, prices began to rise, and as of now, prices have increased by more than 140% compared to the low point in June 2025.

Industry insiders believe that the recent rise in lithium carbonate prices is the result of a combination of factors such as disturbances at the mining end, changes in expectations, and supply-demand dynamics. In terms of supply, the pace of inventory depletion of domestic lithium carbonate has slowed, with inventories at all levels being low. The export ban from Zimbabwe and other factors have also disturbed the supply of lithium carbonate; in terms of demand, the overseas market is driven by high oil prices and increased computing power demand, leading to an explosion in energy storage demand, which in turn drives up lithium carbonate prices.

“The fundamental reversal of the supply-demand pattern is the core driving force behind the price rebound. On the demand side, global energy storage market shipments are expected to reach 820 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 57.8%, driving lithium carbonate prices away from the bottom,” said Li Pan, a lithium industry analyst at Shanghai Steel Union New Energy Division, in an interview with Securities Daily. He stated that the inflection point for the lithium carbonate industry has emerged, with prices expected to oscillate at high levels in 2026, with the price center likely moving up to 120,000 yuan/ton to 180,000 yuan/ton, making it difficult to return to the low prices of mid-2025.

Mo Ke, founder of True Lithium Research, told Securities Daily that the total demand for lithium carbonate is still expected to gradually grow in the future. In the first half of this year, lithium carbonate prices are expected to show an overall upward trend, potentially breaking through 200,000 yuan/ton; however, the trend in the second half may first fluctuate widely and then generally decline, with the industry inflection point possibly appearing in the second half of this year.

At the same time, the long-term trend of lithium carbonate prices is also of great concern. A research report released by Dongwu Securities Co., Ltd. states that global lithium battery demand is expected to grow by 30% in 2026 and maintain a growth of 21% in 2027; combined with the five-year cyclical trend of lithium carbonate prices, the supply-demand pattern will support the price increase of lithium carbonate in the next two years. In addition, some industry insiders have stated that the next 10 to 15 years will be a super boom cycle for lithium carbonate demand.

“The new industry cycle has already begun, and the global energy transition is an irreversible long-term trend. The industry has entered an ‘cost curve pricing’ era, where integrated enterprises with high-quality salt lakes and high-grade lithium ore resources will enjoy stable and generous profits; while high-cost marginal capacity can only survive at high prices. Attention needs to be paid to the potential replacement of energy storage demand by large-scale commercial applications of sodium batteries, as well as the impact of geopolitical risks on resource supply,” Li Pan stated.