Great Wall Securities: Los arándanos nacionales se han convertido en un representante de la actualización del consumo de frutas. Seguimos siendo optimistas respecto al crecimiento de la demanda del sector y a la mejora en la estructura competitiva.

长城证券发布研报称，据Rabobank分析，
despite China has become the world’s largest blueberry producer,
but per capita consumption is less than 0.5kg,
compared to the United States’ per capita consumption of 1.3kg,
there is a broad growth space in the future.
Domestic blueberries, with their unique sweet and crispy taste
and off-season supply, have frequently gained popularity in recent years,
becoming a representative of fruit consumption upgrading.
From an operational perspective,
the full-chain management requirements
spanning breeding, planting, cold chain, and channel construction,
result in a natural entry barrier for the industry.
Although blueberry prices exhibit seasonal fluctuations,
the industry’s entry barrier is high,
and industry expansion is relatively orderly,
with a broad outlook for the blueberry consumption market.

长城证券主要观点如下：

Domestic blueberry demand space is large,
and demand is strong before and after the Spring Festival.

With the improvement of national health awareness and living standards,
blueberries are gradually becoming the new darling of the market
due to their unique taste and rich nutritional value.
According to Rabobank analysis,
despite China has become the world’s largest blueberry producer,
but per capita consumption is less than 0.5kg,
compared to the United States’ per capita consumption of 1.3kg,
there is a broad growth space in the future.
Domestic blueberries, with their unique sweet and crispy taste
and off-season supply, have frequently gained popularity in recent years,
becoming a representative of fruit consumption upgrading.

According to the “2024 China Blueberry Industry Development Report”,
driven by planting rhythm,
blueberry prices exhibit certain seasonal fluctuations.
From November each year to April of the following year,
is the上市期 of Yunnan blueberries,
with prices at a relatively high level,
with February having the highest prices.
From May to July, fruits from other producing areas are上市,
with prices steadily declining.
From August to October,
the summer fruit gradually comes to an end,
with prices stabilizing and rebounding.

Blueberry industry land acquisition barriers are high,
and high-quality seedlings are scarce.

The cultivation of high-quality blueberries requires
high standards for climate, altitude, and soil conditions.
Yunnan, with its unique low-latitude plateau climate,
has become a global important production area,
but high-quality base resources suitable for large-scale,
facilitated cultivation have become increasingly tight
due to recent development.
Taking the industry leader Noposion as an example,
its single planting base area is usually over 300 mu.

In terms of seedlings,
world-leading blueberry varieties,
such as high-quality evergreen varieties,
are mostly owned by international berry production giants
(such as Driscoll’s, Costa, etc.),
and implement patented and authorized management.
The cycle from breeding, introduction to production of new varieties
is relatively long, and companies lacking core seedling resources
find it difficult to directly enter the mid-to-high-end market,
with the industry’s expansion rhythm being relatively orderly.

The initial investment in blueberry planting is high,
and the precision of full-chain management is high.

The capital expenditure of blueberry planting,
represented by substrate cultivation mode,
is significantly higher than that of conventional crops,
with an average fixed construction cost per mu
usually between 70,000 and 100,000 RMB,
including the construction costs of high-standard greenhouse,
precision drip irrigation system, and water and fertilizer integrated central control system,
as well as the costs of high-quality variety patent authorization
and tissue culture seedling procurement.
In addition, in order to ensure berry quality,
companies also need to pay for harvesting personnel expenses
and invest in the construction of cold chain storage and transportation facilities.

From an operational perspective,
blueberry growth is limited by biological cycles,
and it takes several years from construction to stable production,
and substrate cultivation requires extremely detailed
management of water and fertilizer ratio,
pest control monitoring, and labor organization during the harvesting period.
The full-chain management requirements
spanning breeding, planting, cold chain, and channel construction,
result in a natural entry barrier for the industry.

Continuously optimistic about the growth of blueberry industry demand
and the optimization of competitive landscape.

Although blueberry prices exhibit seasonal fluctuations,
the industry’s entry barrier is high,
and industry expansion is relatively orderly,
with a broad outlook for the blueberry consumption market.
Continuously optimistic about blueberry industry leaders
with more of the following characteristics:

1. Early layout of the blueberry industry,
   and companies with sufficient high-quality blueberry land;
2. Insisting on the full-chain operation of harvesting, processing,
   cold chain, and brand marketing,
   with efficient cost control industry leaders;
3. Core retail end connecting high-quality customer distribution channels,
   and high-quality companies with blueberry production and export capabilities.

Risk warning

Intensified industry competition,
uncontrollable environmental factors,
product price decline,
and seedling research and development not meeting expectations.

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