CITIC Securities: Se espera que las ganancias de las empresas de transporte de petróleo alcancen un nuevo máximo en 2026

People’s Finance and News, March 27, a report from China CITIC Securities said that from March 20 to 24 the Strait of Hormuz passage volume was 2/1/5/7/3 vessels (with 127 vessels on February 27). Of these, over the past three days two product oil tankers passed through the strait; some crude oil tankers entering and exiting the strait and within the Persian Gulf shut down their own AIS signals throughout the entire process, leading to missing location data. The strait showed an initial signal of “partially restored passage capacity.” Based on the previously released report《Logistics and Travel Services Industry Oil Shipping Cycle Weekly Talks Series — VLCC Concentration Improves to Reshape Freight Rate Mechanisms》, it is estimated that the crude oil volume diverted to ports of Yanbu, Fujairah, and Oman would achieve 6–7 million barrels per day; if the passage volume recovers to 40% of the pre-conflict level, and considering demand substitution between the Red Sea and the US Gulf of Mexico, the actual demand shortfall will continue to narrow to within 10%. Focus on the marginal changes in the Strait of Hormuz passage capacity. In the short term, adjustments to supply chain methods that bring longer haul distances, and potential increases in TD22 (US Gulf-China) freight rates driven by strategic petroleum reserve releases, could support upward freight rate movements. Once the Strait’s passage capacity partially recovers, replenishment demand may also become a catalyst for a cyclical upturn. In 2026, oil shipping companies’ profits are expected to hit a new record high.