El precio del petróleo se dispara a 110 dólares, escalada importante del conflicto con Irán, ¡analistas advierten que podría prolongarse hasta mayo!

Israel’s airstrike on the South Pars gas field has completely broken the existing boundaries of the regional situation, with the intensity and duration of this Middle East conflict both exceeding market expectations.

After Israel launched an unprecedented attack on the South Pars gas field facilities, oil prices immediately surged, with the international benchmark Brent crude hovering around $108 per barrel on Thursday. Risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft’s Middle East chief analyst Torbjorn Soltvedt clearly stated in a research report on Wednesday that “this attack ‘strengthens our judgment that the conflict is most likely to continue until May, with no clear de-escalation path at present’.”

The situation has further complicated: According to Xinhua News Agency, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a statement on the 19th saying they launched the 63rd wave of the “Real Commitment-4” operation, “burning” U.S.-related oil facilities in retaliation. The statement claimed that Iran’s war with the U.S. and Israel has entered a “new phase.” Subsequently, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister issued a strong warning, stating that they reserve the right to “take military action if necessary.” Meanwhile, Iran continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, causing a significant portion of global oil supply routes to be obstructed, sharply increasing pressure on market supply.

Trump posted late Wednesday on Truth Social stating that Israel’s military will not attack the South Pars gas field again, “unless Iran foolishly decides to attack Qatar.” This statement implied that the U.S. was aware of and approved the attack in advance. According to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, the operation was indeed coordinated and approved by the Trump administration.

Conflict escalation: Iran’s counterattack affects multiple energy facilities

Iran’s retaliatory actions cover a wide range. Daniel Schneiderman, director of the Washington Global Policy Program at the University of Pennsylvania, told Axios that Tehran’s targets include “Qatar’s crown jewel”—the Ras Laffan industrial city, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility. Additionally, energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also been attacked.

Following the first round of Iranian missile strikes, Qatari officials immediately contacted U.S. officials, including White House envoy Steve Witkoff. The Saudi foreign minister issued a strong warning, reserving the right to military action. Currently, the White House and the Department of Defense have not commented on the matter.

The Strait of Hormuz dilemma: Iran’s military capabilities remain formidable

Although joint U.S.-Israel military actions have significantly weakened Iran’s ballistic missile and drone launching capabilities, analysts warn against overly optimistic assessments. Schneiderman pointed out that this is one of the main reasons why oil prices have not surged further.

However, Schneiderman also issued a key warning—this former official of the Biden administration’s Defense Department and State Department said, “Shahad launchers are highly mobile and difficult to target precisely. I believe Israel and the U.S. will continue for a long time to aim at destroying individual launchers and ammunition depots.” He added that Iran deploys some missiles on truck-mounted launchers, which are similarly difficult to eliminate precisely, stating, “Mobile launch platforms are not hard to operate.”

Schneiderman summarized: “Iran’s difficulty in taking these actions has increased compared to the early stages of the war, but they still have the capacity to exert significant pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.”

Risk spreading: Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea route pose the greatest threats

The analysts’ current greatest concern is that the conflict could further spread to key facilities that have not yet been damaged. Soltvedt warned in the research report that Israel’s strike on South Pars “could trigger attacks on facilities that have so far been unaffected.”

He specifically pointed out that “the biggest hidden danger” lies in attacks on Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipelines or Red Sea export facilities—these, along with the UAE’s Fujeirah port, form the only remaining major alternative oil transportation routes outside the Strait of Hormuz. If these facilities are damaged, the global energy market will face far more severe supply shocks than currently.

Several analysts remain cautious about de-escalation. Soltvedt explicitly stated that in the absence of a clear de-escalation pathway, the highest probability is that the conflict will continue until May. Schneiderman frankly admitted that “it’s hard to predict when de-escalation will occur,” but given the current situation, “Iran has no motivation to de-escalate.”

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