¿El tipo de cambio del renminbi sube a 6.85? Goldman Sachs pronostica que en 2026 el proceso de internacionalización se acelerará

Goldman Sachs’ Latest Research Issues Bold Prediction: RMB to Appreciate to 6.85 Against USD by 2026

Goldman Sachs has released groundbreaking research forecasting that by 2026, the Chinese yuan will appreciate to 6.85 per US dollar. This prediction reflects far more than mere exchange rate fluctuations—it underscores the deeper advancement of China’s yuan internationalization strategy.

Current Appreciation Momentum is Inevitable

As of November 26, the US dollar fell to 7.0824 against the onshore yuan and 7.0779 against the offshore yuan, both reaching new lows not seen in over a year. This is no mere market fluctuation but rather the collective result of policy measures and market forces working in concert.

Data shows that the yuan exchange rate index rose to 98.22 on November 21, marking a new high since April this year. Meanwhile, expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts have opened the door for yuan appreciation. Domestic monetary authorities have also been actively guiding this trend. The People’s Bank of China has continuously adjusted its daily midpoint fixing, while state-owned banks have frequently intervened in the foreign exchange market—these measures collectively propel the yuan’s upward trajectory.

Internationalization Serves as Core Driver

From a deeper perspective, the yuan’s appreciation reflects China’s government ambitions for internationalization. Kelvin Lam, senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, notes that this steady appreciation demonstrates confidence in the yuan, similar to the yuan’s refusal to devalue during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, thereby maintaining regional currency stability.

Kiyong Seong, Chief Asia Macro Strategist at Société Générale, believes that demonstrating the yuan’s resilience in a complex international market environment is powerful proof of promoting its elevated international status.

International Transaction Volume Surges Sharply

Latest data from the Bank for International Settlements reveals tangible progress in yuan internationalization. Since the previous survey in 2022, daily average trading volume of USD/CNY has grown by nearly 60%, reaching $781 billion, accounting for over 8% of global daily average foreign exchange trading volume. These figures indicate that international market demand for and participation in the yuan is rising rapidly.

Future Trajectory: Appreciation Will Continue

Comparing historical trends reveals an important shift: in 2018, the yuan depreciated by approximately 5% under the impact of US trade tensions, while in 2025, the yuan achieved appreciation of nearly 3%. This transformation reflects not only improved macroeconomic conditions but also the clarity of policy orientation.

Goldman Sachs analysts, based on these trends, forecast that exchange rates could touch the 7.0 yuan mark by year-end, and continue appreciating to 6.85 one year later. They further point out that based on comprehensive assessments of economic and non-economic factors, yuan internationalization has become a strategic priority for the Chinese government, with significant acceleration likely over the coming years.

This means that for international investors and market participants, fluctuations in the yuan’s exchange rate represent more than mere numerical changes—they constitute a direct reflection of the yuan’s rising position in the global financial landscape.