最近又看到有人拿“稳定币供应涨了=要冲了”“ETF净流入=场外钱都进来了”这种说法当圣旨…说白了，相关性真不等于因果。

Stablecoin supply increased = going to surge?
ETF net inflow = retail money is coming in?
说白了，相关性真不等于因果。
In other words, correlation does not equal causation.

稳定币多了可能只是大家把筹码搬到链上等机会，也可能是在别处亏完了先换成稳定币喘口气；
An increase in stablecoins might just mean people are moving chips onto the chain waiting for opportunities, or they might have lost money elsewhere and are switching to stablecoins to catch their breath;

ETF那点钱，有时候更像情绪温度计，不一定是主力进场的闸门。
That ETF money sometimes acts more like a thermometer of sentiment, not necessarily the gateway for main players to enter.

后来发现最容易吃亏的，反而是把这些指标当“开仓理由”的自己——尤其注意力一轮动到 meme、名人喊单那套，
Later, I realized the ones most likely to suffer losses are those who treat these indicators as “reasons to open positions”—especially when attention shifts to memes, celebrity calls,

新人一激动就去接最后一棒，老玩家劝也劝不住。
Newcomers get excited and jump in at the last moment, and veteran players can't even persuade them.

反正我现在看到“指标齐了”只会先问一句：钱到底打算买啥、买完准备怎么走？
Anyway, now when I see “indicators aligned,” I first ask: what does the money plan to buy, and how will they exit after buying?

先这样。
That's all for now.