Iran tấn công mạnh vào xuất khẩu khí heli của Qatar, ngành sản xuất chip toàn cầu đối mặt với khủng hoảng

问AI · Helium shortage may explode in weeks, how will chip manufacturers ensure production?

Iran's military strikes on Qatar's natural gas export facilities are turning an energy crisis into a systemic threat to the global semiconductor supply chain.

As a source of one-third of the world's helium supply, Qatar's Ras Laffan facility has suffered "extensive" damage, leading to a doubling of spot helium prices within 14 days, with contract premiums exceeding 30%.

As Qatar's state-owned energy company announces a 14% cut in annual helium exports, this crisis has evolved from an anticipated level to a reality shock—South Korean chip stocks have plummeted. South Korean chip giants Samsung and SK Hynix rely on Qatar for about 65% of their helium imports, and the market capitalization of South Korean chipmakers has evaporated by over $200 billion this month. Experts warn: The real shortage impact has not yet arrived, but "will truly explode in a few weeks."

Qatar's facilities are heavily damaged, and one-third of the global supply has suddenly disappeared

Qatar hosts the world's largest single natural gas field, and its Ras Laffan facility is the largest liquefied natural gas plant globally, where helium is extracted as a byproduct of natural gas production, accounting for about 30% of the world's helium supply.

On March 2, an Iranian drone attack forced Qatar's state-owned energy company QatarGas to halt the production of liquefied natural gas and "related products." Four days later, QatarGas declared "force majeure," meaning it could not fulfill contracts with customers.

Last Wednesday and Thursday, Ras Laffan was again attacked by Iran, and QatarGas subsequently reported "extensive" damage to the facility, with repair work expected to take years, and annual helium exports will be reduced by 14%.

According to a Wall Street Journal article, all three helium production facilities in Qatar have ceased operations. The publication of the American Chemical Society, C&EN, warns that "if the conflict lasts more than two weeks, the chaos faced by helium users may take months to resolve."

Phil Kornbluth, president of helium consulting firm Kornbluth Helium Consulting, stated:

"This makes the situation worse. The most optimistic scenario is that some helium production can resume in six weeks, but given the current situation, this is highly unlikely."

Helium spot prices have doubled within 14 days of the crisis, and contract premiums currently exceed 30%. Kornbluth expects prices to rise further, "if the downtime extends, contract prices could increase significantly, leaving plenty of room for price hikes."

However, Kornbluth also pointed out that the shortage has not truly arrived. Helium containers being loaded at the time of the conflict still need weeks to reach Asia. "No one has cut off supply yet, but in a few weeks, the shortage will truly explode."

Helium: The undervalued lifeline of chip manufacturing

In public perception, helium is merely an inert gas that makes balloons float, but in the semiconductor manufacturing field, it is an irreplaceable key material in the wafer cooling process.

In the etching process of chip manufacturing, helium needs to be continuously blown onto the back of the wafer to quickly and uniformly dissipate heat, maintaining a stable temperature on the wafer surface.

Jacob Feldgoise, an analyst at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technologies, pointed out that in this process, "helium is an excellent thermal conductor, and chip plants blow helium onto the back of the wafer to accelerate heat dissipation and maintain consistency."

Professor Jong-hwan Lee from Sangmyung University in South Korea clearly stated: under the current semiconductor manufacturing processes, there are no viable alternatives to helium for cooling wafers.

The industrial use of helium also extends to the medical and aerospace fields—medical industries use it to cool superconducting magnets in MRI machines, and the aerospace industry uses it to clean rocket fuel tanks. As companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin increase their launch frequencies, this demand continues to grow.

It is worth noting that the physical properties of helium make its storage and transportation extremely complex: helium molecules are very small, and even the tiniest gaps can cause leaks; liquid helium must be stored in insulated containers and transported through the Strait of Hormuz. These specialized containers can only preserve helium for 35 to 48 days, and after that, helium will vaporize and dissipate through pressure relief valves.

Currently, about 200 of these containers are stranded in the Middle East, each costing about $1 million, and the global reserve of containers is extremely limited. Kornbluth stated,

"Moving these containers out of Qatar and to other places where helium can be filled will take a considerable amount of time. This initial supply chain restructuring period could very well be the most severe phase of the shortage."

South Korean chip giants are hit hardest, with over $200 billion in market value evaporated

This crisis has had a particularly direct impact on South Korea's semiconductor industry.

According to a Wall Street Journal article, data from the Korea Trade Association shows that in 2025, 64.7% of South Korea's helium imports will come from Qatar.

Fitch Ratings noted in a report that South Korea is one of the countries most vulnerable to helium supply shortages globally, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—two of the largest memory chip manufacturers—facing significant supply risks.

The Seoul government has listed helium as one of the 14 semiconductor supply chain materials that need to be closely monitored due to war. Professor Jong-hwan Lee warned:

"Even if only a few materials are disrupted, it can shake the entire semiconductor manufacturing process, as each production stage relies on the previous one."

The market has reacted preemptively: South Korean chip manufacturers have seen their market value evaporate by over $200 billion this month, as investors digest expectations of a 15% to 20% decline in output by 2026.

According to a Wall Street Journal article, SK Hynix has a certain helium inventory and has additionally secured new supply channels, currently basically out of the short-term impact range. However, medium-term risks remain difficult to eliminate—even if supply is not completely interrupted, switching to verified alternative suppliers will also take time.

Bloomberg economist Michael Deng pointed out: "Helium shortages may force chip manufacturers to prioritize the production of higher-margin AI chips over lower-margin components." This means that the consumer chip market will be the first to feel the pressure.

Global supply structure and limitations of alternatives

Global helium production is highly concentrated.

The United States is the largest producer, with a production volume of 81 million cubic meters last year; Qatar, Algeria, and Russia are other major producers, but Russian supply has been restricted by U.S. and EU sanctions. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the United States has 8.5 billion cubic meters of recoverable helium reserves, while the rest of the world has 31.3 billion cubic meters.

Although the U.S. and Australia could theoretically provide alternative supplies, restructuring the supply chain is not a quick process. Kornbluth pointed out that about 200 specialized storage and transportation containers are stranded in the Middle East, and reallocating these containers and establishing new supply routes is one of the most challenging bottlenecks in this crisis.

Experts generally believe that a comprehensive helium crisis is unlikely to occur—in a shortage situation, the helium industry will allocate supplies based on importance, with the chip manufacturing and medical industries receiving priority.

Since helium accounts for a small proportion of the total production cost in semiconductors, chip plants are "willing to pay higher prices" to ensure supply. But the premise of this logic is that alternative supplies can arrive in a timely manner.

Bromine: The next potential flashpoint

The Wall Street Journal article also pointed out that, in addition to helium, another key semiconductor raw material, bromine, is also worth monitoring. Bromine is used in the semiconductor etching process, and high-purity hydrogen bromide is widely used in the polysilicon etching stage of DRAM and NAND flash memory manufacturing.

In South Korea, 97.5% of bromine imports come from Israel, making it one of the 14 semiconductor supply chain items with the highest dependence on the Middle East. Currently, bromine is still classified as a potential risk factor and is in a relatively safe zone, but once the situation further escalates, its vulnerability will be quickly exposed.