Não é especulação, é uma necessidade básica, os 4 valores únicos de previsão de mercado

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)

Recent, Polymarket completed a $400 million funding round, with its valuation rising to $15 billion. According to statistics, the nominal trading volume of prediction markets in March 2026 will reach $25.7 billion, a 10.6% month-on-month increase from $23.2 billion in February 2026; whereas last October, this figure was only $8.7 billion. Amidst the crypto market fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors and regional conflicts, prediction markets have become the most eye-catching sector in the crypto space. As prediction market trading volumes continue to grow rapidly, combined with Odaily’s previous publication of “Why Prediction Markets Are Not Gambling Platforms,” perhaps it’s time to discuss the unique value of prediction markets to set the record straight.

The Unique Value of Prediction Markets: Entertainment Consumption, Insurance Value, Risk Hedging, Truth Machines

The inspiration for the author to view prediction markets from the perspective of “non-gambling value” came from a post by Bitwise advisor Jeff Park titled “Most People’s Misunderstanding of Prediction Markets” published yesterday.

In this lengthy article of several thousand words, Jeff Park pointed out the similarities and differences between prediction markets and stock picking or poker games, and positively affirmed the entertainment, financial innovation, and precise information attributes of prediction markets.

If the article “Why Prediction Markets Are Not Gambling Platforms” analyzed in detail the differences between prediction markets and gambling platforms from price mechanisms, usage, user structure, and regulatory logic, today’s discussion aims to clarify their diverse values through this article.

Entertainment Consumption Stimulates Economic Development

In “The Theory of the Leisure Class,” American economist Veblen believed that the essence of the leisure class was not merely enjoying leisure, but using avoiding labor and extravagance as a symbolic system to gain prestige. Capitalism’s alienation of people through money is realized through various forms of consumption.

Today, the value of consumption is also evident.

In modern society with clear division of labor, consumption is a necessary process of value exchange, and entertainment itself is a form of economic consumption, one of humanity’s pursuits that distinguishes us from machines. For example, the entire sports industry’s output value is around $1 trillion; taking Nike as an example, they profit by controlling supply chains, manufacturing products, and completing sales; meanwhile, they shape the sports industry through sponsorships, endorsements, and sporting events. Based on the actual performance of various sports events and athletes, betting in prediction markets is also a form of entertainment that stimulates mental consumption, which in turn influences users of prediction markets and the general public’s attention to sports events, sports brand consumption, and entertainment spending.

Limited Insurance Protects Personal Interests

As Jeff Park pointed out in “Most People’s Misunderstanding of Prediction Markets”: “The value of derivatives lies in allowing risk transfer, meaning speculators belong to the insurance side (Odaily Planet Daily note: policyholders transfer uncertainty risks to risk-bearing speculators in exchange for a certainty cost). But in reality, government intervention distorts the true market prices for insurance holders, leading to insurance defaults. Without government intervention, there is no other way to achieve risk transfer in a transparent and open market.”

In this regard, prediction markets stand out from conventional derivatives in two major advantages: first, the event accuracy of prediction markets; second, their limited duration. The former means prediction markets are binary, well-defined propositions with no fuzzy loss estimation space, and settlement conditions are fully transparent and verifiable; the latter clarifies that the outcome of prediction markets is not artificially set by contract deadlines.

Furthermore, as Jeff Yass, founder of SIG (Kalshi’s official market maker), mentioned in a previous interview, “to some extent, prediction markets play the role of ‘new-style insurance’. In Florida, where hurricanes are frequent but insurance limits exist, users can hedge by betting on weather events such as ‘Is the wind speed in this area over 80 miles per hour?’ in prediction markets. This channel also saves the complex steps of traditional insurance claims, operations, and marketing.”

In summary, prediction markets provide cost clarity and fact-based guarantees for participants through well-defined betting events.

Risk Hedging to Address Event Crises

Recently, Kalshi announced the launch of a 24/7 commodities market offering price prediction services for products including crude oil, diesel, gold, silver, copper, lithium, natural gas, sugar, soybeans, wheat, corn, coffee, cocoa, and live cattle.

Jim Esposito, President of Citadel Securities, also stated at the recent Washington Semafor World Economic Forum that the company might provide liquidity for prediction markets, but places greater emphasis on their value in hedging geopolitical risks compared to sports events. Using the US midterm elections in November this year as an example, he said this event would be “one of the biggest risks faced by investor portfolios,” and prediction markets could become a new tool for institutional risk hedging.

From this perspective, investors holding “NO” related positions in prediction markets can hedge risks, allowing more flexible responses to fluctuations in commodity prices and economic conditions. Considering the surge in trading volume since the Iran-US conflict began on February 28, prediction markets are already serving as risk hedging tools for individuals and institutions.

Truth Revelation to Counter Media Bias

Beyond the above values, from an information pricing perspective, prediction markets also play a crucial role in countering media agenda-setting and bias.

American writer and media editor Ashley Rindsberg detailed the negative influence of The New York Times on numerous historic events in his book “The Eye of the Beholder: How The New York Times’ Misinformation, Distortion, and Fabrication Changed History,” including systemic softening of events like the Cuban Duranti repression, Stalin’s famine, Castro’s rise, Iraq’s WMDs, and Hitler’s rise. In these events, The New York Times, for information channels, ideology, and institutional self-protection, blurred the pursuit of truth, leading to a series of negative consequences.

Although prediction market rules for event judgment still heavily rely on media sources, as the industry platform develops, information transmission accelerates, and event contracts expand in reach, prediction markets are expected to become true truth machines to counter biases caused by staff preferences, workflows, ideology, and platform interests.

Previously, Crypto.com COO Ericnode stated that prediction markets could become a trillion-dollar market because users’ vested interests can improve accuracy by 30% compared to surveys.

In the near future, the roles, functions, and values prediction markets can realize will far exceed our previous imagination.

Recommended Reading:

Most People’s Misunderstanding of Prediction Markets

Why Prediction Markets Are Not Gambling Platforms

SIG Founder Jeff Yass on the Value of Prediction Markets