Guotai Junan Futuros: Fundamentais combinados com fatores de notícias, o duplo foco de carvão e petróleo oscila com tendência de fortalecimento

Recent strong-driven core of coking coal and coke comes from two aspects: firstly, on Monday, market reports indicated that Mongolia is facing limited coal shipments due to shortages in gasoline and diesel supplies. After investigation, it was found that there is no oil shortage locally, and the driving behind the shipment restrictions is not solely due to the rising transportation costs, but mainly because Mongolia’s large Tashan mine is actively controlling volume to maintain prices, which is expected to continue affecting loading at the mine mouth. Secondly, the market has once again mentioned supply-side reforms. However, from the perspective of the fermentation of this incident and its industry impact, we believe it is more inclined towards short-term emotional disturbances. On one hand, the number of new coal mines since 2015 has been relatively small, and due to the demand for supply guarantees, the rigid demand downstream has also suppressed irrational price increases; on the other hand, after the rise in upstream industrial product prices, it is difficult for the prices to continue transmitting down to the consumption link, lacking positive industry-driven momentum. Therefore, overall, short-term coal and coke prices still have certain upward driving forces, but the upward space may need continuous attention. It is recommended to use a combination of multiple futures contracts and selling out-of-the-money call options to hedge against subsequent spot and futures positions, thereby suppressing price increases. (Guotai Junan Futures)