#BTC #ETH Bitcoin, Ethereum midnight "double kill": $75,400 and $2,100, who is the bottom? Who is fleeing?

Macroeconomic "Three Mountains" pressing down, ETF net outflows for 10 consecutive days, the new Fed chair just took office and already shows hawkish claws—cryptomarket is experiencing the most painful week of 2026.
一、Rebound like "paper", bulls pressed to the ground and rubbed
5月24日凌晨，加密市场再度上演“冲高回落”的经典剧本。比特币过去24小时虽有小幅反弹，但连76,000美元的城门都没摸到就被打回原形。此前，5月上旬那一波气势如虹的反弹——从71,000美元直奔81,965美元——如今已被彻底抹去，5月所有涨幅“清零”。
Ethereum is even more brutal. Although it rebounded 2.5% intraday, it has fallen 8.4% over the past 30 days, with four consecutive weekly declines. Just two weeks ago, it was flaunting above $2,400, but now it fights to hold the psychological line at $2,000. This is not the result of some black swan event, but the macro "meat grinder" slowly crushing the bulls.
二、Bitcoin：$75,000 vital line, is the next "70" waving?
Technical: Bearish arrangement, even the 200-day moving average is a luxury Bitcoin daily chart EMA system has already formed a "standard bearish lineup": MA7, MA30 all below MA120. Every rebound near $76,000 feels like hitting an invisible wall—that's the selling pressure from a large amount of trapped orders. More deadly is the 200-day moving average (around $81,600–$82,400). XWIN Japan Research pointed out that the current pattern is very similar to March 2022: back then, BTC also faced resistance at the 200-day line, starting a long winter. Now, this "bull-bear dividing line" is high above, and Bitcoin can't even touch its shadow. Bollinger bands opening downward, price running close to the lower band. The lower band at $74,000—if this level is broken, the next visible target is $70,000. Once $70,000 is broken, "mid-term trend reversal" is no longer just a scare tactic.
Leverage minefield: Once it falls below $75,193, a stampede will come.
Although the fear index is only 28 (fear zone), the leverage structure remains sensitive. Coinglass data shows that if BTC drops below $75,193, the downward pressure from liquidations will quickly amplify. In the week of May 18, the entire market liquidated $657 million in 24 hours, 89% of which were longs—leverage longs are already "vulnerable" to collapse at a touch.
三、Ethereum: the "good kid" more miserable than Bitcoin
ETH/BTC rate continues southward. Over the past month, Bitcoin only fell 5.5%, but Ethereum dropped 8.2%—the high beta effect is no joke when falling.
Technical: $2,000 is the last shield
Ethereum daily chart also shows a standard bearish arrangement, EMA120 (around $2,150) like a mountain pressing down. On May 22, ETH tried to hit $2,145 but was jointly "dissuaded" by the 100-day moving average and wedge lower boundary.
$2,000–$2,030 is currently the most solid "buy order block" for bulls. After losing $2,100 on May 23, the price briefly dipped to $1,950, then barely bounced back above $2,100. But if it tests $2,000 again, whether it can hold is uncertain. The middle Bollinger band at $2,083 has not stabilized yet—old technical adage "if the middle band is not broken, the rebound is a continuation of the downtrend" is repeatedly validated on ETH.
Liquidation "nuclear button": $2,172 and $1,971
Coinglass's liquidation map shows two "bombs":
- Break above $2,172 → mainstream CEX liquidates $1.466 billion in shorts, possibly triggering a short squeeze and pushing ETH violently higher.
- Break below $1,971 → $613 million in longs face liquidation, blood flowing.
Currently, the price oscillates around $2,100, with bulls and bears waiting for the other to fire first.
四、Macroeconomics "Three Mountains": US bonds, oil prices, Wash
Why can't regulatory good news (Clarity Act) move the market? Why are ETF outflows continuous? Because macro factors have already held the market down.
1️⃣ US bond yields "break 5", opportunity cost kills
On May 21, 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.01%, the first time since 2007. With risk-free rates at 5%, who still wants to hold zero-yield Bitcoin and Ethereum? MOVE volatility index jumped 14.7% in a single day, capital retreating from risk assets.
2️⃣ Oil prices break 100, inflation "rekindled"
Iran situation + Strait of Hormuz blockade, WTI and Brent crude both above $100/barrel. US April CPI YoY 3.8%, PPI YoY 6%, all above expectations. The market has completely abandoned the hope of rate cuts in 2026—CME FedWatch shows the probability of further rate hikes this year has risen to 52%.
3️⃣ Fed Chair Wash: hawkish king
On May 13, Kevin Wash replaced Powell as the new Fed chair. Known for "monetary discipline," "high real interest rates," and "balance sheet reduction." Historical data shows that every Fed chair transition sees BTC retreat 77%–84% on average. Although not as exaggerated this time, Wash's first move has already burned the crypto market significantly.
五、ETF outflows continue: institutions "hit and withdraw"
Bitcoin spot ETF recorded over $1 billion net outflow last week (by May 23), the first since late January. Ethereum spot ETF even worse—10 consecutive days of net outflows, the longest since March 2025, with about $216 million flowing out in a week.
Q1 13F filings reveal more intriguing signals:
- Harvard endowment: Bitcoin ETF holdings cut by 43%, fully liquidated Ethereum ETF, funds shifted to AI computing power.
- Goldman Sachs: reducing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, liquidating XRP and Solana-related products.
- Jane Street: although reducing Bitcoin ETF holdings by 71%, increased Ethereum ETF by $82 million—likely a hedging move as a market maker, not a bullish signal.
One sentence: smart money is reducing positions, not bottom-fishing.
六、Ethereum's "internal injury": TVL down, Gas fees collapsed
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum has another "internal bomb": on-chain activity plummeting.
Total DeFi TVL share on Ethereum has dropped from 63.5% early 2025 to 53–54%, with Solana, Base, BNB Chain rapidly grabbing market share.
Mainnet Gas fees fell to $0.01–$0.04, the lowest in PoS era. Mainnet 24h total revenue less than $380,000, Layer 2 handles 95% of transactions.
Low Gas means ETH burning mechanism is failing, supply may revert to inflation.
Market begins to doubt: "Can Ethereum still capture value?" This is not a technical analysis issue—it's a fundamental belief shake.
七、Scenario analysis: what’s next?
Bearish scenario (more probable)
BTC: if it cannot break above $76,014 and falls below $75,193, targets are $74,400 → $74,000–$73,500 → $70,000.
If $70,000 is lost, mid-term trend reverses.
ETH: if it cannot hold $2,100 and break above $2,150, rebound ends, targets are $2,030–$2,000 → $1,950 → $1,770–$1,890.
Extreme case: $1,550–$1,650.
Trigger conditions: US bond yields continue rising / oil prices stay high / ETF outflows enter the 3rd week.
Bullish scenario (requires strong signals)
BTC: volume breakout above $76,744 and hold, then challenge $78,000–$79,400, aiming for $82,724 (Bollinger upper band) or even the 200-day moving average.
ETH: volume breakout above $2,150 and daily close above, ETF turns into continuous net inflow, US bond yields fall below 4.8%.
Note: if BTC stabilizes at $74,000 and ETH at $2,000 with rebounds, short-term risk-reward (3:1) is quite good— but only if macro conditions don’t worsen again.
八、Last "lifeline": Clarity Act still hopeful
Don’t forget, on May 14, the Senate Banking Committee passed the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" with 15 votes in favor, 9 against. Once the full Senate approves, ETH will be explicitly classified as a commodity, staking yields legalized, and CFTC takes regulatory control.
This is a historic positive for Ethereum and a major compliance breakthrough for Bitcoin.
But why doesn’t the market rally? Because macro "fast variables" crush the regulatory "slow variables"—like being told you’ll win the lottery tomorrow but your house is on fire today, your focus is only on the fire. If US bond yields and oil prices ease marginally, this bill could be the fuse for the next rally.
The current market is not dictated by technicals or news—it's the 10-year US bond yield and Iran’s oil tankers that matter.
$75,400 Bitcoin and $2,100 Ethereum seem close to the bottom, but every rebound looks like "trap buying."
If you lack hedging tools, lack stop-loss discipline, now "left-side bottom-fishing" is like catching flying knives.
This article is based on public market data, technical indicators, and macro information, and does not constitute any investment advice.