Bitcoin Price Prediction: NVT golden cross suggests BTC may reach a local peak

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 7% over the past two weeks, despite market expectations that The Federal Reserve (FED) is likely to maintain interest rates at its meeting on July 30. However, Bitcoin still shows signs of strengthening. Nevertheless, some indicators suggest that the market may be entering an overheating zone.

Is the Bitcoin market about to enter an overheating zone? According to a recent article by contributor burakkesmeci on CryptoQuant Quicktake, the Bitcoin network transaction value (NVT) is experiencing a golden cross rise. Importantly, this upward trend is starting to signal signs of market overheating.

For beginners, the Bitcoin NVT golden cross is a technical indicator that compares the short-term and long-term moving averages of the NVT ratio to identify potential market tops or bottoms. When the short-term NVT exceeds the long-term average, it usually indicates that Bitcoin is overvalued and may face a short-term pullback.

It is worth noting that this indicator has successfully predicted three local tops so far in 2025. The first occurred on February 5, when the NVT golden cross reached 2.68, while the BTC trading price was $97,600, followed by a 23.65% pullback.

On March 24, the indicator peaked at 2.87 when the BTC price was around $87,500, then it pulled back by 16.06%. The most recent pullback occurred on June 16, when the BTC trading price was $106,800, and the indicator rose to 2.21, after which the price fell by 9.87%.

Currently, the NVT golden cross is at 1.98. Although it has not yet broken through the key threshold of 2.2, its upward trend suggests that the market may be brewing overheating. CryptoQuant analysts explained:

"Breaking through the previous high point indicates a mild bullish signal, suggesting that momentum is strengthening. If the indicator breaks through 2.2 again, it may imply a local peak. But don't be quick to exit—historically, this indicator has stayed above 2.2 for several days."

In summary, burakkesmeci pointed out that while breaking the level of 2.2 may indicate that Bitcoin is warming up in the short term, it may also herald the return of a bullish momentum in the medium term. That said, there is still significant divergence in opinions regarding the short-term price movement of BTC.

Analysts have differing opinions on the price trend of Bitcoin

The NVT golden cross indicates that Bitcoin may still have room for a rise before reaching a potential local top. However, some analysts expect a short-term correction before Bitcoin sets a new high.

For example, well-known cryptocurrency analyst Chistian Chifoi described the current price trend of BTC as "a deceptive setup" and warned that it could trap bulls before the price of BTC skyrockets to a historical high of 160,000 USD (ATH).

At the same time, on-chain analysis company Glassnode predicts that the short-term peak for BTC will reach $117,000. According to Gate's market data, as of the time of writing, the trading price of BTC is $107,649.3, having decreased by 1.67% in the past 24 hours.

(Source: NewsBTC)