From the beginning of the year until now, the USD/JPY has been fluctuating between 152 and 160, and by mid-May it was still hovering around 159, with the Bank of Japan seemingly caught in the middle and unable to move. Many people ask me if the yen can be invested in, and I think you first need to understand why the yen is so weak.
仔細看的話，日圓持續走弱背後有幾個結構性原因。 Looking closely, there are several structural reasons behind the yen's continued weakness. 美日利差還在那擺著，美國利率遠高於日本，導致套利交易頻繁上演——投資者借低息日圓去投美元資產，日圓賣壓就這樣堆積起來。 The US-Japan interest rate differential remains, with US rates far higher than Japan’s, leading to frequent arbitrage trades—investors borrow low-interest yen to invest in dollar assets, piling up selling pressure on the yen. 加上日本新政府推出大規模財政刺激，發債增加，市場擔心財政風險，進一步壓低日圓。 Additionally, Japan’s new government has launched large-scale fiscal stimulus, increasing bond issuance, and market concerns about fiscal risks further depress the yen. 美國經濟相對穩健，通膨黏著力強，川普政府的強勢美元政策也在撐著美元指數。 The US economy is relatively stable, with strong inflation stickiness, and Trump’s administration’s strong dollar policy is also supporting the dollar index. 而日本這邊經濟基本面疲弱，消費不振，進口通膨墊高物價，實質購買力受壓。 Meanwhile, Japan’s economic fundamentals are weak, with sluggish consumption, import-driven inflation pushing up prices, and real purchasing power under pressure. 中東局勢也成了變數，日本高度仰賴中東原油進口，荷莫茲海峽被封鎖直接威脅能源安全，這也加重了日圓的下行壓力。 The Middle East situation also adds uncertainty; Japan relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil imports, and the blockade of the Hormuz Strait directly threatens energy security, further increasing downward pressure on the yen.
這就帶出了一個問題：日幣可以投資嗎？ This raises a question: can the yen be invested in? 短期來看可能不太樂觀。 In the short term, it may not look very optimistic. 日本央行的政策轉向一直很謹慎，原本市場預期4月底會升息，結果因為中東局勢急轉直下，央行總裁植田和男的態度明顯轉變，強調衝突帶來的不確定性讓全球金融市場持續動盪，原油價格飆升對日本經濟造成直接壓力。 The Bank of Japan’s policy shift has been very cautious; initially, the market expected a rate hike by the end of April, but due to the sudden escalation of the Middle East situation, Governor Ueda Kazuo’s stance changed markedly, emphasizing that uncertainties from conflicts keep global financial markets volatile, and soaring oil prices directly pressure the Japanese economy. 所以4月那次會議央行選擇按兵不動，政策利率維持在0.75%。 Therefore, at the April meeting, the BOJ chose to hold steady, keeping the policy rate at 0.75%. 不過市場已經把目光轉向6月的會議，目前市場對6月升息的預期機率升高到76%，如果央行真的在6月升息至1.0%，那美日利差會縮窄，可能會吸引一些套利資金回流。 However, the market is now focusing on the June meeting, with expectations of a rate hike increasing to 76%. If the BOJ actually raises rates to 1.0% in June, the US-Japan interest differential will narrow, potentially attracting some arbitrage capital back.
從機構預測來看，摩根大通的日本外匯策略主管持有華爾街最悲觀的預期，認為到2026年底日圓可能跌至164的水準，理由是日圓基本面依舊疲弱，進入明年後難有根本性好轉。 According to institutional forecasts, JPMorgan’s head of Japan FX strategy holds the most pessimistic outlook on Wall Street, believing the yen could fall to 164 by the end of 2026, citing the continued weakness of Japan’s fundamentals and the lack of a fundamental improvement into next year. 法國巴黎銀行則預期日圓匯率將在年底下探至160，分析指出全球宏觀環境預計仍相對有利於風險情緒，這通常會支撐套利交易，而日本央行行動的審慎與聯準會可能比預期更鷹派的立場，都會讓美元兌日圓維持在高檔區間。 Meanwhile, BNP Paribas expects the yen to dip to 160 by year-end, with analysis indicating that the global macro environment is still relatively favorable for risk sentiment, which typically supports arbitrage trades. The BOJ’s cautious stance and the Fed’s potentially more hawkish position than expected will keep USD/JPY in a high range.
那日幣可以投資嗎？這取決於你怎麼看長期趨勢。 So, can the yen be invested in? It depends on your view of the long-term trend. 短期內日圓應該還會延續弱勢盤整，美元兌日圓大概在152到158區間來回測試。 In the short term, the yen is likely to continue its weak consolidation, with USD/JPY testing the 152 to 158 range back and forth. 如果一路殺到160關卡，日本當局出手干預的可能性會升高，但這類措施通常只能爭取時間，很難從根本上扭轉趨勢。 If it drops all the way to 160, the likelihood of intervention by Japanese authorities increases, but such measures usually only buy time and are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the trend. 真正的轉折點還是得看日本內部的結構改革能否端出實績，只有當經濟成長動能明顯提升，工資物價的良性循環站穩腳步，日幣的強勢底氣才能真正建立起來。 The real turning point depends on whether Japan’s internal structural reforms can deliver results; only when economic growth momentum significantly improves and wages and prices enter a healthy cycle can the yen’s strength be truly established.
如果你問日幣可以投資嗎，我的建議是這樣的：有旅遊消費需要的朋友可以分注買入，滿足日後需要； If you ask whether the yen can be invested in, my advice is: friends who need it for travel expenses can buy in small portions to meet future needs; 對於希望在外匯交易中獲利的投資者，則需要參考日本央行政策、美日利差、全球風險情緒這幾個關鍵因素，同時一定要考慮自身財務狀況及風險承受能力。 For investors aiming to profit from forex trading, they need to consider key factors such as BOJ policies, the US-Japan interest differential, and global risk sentiment, while also taking into account their own financial situation and risk tolerance. 如果想要實際操作，可以考慮在受監管的平台上練習，比如Mitrade就提供70多個可交易貨幣對，還有免費模擬帳戶可以用來練習，不用擔心真實資金風險。 If you want to trade practically, consider practicing on regulated platforms, such as Mitrade, which offers over 70 tradable currency pairs and free demo accounts for practice, so you don’t have to worry about real capital risks.
最近一直在看日幣的行情，說實話這波貶值確實有點兇。
From the beginning of the year until now, the USD/JPY has been fluctuating between 152 and 160, and by mid-May it was still hovering around 159, with the Bank of Japan seemingly caught in the middle and unable to move.
Many people ask me if the yen can be invested in, and I think you first need to understand why the yen is so weak.
仔細看的話，日圓持續走弱背後有幾個結構性原因。
Looking closely, there are several structural reasons behind the yen's continued weakness.
美日利差還在那擺著，美國利率遠高於日本，導致套利交易頻繁上演——投資者借低息日圓去投美元資產，日圓賣壓就這樣堆積起來。
The US-Japan interest rate differential remains, with US rates far higher than Japan’s, leading to frequent arbitrage trades—investors borrow low-interest yen to invest in dollar assets, piling up selling pressure on the yen.
加上日本新政府推出大規模財政刺激，發債增加，市場擔心財政風險，進一步壓低日圓。
Additionally, Japan’s new government has launched large-scale fiscal stimulus, increasing bond issuance, and market concerns about fiscal risks further depress the yen.
美國經濟相對穩健，通膨黏著力強，川普政府的強勢美元政策也在撐著美元指數。
The US economy is relatively stable, with strong inflation stickiness, and Trump’s administration’s strong dollar policy is also supporting the dollar index.
而日本這邊經濟基本面疲弱，消費不振，進口通膨墊高物價，實質購買力受壓。
Meanwhile, Japan’s economic fundamentals are weak, with sluggish consumption, import-driven inflation pushing up prices, and real purchasing power under pressure.
中東局勢也成了變數，日本高度仰賴中東原油進口，荷莫茲海峽被封鎖直接威脅能源安全，這也加重了日圓的下行壓力。
The Middle East situation also adds uncertainty; Japan relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil imports, and the blockade of the Hormuz Strait directly threatens energy security, further increasing downward pressure on the yen.
這就帶出了一個問題：日幣可以投資嗎？
This raises a question: can the yen be invested in?
短期來看可能不太樂觀。
In the short term, it may not look very optimistic.
日本央行的政策轉向一直很謹慎，原本市場預期4月底會升息，結果因為中東局勢急轉直下，央行總裁植田和男的態度明顯轉變，強調衝突帶來的不確定性讓全球金融市場持續動盪，原油價格飆升對日本經濟造成直接壓力。
The Bank of Japan’s policy shift has been very cautious; initially, the market expected a rate hike by the end of April, but due to the sudden escalation of the Middle East situation, Governor Ueda Kazuo’s stance changed markedly, emphasizing that uncertainties from conflicts keep global financial markets volatile, and soaring oil prices directly pressure the Japanese economy.
所以4月那次會議央行選擇按兵不動，政策利率維持在0.75%。
Therefore, at the April meeting, the BOJ chose to hold steady, keeping the policy rate at 0.75%.
不過市場已經把目光轉向6月的會議，目前市場對6月升息的預期機率升高到76%，如果央行真的在6月升息至1.0%，那美日利差會縮窄，可能會吸引一些套利資金回流。
However, the market is now focusing on the June meeting, with expectations of a rate hike increasing to 76%. If the BOJ actually raises rates to 1.0% in June, the US-Japan interest differential will narrow, potentially attracting some arbitrage capital back.
從機構預測來看，摩根大通的日本外匯策略主管持有華爾街最悲觀的預期，認為到2026年底日圓可能跌至164的水準，理由是日圓基本面依舊疲弱，進入明年後難有根本性好轉。
According to institutional forecasts, JPMorgan’s head of Japan FX strategy holds the most pessimistic outlook on Wall Street, believing the yen could fall to 164 by the end of 2026, citing the continued weakness of Japan’s fundamentals and the lack of a fundamental improvement into next year.
法國巴黎銀行則預期日圓匯率將在年底下探至160，分析指出全球宏觀環境預計仍相對有利於風險情緒，這通常會支撐套利交易，而日本央行行動的審慎與聯準會可能比預期更鷹派的立場，都會讓美元兌日圓維持在高檔區間。
Meanwhile, BNP Paribas expects the yen to dip to 160 by year-end, with analysis indicating that the global macro environment is still relatively favorable for risk sentiment, which typically supports arbitrage trades. The BOJ’s cautious stance and the Fed’s potentially more hawkish position than expected will keep USD/JPY in a high range.
那日幣可以投資嗎？這取決於你怎麼看長期趨勢。
So, can the yen be invested in? It depends on your view of the long-term trend.
短期內日圓應該還會延續弱勢盤整，美元兌日圓大概在152到158區間來回測試。
In the short term, the yen is likely to continue its weak consolidation, with USD/JPY testing the 152 to 158 range back and forth.
如果一路殺到160關卡，日本當局出手干預的可能性會升高，但這類措施通常只能爭取時間，很難從根本上扭轉趨勢。
If it drops all the way to 160, the likelihood of intervention by Japanese authorities increases, but such measures usually only buy time and are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the trend.
真正的轉折點還是得看日本內部的結構改革能否端出實績，只有當經濟成長動能明顯提升，工資物價的良性循環站穩腳步，日幣的強勢底氣才能真正建立起來。
The real turning point depends on whether Japan’s internal structural reforms can deliver results; only when economic growth momentum significantly improves and wages and prices enter a healthy cycle can the yen’s strength be truly established.
如果你問日幣可以投資嗎，我的建議是這樣的：有旅遊消費需要的朋友可以分注買入，滿足日後需要；
If you ask whether the yen can be invested in, my advice is: friends who need it for travel expenses can buy in small portions to meet future needs;
對於希望在外匯交易中獲利的投資者，則需要參考日本央行政策、美日利差、全球風險情緒這幾個關鍵因素，同時一定要考慮自身財務狀況及風險承受能力。
For investors aiming to profit from forex trading, they need to consider key factors such as BOJ policies, the US-Japan interest differential, and global risk sentiment, while also taking into account their own financial situation and risk tolerance.
如果想要實際操作，可以考慮在受監管的平台上練習，比如Mitrade就提供70多個可交易貨幣對，還有免費模擬帳戶可以用來練習，不用擔心真實資金風險。
If you want to trade practically, consider practicing on regulated platforms, such as Mitrade, which offers over 70 tradable currency pairs and free demo accounts for practice, so you don’t have to worry about real capital risks.