#AugustNFPReportComing Yes — weak NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data could significantly reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September, but ADP (Average Production Data) alone is likely not enough. The key point is that the Fed is currently trying to balance two risks: weakening employment and still high inflation. * ADP: +38,000 in August, the weakest increase in the private sector since January. * NFP consensus: Approximately +53-56,000 compared to -23,000 in July. Unemployment is expected to be around 4.1%. * Markets had recently priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in September at approximately 60-65%, but Waller's comments have already lowered expectations. What Do the August NFP Data Mean for the Fed? **August NFP Data: Probable Market Interpretation: September Rate Hike** < 0K Labor market deteriorating sharply 🔻 Very low probability 0–30K Clear weakness 🔻 Probability of statement significantly decreases 30–60K Weak but not catastrophic ⚖️ Very close 60–100K Labor market stabilizing 🔺 Rate hike still possible >100K Stronger than expected 🔺 Probability of rate hike sharply increases However, NFP is not a single number. I would track these three numbers simultaneously: 1. Payrolls — headline employment 2. Unemployment rate — likely more important if it jumps from 4.1% 3. Average hourly earnings — very important because inflation remains a problem for the Fed. This is especially important now, given that August services sector data showed strong demand and high price pressures while employment remained weak. My interpretation: If NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) remains below ~30,000 + unemployment rises above 4.2% + wages fall → the probability of a September rate hike may decrease. Conversely: If NFP >75-100,000 + unemployment at 4.1% + wages increase by 0.3% or more on a monthly basis → the Fed will likely keep a rate hike on the table. And there's an important point: the internal debate within the Fed isn't simply "weak employment = no rate hike." While Waller says he might support keeping rates steady if inflation continues to fall, Chairman Kevin Warsh is far more concerned about inflation not being sufficiently under control. So a weak NFP could halt a rate hike – but it would likely need to be weak enough to shift the Fed's assessment of labor market risk, rather than simply failing to meet its 55,000 estimate. For the markets, I would pay particular attention not just to the headline, but to the combination of NFP data + unemployment figures + wages. $XRP ‌$ABT ‌$SPCX ‌

$XRP XRPUSDT 100x long +534.49% (1.3697→1.4484). Macro driver: On September 3, Fed Governor Waller's remarks sent a dovish signal, hinting that rate hikes could be paused if employment data weakened; the dollar index fell 0.3% to 101.2 that day, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 5 bp to 4.21%. Risk assets rebounded across the board, with BTC rising 3.2% to 68,500. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike falling from 58.5% to 52%, while the probability of another hike this year declined from 71.5% to 65%. Amid expectations of improved liquidity, XRP, as a high-beta asset, attracted an influx of funds, with its 24-hour trading volume rising from an average of $800 million at the end of August to $1.4 billion. 100x leverage magnified the macro breathing window to +534%, but any hawkish revision would end in forced liquidation. $BTC $ETH #Gate用户突破6000万

I was just about to go to the forum and start cursing, but then I looked at my balance and thought, forget it—the market is always right. During the repeated intraday volatility, I saw $MYX jumping up and down, but the volume was completely off. Trading volume was low, and there were no buyers on the way up—isn't this just setting up for a drop? Shorted at 0.2007. I just checked, and at 0.0682, the +1299.9% profit has stabilized. This is what it feels like to have the market in your hands—so satisfying. Close 70% first, and move the stop-loss on the remaining 30% up to the entry price, letting the profits run on their own. If it rebounds, protect the position; if it doesn't, keep taking profits. After these days of trading, I can finally give everyone an answer. Put risk control first—that's rationality; cutting losses only after taking a hit—that's making a heroic sacrifice. This move is over, so don't chase it. I'll announce the next signal as soon as possible. We'll wait for a more comfortable entry and not rush. $XRP $SOL