6.15 Bitcoin Market Outlook

$BTC
Bitcoin current price approximately 65,400, 24-hour increase of about 1.2%, belonging to a weak rebound after a previous sharp decline. Market sentiment is in extreme fear, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at only 18; at the same time, market trading volume has shrunk by about 45% compared to earlier, with low capital participation, indicating insufficient rebound momentum.

Entry: 655-659 range for accumulation, aiming for 665, watch 635-620.

Core fundamentals and news:
Short-term rebound catalyst: Trump’s statement promoting the US-Iran peace agreement, easing geopolitical risks, slightly restoring risk assets; combined with the US stock spot Bitcoin ETF’s single-day net inflow of 85.9 million USD, providing short-term capital support.

Institutional sentiment remains cautious: Institutional funds show divergence, Grayscale ETF still has a net outflow of 31.64 million USD, not yet forming a sustained inflow trend, mainstream institutions tend to wait and see.

Medium to long-term structural pressure:
Bitcoin’s total network hash rate continues to decline, with mining difficulty decreasing by 10.09% on June 14, the 11th largest single-day drop in history; many listed mining companies are shifting strategies towards AI data center construction, miners are flowing 10,000 to 12,000 BTC daily into exchanges, with selling pressure remaining high.

Market funds continue to rotate into AI tracks, overall liquidity in the crypto market is under pressure, which is one of the core factors suppressing the market in the medium term.

Macroeconomic environment: The Fed’s rate cut expectations continue to be delayed, some officials signal a hawkish stance, and global risk assets are under valuation pressure.

Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the trend remains clearly downward, with prices below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which are in a bearish alignment; RSI is at a low level but has not formed a bullish divergence, combined with significantly insufficient rebound volume, currently characterized as a weak rebound during a downtrend, with no reversal signals yet. #比特币反弹