‍#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

SpaceX going public soon, will Tesla follow the rally?

Tesla closed last night at $391.00, a significant drop of 6.56% for the day, with a trading volume of 63.42 million shares, and a transaction value reaching $25.351 billion, with a total market capitalization of $1.47 trillion. The stock price quickly fell from an intraday high of $424.68 to a low of $388.59, closing near a three-month low, forming a typical “volume-driven long bearish candle.” Market sentiment is suppressed by multiple factors: the overall correction of the US tech sector, lowered sales expectations for Broadcom AI chips raising doubts about AI infrastructure investment enthusiasm; Tesla’s vehicle sales outlook being downgraded, with significant declines in the Chinese and EU markets year-over-year; despite JPMorgan upgrading its rating, the market pays more attention to the lagging progress of its Robotaxi deployment and the underwhelming FSD subscription conversion, putting valuation logic under pressure.

‌Technical indicator analysis‌

‌📊 RSI indicator: current value is 48.72, in a neutral to slightly weak zone, indicating short-term selling pressure is fully released but not yet oversold, rebound momentum still needs confirmation;

‌📈 MACD pattern: the fast and slow lines form a death cross below the zero axis, with the green bars continuously expanding, indicating bearish momentum dominates, and trend structure is clearly weakening;

‌📉 Bollinger Bands structure: the stock price has broken below the middle band ($412), closely following the lower band ($383.49), with bandwidth at a historical high, reflecting a sharp increase in volatility, belonging to a trend-based breakdown correction rather than short-term oscillation;

‌📌 Moving average system: the stock price has fallen below the 50-day moving average ($405.21) and the 200-day moving average ($412.13), with a “death cross” appearing in the long-term bullish moving averages, indicating a mid-term trend shift from bull to bear, and the technicals entering a critical observation period.

‌Key support and resistance levels‌

‌🛡️ Support levels:

‌$388.59: the lowest price of the day, forming a short-term bull-bear dividing line;

‌$383.49: Bollinger lower band, a strong technical support, breaking below will open the downside space;

‌$375.00–378.00: Q1 2026 platform low and the starting point of the December 2025 rally, serving as the last line of defense for the mid-term bull;

‌$360.00: key psychological support in Q4 2025, losing this will trigger a wave of programmed stop-losses.

‌🚀 Resistance levels:

‌$395.00: previous day’s closing price and the 5-day moving average coincide, the first resistance for short-term rebound;

‌$405.21: 50-day moving average, if not effectively突破, will continue the downtrend;

‌$412.13: 200-day moving average, the lifeline for mid-term bulls, a breakthrough will rekindle market confidence;

‌$420.00–425.00: dense area of Q2 2026 highs, a strong resistance zone, requiring volume breakout to confirm reversal.

‌Market outlook‌

‌⏱️ Short-term (1–2 weeks):

Market focus on the June 10 FSD V13.3 update and Robotaxi unsupervised testing progress. If Tesla announces the first driverless operation in Austin or San Francisco, the stock may stabilize and rebound in the $380–390 range; continued delays or safety incidents could push it down to $375 support.

‌📆 Mid-term (3–6 months):

Key variables are the突破 of 15 million FSD subscriptions and clear timelines for Cybercab mass production. If Q3 2026 vehicle gross margin rises above 18% and the Robotaxi fleet exceeds 2,500 vehicles, the valuation system will shift from “traditional automakers” to “AI mobility platforms,” with a target price of $480–520.

‌🔭 Long-term (1–3 years):

If Tesla successfully builds an “autonomous driving + humanoid robot + self-developed chips” ecosystem, with Terafab chips reaching mass production and Optimus robots surpassing 1 million units annually, its long-term value will surpass Apple and Nvidia, becoming the only infrastructure platform for global AI endpoints and physical-world interaction, with a market cap potentially hitting $3–4 trillion.

‌Trading suggestions‌

‌⚡ Short-term traders:

Avoid chasing above $400; if the price retraces and stabilizes in the $380–385 range, consider light long positions with stop-loss below $375, targeting $395–405.

‌📅 Mid-term investors:

Ideal entry zone is $375–385, buy in batches, with a target of $450–480, based on “FSD ecosystem explosion + Robotaxi inflection point + self-developed chip breakthrough,” holding period 6–12 months.

What do you think about Tesla’s stock price? Is now an ideal bottoming position? Share your thoughts in the comments and teach Xiao Caishen how to play US stocks.