I. Fundamental bearish signals (this round's core decline)

1. MSTR (Strategy) sold BTC for the first time in three years, breaking the long-standing market belief of "holding without selling," loosening institutional holding logic, and causing capital to flee for safety.

2. The US BTC spot ETF has experienced 11 consecutive days of net capital outflows, with redemptions exceeding 3.4 billion USD, institutional buying has dried up, turning into continuous selling, and the core support for the bull market has disappeared.

3. Large BTC transfer from Mt. Gox in Mentougou (739 million USD), market worries about large-scale sell pressure materializing, panic sentiment spreading.

4. US stock AI sector continues to hit new highs, funds are flowing out of the crypto market, and safe-haven funds are primarily flowing into the stock market.

5. 1.48 billion USD liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with consecutive long liquidations triggering a stampede downward.

II. Technical key levels

• Short-term resistance: first resistance at 68,500, second resistance at 70,300, only if it stabilizes above 70,000 can a rebound be expected;

• Short-term support: first support at 66,200 (intraday low), a valid break below then targets 65,500, strong support at 62,500;

• Indicators: Daily RSI enters oversold zone, indicating a short-term technical slight rebound demand, but the downward trend remains unchanged, and rebounds are mostly weak corrections.
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